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May develop a bad case of defenestration. Kinda stunning how bad that guy's opsec was, but on the other hand Putin wants people to know he was behind the assas

May develop a bad case of defenestration. Kinda stunning how bad that guy's opsec was, but on the other hand Putin wants people to know he was behind the assassination, otherwise he wouldn't have used Novichok. So maybe those involved don't feel the need to be super cagey about it.

dvfjsdhgfv 6y ago
While that's true, for some reason Putin always tries to pretend his hands are clean. He wants the dissidents know they will be punished, but officially he will deny any involvement of Kremlin. In this case, it will be a bit harder to pull off.
- GVIrish 6y ago
  That's part and parcel of Putin's Chekist paradigm of obvious aggression combined with denials and disinformation. The idea is to create enough doubt and lies that people feel like the truth is unknowable. But everyone still gets the message that Putin can and will kill you if he so wishes.
bt1a 6y ago
>> Putin wants people to know he was behind the assassination Actually, part of this agent's orders was to scrub the underwear clean after the poisoning. It was public knowledge that Putin was trailing this guy, but I believe they wanted to keep it unknown that they tried to assassinate him.
- m12k 6y ago
  Well, unprovable at least, probably not unknown. Putin is the kinda guy that leans heavily into concepts like plausible deniability, and he'll settle for implausible deniability if he has to.
SXX 6y ago
>> otherwise he wouldn't have used Novichok. The whole point of using biological weapons like these is that it's almost impossible to prove that poisoning actually took a place. No one would ever find out for sure if he would die and only reason he still alive is few lucky conditions. In his earlier investigation video Navalny himself told about two previous cases where he and his wife was likely almost killed, but they never suppose it was poisoning since it's impossible to understand it unless you actually dying. Only now they found out that the same FSB agents followed them on the trips earlier where they became sick with no reason.
- GVIrish 6y ago
  If Putin wanted to do something that is untraceable he wouldn't use a nerve agent that is exclusively used by his regime. He could easily stage a 'robbery gone wrong' plot or an unfortunate car accident if he wanted to truly hide the assassination. The reason his regime uses methods like Novichok and polonium poisoning is because he wants to send a message along with killing. He's always going to deny doing it even when it's obvious that he did.
  - jl6 6y ago
    This is the scary bit - the truth is irrelevant because nobody has any means of holding the perpetrators to account.
    - pmoriarty 6y ago
      "nobody has any means of holding the perpetrators to account" Of course they do. As individuals, the people at the top are always virtually powerless without support. This is why dictators always take control of their country's media and spin a narrative that makes them seem innocent, heroes, or victims of foreign intervention. If no one had any means to hold them to account they wouldn't bother doing any of this, nor would they bother to spy on, much less assassinate any opposition figures, and their acts would be a lot more brazen, without any attempts to disguise them or feign innocence. Russia has had multiple revolutions in the last century, not to mention constant power struggles within the government itself. Anyone in power in Russia is going to be keenly aware of this, and know how important it is to keep public opinion on their side and crush any opposition.
azangru 6y ago
> but on the other hand Putin wants people to know he was behind the assassination, otherwise he wouldn't have used Novichok Imagine how many things should have gone right for him if his plan all along was to let people know he was behind the assassination: - Navalny had to survive the poisoning or die under very suspicious circumstances — something that couldn't be attributed to, say, anaphylaxis. - His relatives had to request that he be transported to a country that had the capability for testing for those substances, and the permission given. Alternatively, had he died, someone should have requested for an independent forensic examination in such a country. - The discovery of novichok poisoning shouldn't have triggered any sanctions from the Western countries, specifically there shouldn't have been any consequences for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. I don't think anyone would argue that sanctions against Russia are somehow in Putin's interest. This is the level of sophistication in planning and execution that nobody, let alone Russians, is likely capable of.
- rightbyte 6y ago
  Wouldn't it be less suspicious to hire a crack addict and have him shoot him? I don't get the obvoius connection to the government. Surely there are alot of potential perpetrators. "ChEIs may be used as drugs for Alzheimer's and myasthenia gravis, and also as chemical weapons and insecticides." - Wiki on the poison.
  - azangru 6y ago
    > Wouldn't it be less suspicious to hire a crack addict and have him shoot him? Absolutely. This was in fact how a couple of other opposition figures, such as Anna Politkovskaya and Boris Nemtsov, were eliminated. This whole cloak-and-dagger pantomime involving chemical weapons is hard to explain, unless what they wanted was a seemingly natural death that was not traceable directly to Kremlin.

dvfjsdhgfv 6y ago

While that's true, for some reason Putin always tries to pretend his hands are clean. He wants the dissidents know they will be punished, but officially he will deny any involvement of Kremlin. In this case, it will be a bit harder to pull off.

GVIrish 6y ago
That's part and parcel of Putin's Chekist paradigm of obvious aggression combined with denials and disinformation. The idea is to create enough doubt and lies that people feel like the truth is unknowable. But everyone still gets the message that Putin can and will kill you if he so wishes.

bt1a 6y ago

>> Putin wants people to know he was behind the assassination Actually, part of this agent's orders was to scrub the underwear clean after the poisoning. It was public knowledge that Putin was trailing this guy, but I believe they wanted to keep it unknown that they tried to assassinate him.

m12k 6y ago
Well, unprovable at least, probably not unknown. Putin is the kinda guy that leans heavily into concepts like plausible deniability, and he'll settle for implausible deniability if he has to.

SXX 6y ago

>> otherwise he wouldn't have used Novichok. The whole point of using biological weapons like these is that it's almost impossible to prove that poisoning actually took a place. No one would ever find out for sure if he would die and only reason he still alive is few lucky conditions. In his earlier investigation video Navalny himself told about two previous cases where he and his wife was likely almost killed, but they never suppose it was poisoning since it's impossible to understand it unless you actually dying. Only now they found out that the same FSB agents followed them on the trips earlier where they became sick with no reason.

GVIrish 6y ago
If Putin wanted to do something that is untraceable he wouldn't use a nerve agent that is exclusively used by his regime. He could easily stage a 'robbery gone wrong' plot or an unfortunate car accident if he wanted to truly hide the assassination. The reason his regime uses methods like Novichok and polonium poisoning is because he wants to send a message along with killing. He's always going to deny doing it even when it's obvious that he did.
- jl6 6y ago
  This is the scary bit - the truth is irrelevant because nobody has any means of holding the perpetrators to account.
  - pmoriarty 6y ago
    "nobody has any means of holding the perpetrators to account" Of course they do. As individuals, the people at the top are always virtually powerless without support. This is why dictators always take control of their country's media and spin a narrative that makes them seem innocent, heroes, or victims of foreign intervention. If no one had any means to hold them to account they wouldn't bother doing any of this, nor would they bother to spy on, much less assassinate any opposition figures, and their acts would be a lot more brazen, without any attempts to disguise them or feign innocence. Russia has had multiple revolutions in the last century, not to mention constant power struggles within the government itself. Anyone in power in Russia is going to be keenly aware of this, and know how important it is to keep public opinion on their side and crush any opposition.

azangru 6y ago

> but on the other hand Putin wants people to know he was behind the assassination, otherwise he wouldn't have used Novichok Imagine how many things should have gone right for him if his plan all along was to let people know he was behind the assassination: - Navalny had to survive the poisoning or die under very suspicious circumstances — something that couldn't be attributed to, say, anaphylaxis. - His relatives had to request that he be transported to a country that had the capability for testing for those substances, and the permission given. Alternatively, had he died, someone should have requested for an independent forensic examination in such a country. - The discovery of novichok poisoning shouldn't have triggered any sanctions from the Western countries, specifically there shouldn't have been any consequences for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. I don't think anyone would argue that sanctions against Russia are somehow in Putin's interest. This is the level of sophistication in planning and execution that nobody, let alone Russians, is likely capable of.

rightbyte 6y ago
Wouldn't it be less suspicious to hire a crack addict and have him shoot him? I don't get the obvoius connection to the government. Surely there are alot of potential perpetrators. "ChEIs may be used as drugs for Alzheimer's and myasthenia gravis, and also as chemical weapons and insecticides." - Wiki on the poison.
- azangru 6y ago
  > Wouldn't it be less suspicious to hire a crack addict and have him shoot him? Absolutely. This was in fact how a couple of other opposition figures, such as Anna Politkovskaya and Boris Nemtsov, were eliminated. This whole cloak-and-dagger pantomime involving chemical weapons is hard to explain, unless what they wanted was a seemingly natural death that was not traceable directly to Kremlin.