5 ms·

> Supply & demand economics won't deliver the result you want even if your wish for everyone over 60 to drop dead is fulfilled. Depends. If building housing we

> Supply & demand economics won't deliver the result you want even if your wish for everyone over 60 to drop dead is fulfilled. Depends. If building housing were legal it would. Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat. If supply is allowed to rise to reach demand property prices don’t go up on a never ending spiral.

jfk13 6y ago
On the other hand, if building were entirely unregulated, I'm not sure how long it would remain a desirable place to live.
- bryanrasmussen 6y ago
  I sometimes feel we're not living in the fully realized cyberpunk dystopia we were promised without a bunch of ramshackle buildings piled on top of each other and stolen data flowing through it all.
- barry-cotter 6y ago
  Building is very much regulated in Tokyo and throughout Japan. Just pointing out that unaffordable housing is a policy choice, not a law of nature.
  - zepto 6y ago
    It really isn’t. There is a hierarchy of desirability which will always create price competition. Nobody would be complaining about prop 13 or California housing prices if they didn’t desire to live in California more than somewhere else.
antihero 6y ago
The housing market seems like one that is fucked up, especially here in the UK, because the government consists of and is run for homeowners, who have come to expect a continuous growth in their investment or freak the hell out, regardless of the actual value of housing on the market. So it's an artificially inflated market because they are incentivised to keep houses continuously more expensive or their base loses out.
WalterBright 6y ago
> If building housing were legal it would. That's a quite different scenario. You could confiscate the homes of everyone over 60, distribute them for free to young people, and the market prices of the homes would remain the same.
- barry-cotter 6y ago
  Quite. So increase supply. Build, build, build.
  - edoceo 6y ago
    Or reduce demand. Move move move
    - novok 6y ago
      And watch as the tax base to fund your pension plans and retirement evaporates away. This shit is eating your seed crop levels of stupid.
coldtea 6y ago
>Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat That's because most live in glorified living room space, and many in "comfortable elevator" size houses...
- ido 6y ago
  That's the compromise you have to make to live in the biggest city in the world (metro population: 37 million people).
  - coldtea 6y ago
    Is it? Sounds orthogonal to the population, as the city could just expand vertically (more highrises/scyscrapers) or horizontally (more land).
    - ido 6y ago
      Haven't Tokio already done both?
      - linguae 6y ago
        Yes, though there is still room in the Tokyo metro area for even more growth, both vertically and horizontally. Even though Japan's population is declining, Tokyo Prefecture and its neighboring prefectures were still growing pre-pandemic (although I remember reading that since the COVID-19 pandemic struck there's a growing interest in living in more rural parts of Japan.) Regarding horizontal growth, there is still plenty of agricultural land in the Chiba and Ibaraki prefectures east of Tokyo that can be developed. In fact, when I take the Narita Express from the Narita International Airport to Tokyo, I pass by plenty of agricultural areas before reaching the easternmost fringes of the Tokyo metro area's urban sprawl. Another area where urban sprawl could occur is the Izu Peninsula in Shizuoka Prefecture just south of Mt. Fuji, where the beach resort town of Atami is located. Regarding horizontal growth, there are plenty of places in the Tokyo metro area being redeveloped horizontally, such as the Musashi-Kosugi area of Kawasaki, which is just a 20 minute train ride on regular commuter trains like the Tokyu Toyoko Line and the JR Shonan-Shinjuku Line to Shibuya, a major hub in Tokyo. Over the past 15 years there has been a lot of development of high-rise residences in the area. Futako-tamagawa is another area of Tokyo that has seen much horizontal growth, starting with the Rise shopping center and nearby high-rise residences that opened around 2011. Rakuten moved its headquarters from Shinagawa to Futako-tamagawa sometime in the late 2010s, which has further boosted the desirability of Futako-tamagawa and neighboring areas such as Mizonokuchi just across the river in Kawasaki. Disclaimer: I live near Silicon Valley but I travel to Japan roughly once every other year.

jfk13 6y ago

On the other hand, if building were entirely unregulated, I'm not sure how long it would remain a desirable place to live.

bryanrasmussen 6y ago
I sometimes feel we're not living in the fully realized cyberpunk dystopia we were promised without a bunch of ramshackle buildings piled on top of each other and stolen data flowing through it all.
barry-cotter 6y ago
Building is very much regulated in Tokyo and throughout Japan. Just pointing out that unaffordable housing is a policy choice, not a law of nature.
- zepto 6y ago
  It really isn’t. There is a hierarchy of desirability which will always create price competition. Nobody would be complaining about prop 13 or California housing prices if they didn’t desire to live in California more than somewhere else.

antihero 6y ago

The housing market seems like one that is fucked up, especially here in the UK, because the government consists of and is run for homeowners, who have come to expect a continuous growth in their investment or freak the hell out, regardless of the actual value of housing on the market. So it's an artificially inflated market because they are incentivised to keep houses continuously more expensive or their base loses out.

WalterBright 6y ago

> If building housing were legal it would. That's a quite different scenario. You could confiscate the homes of everyone over 60, distribute them for free to young people, and the market prices of the homes would remain the same.

barry-cotter 6y ago
Quite. So increase supply. Build, build, build.
- edoceo 6y ago
  Or reduce demand. Move move move
  - novok 6y ago
    And watch as the tax base to fund your pension plans and retirement evaporates away. This shit is eating your seed crop levels of stupid.

coldtea 6y ago

>Tokyo’s population has increased 50% over the last twenty years and property prices have been flat That's because most live in glorified living room space, and many in "comfortable elevator" size houses...

ido 6y ago
That's the compromise you have to make to live in the biggest city in the world (metro population: 37 million people).
- coldtea 6y ago
  Is it? Sounds orthogonal to the population, as the city could just expand vertically (more highrises/scyscrapers) or horizontally (more land).
  - ido 6y ago
    Haven't Tokio already done both?
    - linguae 6y ago
      Yes, though there is still room in the Tokyo metro area for even more growth, both vertically and horizontally. Even though Japan's population is declining, Tokyo Prefecture and its neighboring prefectures were still growing pre-pandemic (although I remember reading that since the COVID-19 pandemic struck there's a growing interest in living in more rural parts of Japan.) Regarding horizontal growth, there is still plenty of agricultural land in the Chiba and Ibaraki prefectures east of Tokyo that can be developed. In fact, when I take the Narita Express from the Narita International Airport to Tokyo, I pass by plenty of agricultural areas before reaching the easternmost fringes of the Tokyo metro area's urban sprawl. Another area where urban sprawl could occur is the Izu Peninsula in Shizuoka Prefecture just south of Mt. Fuji, where the beach resort town of Atami is located. Regarding horizontal growth, there are plenty of places in the Tokyo metro area being redeveloped horizontally, such as the Musashi-Kosugi area of Kawasaki, which is just a 20 minute train ride on regular commuter trains like the Tokyu Toyoko Line and the JR Shonan-Shinjuku Line to Shibuya, a major hub in Tokyo. Over the past 15 years there has been a lot of development of high-rise residences in the area. Futako-tamagawa is another area of Tokyo that has seen much horizontal growth, starting with the Rise shopping center and nearby high-rise residences that opened around 2011. Rakuten moved its headquarters from Shinagawa to Futako-tamagawa sometime in the late 2010s, which has further boosted the desirability of Futako-tamagawa and neighboring areas such as Mizonokuchi just across the river in Kawasaki. Disclaimer: I live near Silicon Valley but I travel to Japan roughly once every other year.