I expect Telsa to be like Apple, a premium brand that can command a good chunk of marketshare. Apple has about 20% of the world cellphone market; Jobs was shoot

I expect Telsa to be like Apple, a premium brand that can command a good chunk of marketshare. Apple has about 20% of the world cellphone market; Jobs was shooting for 1%. He did much better than he expected. I think 20% of the world car market is optimistic for Tesla frankly given the national priority nature of the car biz. I think they will top out at less than 10%. But if Tesla gets 20% of the world market share (and it will be a minor miracle to do this, Toyota only has 10% share!) it should only be worth 2x of Toyota. Right now Tesla has 600 billion market cap at net even 1% of global share, and Toyota has 10% of global share with market cap of 250 billion. So Tesla is overvalued more than 10 times, as if they had already won the battle, when in fact, they are still a young company. The numbers don't add up. If Ford which sells 120 billion worth of vehicles per year is valued at 30 billion, then Tesla should be selling 2400 billion worth of vehicles, which is preposterous. Is a dollar earned by Ford somehow less valuable than a dollar earned by Tesla? Tesla may not have a vehicle to compare with the Ford Bronco for 5 more years. In that time span, Ford will have sold 200k/year at an avg price of $40k. The Bronco is incredibly well designed; the best new car from an American company in decades (only the Corvette is comparable in quality of design). Tesla isn't even that good at design. Tesla fan boys are drinking the kool-aid IMHO.