3 ms·
> Growth prior to the initial lockdowns was expoenential with a doubling rate between 5-7 days. Had this been ineffective we'd have all been sick by now and may
by gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
> Growth prior to the initial lockdowns was expoenential with a doubling rate between 5-7 days. Had this been ineffective we'd have all been sick by now and maybe 50-100M people would be dead worldwide.
You know this isn't true because practically every local area that suffers an outbreak follows the same curve regardless of how they implement a strategy.
It looks different at larger levels (town, city, state, country, globe) because it's the aggregation of multiple outbreaks.
- newacct583 6y ago> You know this isn't true because practically every local area that suffers an outbreak follows the same curve regardless of how they implement a strategy. That's just laughably wrong. Explain how these are the "same curve"? https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right&extra=Norway%2CUnited%20States%2CGermany%2CBelgium%2CJapan#countries-normalized https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr...
- gnusty_gnurc 6y agoDid you even read what I said? I said local outbreaks all follow the same spread curve. When aggregated at the country level you're looking at many separate outbreaks superimposed, hence the wide curves.
- newacct583 6y agoAnd that too seems trivially falsifiable. You have something to cite?