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I too think tesla is overvalued, but your comparison to ICE companies strikes me as missing that they have fundamentally different technologies those other comp

I too think tesla is overvalued, but your comparison to ICE companies strikes me as missing that they have fundamentally different technologies those other companies are no where near developing on their own and will likely have to license. Tesla investors are betting that a lot of the ICE based car expertise will be worth just pennies on the dollar if the shift to electric cars happens en masse.

tomashertus 6y ago
How it can happen without them? To build cars you need infrastructure, factories, and workers and these companies have that already. There won’t be mass shift without these companies driving the shift, simply because there won’t be enough cars for the demand.
foepys 6y ago
> and will likely have to license There are already a dozen other electric models on the streets. Why should they have to license from Tesla? The electric engine part of the vehicles is actually not that hard - it's the battery that is complicated and Tesla doesn't even produce the batteries in their cars. That's done by Panasonic. VW, Toyota, Nissan have supply chain management under control, they don't need to learn it from Tesla.
- saalweachter 6y ago
  Heck, let's also not forget that patents aren't copyright. Patents last 20 years, and it's not unusual for 5 of those to past between filing and the invention being turned into a usable product that hits the market.
- pkulak 6y ago
  That new motor that Tesla uses is pretty amazing, and must at least be difficult since almost no other companies use it and instead just deal with reduced range and efficiency.
  - gamblor956 6y ago
    Tesla's motor isn't what drives the range and efficiency; the battery assembly is their key differentiator. Tesla currently has the industry-leading thermal design; it's ability to cool batteries and prevent thermal-based degradation is far more efficient/effective than anything that competitors have yet been able to put on the market. Supposedly GM's Ultium battery platform will equal or exceed Tesla's batteries, but that remains to be seen as the first Ultium-based cars don't come out until 2H 2021 and all we have to go on right now are press releases. VW holds some patents and exclusive licenses on solid state batteries, and is planning to go all EV within the next few years, though the SSB autos aren't expected until 2025 at the earliest, assuming VW is able to commercialize the technology.
    - pkulak 6y ago
      Range went up about 10% when they switched to the "Raven" motor. That ain't nothin'.
gamblor956 6y ago
What fundamentally different technologies do you believe they are nowhere near developing? Multiple other manufacturers already make and sell EVs, in some cases outselling Tesla in their home territories. Moreover, while Tesla assembles their own batteries, the underlying battery cells are made for them by Panasonic, which owns the IP to the chemistry. (Tesla's IP relates to the assembly, referring both to the process and the finished battery product.) And that IP is only valuable until the inevitable switch to solid-state batteries, which have significantly more capacity and durability than anything on the market today. And other automotive companies have already acquired exclusive licenses to the most (commercially) promising research.
- cronix 6y ago
  What are your thoughts on the upcoming battery tech from Tesla they announced during their "battery day" in September? Your comments don't seem to reflect what they've been working on and what's coming. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds
  - gamblor956 6y ago
    Tesla announced plans to eventually make tabless batteries, which theoretically could increase range by 16%. With everything Musk related, take the original deadline given and add 3 years. As no deadline for this was given, I assume this tech is not yet commercially viable. Note that Panasonic, which will actually be making the batteries, has indicated in its own investor releases that it is working on developing the batteries but they aren't anywhere close to production-ready yet. The other announcements relate to making the batteries cheaper, but would not otherwise extend performance (and in some cases would reduce performance, but due to the reduced costs would come out ahead on a $/kWh basis).
  - andrepd 6y ago
    Like anything "upcoming" announced by Tesla, to me it's all marketing no substance until proven otherwise.
- tekkk 6y ago
Consultant32452 6y ago
Tesla isn't just a car manufacturer. Solar, batteries, charging network, car dealership, self driving tech... What's the market cap of a gas station chain comparable in scale to the Tesla charging network? What's the market cap for however many Ford dealerships it would take to match Tesla's sales capacity? Rinse repeat for every industry Tesla is in.

tomashertus 6y ago

How it can happen without them? To build cars you need infrastructure, factories, and workers and these companies have that already. There won’t be mass shift without these companies driving the shift, simply because there won’t be enough cars for the demand.

foepys 6y ago

> and will likely have to license There are already a dozen other electric models on the streets. Why should they have to license from Tesla? The electric engine part of the vehicles is actually not that hard - it's the battery that is complicated and Tesla doesn't even produce the batteries in their cars. That's done by Panasonic. VW, Toyota, Nissan have supply chain management under control, they don't need to learn it from Tesla.

saalweachter 6y ago
Heck, let's also not forget that patents aren't copyright. Patents last 20 years, and it's not unusual for 5 of those to past between filing and the invention being turned into a usable product that hits the market.
pkulak 6y ago
That new motor that Tesla uses is pretty amazing, and must at least be difficult since almost no other companies use it and instead just deal with reduced range and efficiency.
- gamblor956 6y ago
  Tesla's motor isn't what drives the range and efficiency; the battery assembly is their key differentiator. Tesla currently has the industry-leading thermal design; it's ability to cool batteries and prevent thermal-based degradation is far more efficient/effective than anything that competitors have yet been able to put on the market. Supposedly GM's Ultium battery platform will equal or exceed Tesla's batteries, but that remains to be seen as the first Ultium-based cars don't come out until 2H 2021 and all we have to go on right now are press releases. VW holds some patents and exclusive licenses on solid state batteries, and is planning to go all EV within the next few years, though the SSB autos aren't expected until 2025 at the earliest, assuming VW is able to commercialize the technology.
  - pkulak 6y ago
    Range went up about 10% when they switched to the "Raven" motor. That ain't nothin'.

gamblor956 6y ago

What fundamentally different technologies do you believe they are nowhere near developing? Multiple other manufacturers already make and sell EVs, in some cases outselling Tesla in their home territories. Moreover, while Tesla assembles their own batteries, the underlying battery cells are made for them by Panasonic, which owns the IP to the chemistry. (Tesla's IP relates to the assembly, referring both to the process and the finished battery product.) And that IP is only valuable until the inevitable switch to solid-state batteries, which have significantly more capacity and durability than anything on the market today. And other automotive companies have already acquired exclusive licenses to the most (commercially) promising research.

cronix 6y ago
What are your thoughts on the upcoming battery tech from Tesla they announced during their "battery day" in September? Your comments don't seem to reflect what they've been working on and what's coming. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds
- gamblor956 6y ago
  Tesla announced plans to eventually make tabless batteries, which theoretically could increase range by 16%. With everything Musk related, take the original deadline given and add 3 years. As no deadline for this was given, I assume this tech is not yet commercially viable. Note that Panasonic, which will actually be making the batteries, has indicated in its own investor releases that it is working on developing the batteries but they aren't anywhere close to production-ready yet. The other announcements relate to making the batteries cheaper, but would not otherwise extend performance (and in some cases would reduce performance, but due to the reduced costs would come out ahead on a $/kWh basis).
- andrepd 6y ago
  Like anything "upcoming" announced by Tesla, to me it's all marketing no substance until proven otherwise.
tekkk 6y ago

Consultant32452 6y ago

Tesla isn't just a car manufacturer. Solar, batteries, charging network, car dealership, self driving tech... What's the market cap of a gas station chain comparable in scale to the Tesla charging network? What's the market cap for however many Ford dealerships it would take to match Tesla's sales capacity? Rinse repeat for every industry Tesla is in.