4 ms·

Tesla is the innovator in this space for 10+ years. Only a few of the companies are all in on electric- and 10 years from now there will be no new old school ca

by kerng 6y ago

Tesla is the innovator in this space for 10+ years. Only a few of the companies are all in on electric- and 10 years from now there will be no new old school cars. Some of them have even giant liabilities because of the mess to the environment they have created, which also damaged their brand. Some of them probably wouldn't even exist anymore was it not for government backing/looking away and in some cases even intervention. Many of the companies mentioned are quite far behind, and will face severe challenges in the coming years trying to adjust with little marging for error. But most importantly Tesla is also a battery company! Who knows, most of the other players might even have to buy batteries from Tesla. Gut feeling tells me that Tesla will still grow significantly, especially if they start selling batteries to other markets at scale, but also the car business itself will experience a tremendous growth.

xnx 6y ago
Tesla car sales will grow, but their stock continuing to grow is not sustainable. Tesla certainly make desirable cars, but I don't see their product being hard to replicate should any other manufacturer make a serious effort. Other manufacturers will make a serious effort when it makes financial sense to.
ashtonkem 6y ago
The only way for the stock price to be reasonable is if Tesla completely replaces all of the listed car companies combined. That is not realistic, no matter what you think of Tesla’s products.
- shyn3 6y ago
  I think they will all die because they are too far to innovate it's why I finally bought shares after the split [1]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25214484 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25214484
  - fakedang 6y ago
    Or maybe you're trying to rationalize your investment thesis after buying into the stock. - Sincerely, a TSLA hodler since summer 2019, when I bought my first car, a Tesla. I'll be holding the stock I have, but I don't think traditional car companies are going away any time soon. On the contrary, I'm thinking of getting a Taycan, a BMW or some other EV car. Tesla isn't overpriced per se, but once the spigot of cheap debt and printed money stops, we might see a good decline from the stock market. Not that I'm going to bet against the market either.
    - shyn3 6y ago
      My investment thesis was made prior to my purchase, not after. I make a decision and I stick to it. This is a 5-year investment for me.
      - fakedang 6y ago
        I didn't say you made your thesis after buying it. I'm saying you might be overweighing your thesis when you bought into the stock, being the natural hopeful optimists we all are. That being said, there's always the chance that Tesla could be an Apple for cars, which pretty well sums up my opinion about the car itself - great design, but lots of sharks in the water. Of course, Apple has it much easier.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    Betting that every single one of those car companies will die is a wildly risky bet. One can believe that Tesla might replace one of them, but all of them? Be reasonable.
    - shyn3 6y ago
      There are a lot of companies dedicated to EVs. The larger companies are going to have to buy the smaller winners to be relevant. The issue is the dealer network laws are going to hurt the existing companies, I think. NKLA (seems like a scam), NIO (seems really good), and with a huge amount of SPACs buying EV companies, they are going to have lots of room to grow. Also many of these companies have been operating for a decade trying to create a product like KNDI, PLUG and they are getting closer with their products. I didn't jump into TSLA early as it wasn't profitable, but now they are making money so it fits my investment principles. Take a look and do some research here at the competitors to the traditional car dealers [1]. [1] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sKMfBZNkHdvaVKmweuv3sD--CzfvImALJxGj2Xj7Ozw/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sKMfBZNkHdvaVKmweuv3...
- kerng 6y ago
  What about all their "gas" stations? Tesla is the only one with a large recharging infrastructure that is already in place. Comparisons that try to make Tesla seem like an ordinary car manufacturer are probably quite a bit off.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    How much of an advantage does that really represent? They are ahead of the field, their chargers are faster, but there's already thousands of other places with relatively high power chargers that can likely be upgraded as demand materializes (at a minimum, the competition is not starting from 0).

by kerng 6y ago

xnx 6y ago

Tesla car sales will grow, but their stock continuing to grow is not sustainable. Tesla certainly make desirable cars, but I don't see their product being hard to replicate should any other manufacturer make a serious effort. Other manufacturers will make a serious effort when it makes financial sense to.

ashtonkem 6y ago

The only way for the stock price to be reasonable is if Tesla completely replaces all of the listed car companies combined. That is not realistic, no matter what you think of Tesla’s products.

shyn3 6y ago
I think they will all die because they are too far to innovate it's why I finally bought shares after the split [1]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25214484 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25214484
- fakedang 6y ago
  Or maybe you're trying to rationalize your investment thesis after buying into the stock. - Sincerely, a TSLA hodler since summer 2019, when I bought my first car, a Tesla. I'll be holding the stock I have, but I don't think traditional car companies are going away any time soon. On the contrary, I'm thinking of getting a Taycan, a BMW or some other EV car. Tesla isn't overpriced per se, but once the spigot of cheap debt and printed money stops, we might see a good decline from the stock market. Not that I'm going to bet against the market either.
  - shyn3 6y ago
    My investment thesis was made prior to my purchase, not after. I make a decision and I stick to it. This is a 5-year investment for me.
    - fakedang 6y ago
      I didn't say you made your thesis after buying it. I'm saying you might be overweighing your thesis when you bought into the stock, being the natural hopeful optimists we all are. That being said, there's always the chance that Tesla could be an Apple for cars, which pretty well sums up my opinion about the car itself - great design, but lots of sharks in the water. Of course, Apple has it much easier.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  Betting that every single one of those car companies will die is a wildly risky bet. One can believe that Tesla might replace one of them, but all of them? Be reasonable.
  - shyn3 6y ago
    There are a lot of companies dedicated to EVs. The larger companies are going to have to buy the smaller winners to be relevant. The issue is the dealer network laws are going to hurt the existing companies, I think. NKLA (seems like a scam), NIO (seems really good), and with a huge amount of SPACs buying EV companies, they are going to have lots of room to grow. Also many of these companies have been operating for a decade trying to create a product like KNDI, PLUG and they are getting closer with their products. I didn't jump into TSLA early as it wasn't profitable, but now they are making money so it fits my investment principles. Take a look and do some research here at the competitors to the traditional car dealers [1]. [1] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sKMfBZNkHdvaVKmweuv3sD--CzfvImALJxGj2Xj7Ozw/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sKMfBZNkHdvaVKmweuv3...
kerng 6y ago
What about all their "gas" stations? Tesla is the only one with a large recharging infrastructure that is already in place. Comparisons that try to make Tesla seem like an ordinary car manufacturer are probably quite a bit off.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  How much of an advantage does that really represent? They are ahead of the field, their chargers are faster, but there's already thousands of other places with relatively high power chargers that can likely be upgraded as demand materializes (at a minimum, the competition is not starting from 0).