5 ms·

If he heard it from someone who lives there that’s not part of the state, that’s a way more reliable account than you’ll get from anywhere in the west.

the_af 6y ago
He said it was a driver that took him along the North Korean border, not inside North Korea. I took this to mean the driver was South Korean. A North Korean driver with unsupervised access to a foreigner seems unlikely, doesn't it?
- mannykannot 6y ago
  North Korea also has a border with China (and a short one with Russia), and both some elements of the post, and facts on the ground, strongly suggest that this is the border being discussed. I would guess that the driver was Chinese rather than a North Korean defector, but living close enough to the border to either have observed some of the specific things mentioned, or to be in a community where these observations were commonplace.
  - the_af 6y ago
    You're right! I hadn't considered that this was the Chinese border and the driver was Chinese. Makes more sense. That said, examining this critically: how would someone from the other side of the border observe people going up the mountain, going inside caves, and falling to the ground and dying in droves? Did he go inside the caves himself and found the corpses, and if so, why? If he didn't, how did he know how many died? Did he count people going in and going out the caves? Did he conduct a census of North Korean villages beyond the border and saw a stark decline in population, and was the only possible explanation starvation in caves (vs, say, migration)? If this is something that's common knowledge in the driver's community, the question becomes how did this community come to "know" all of this.
    - mannykannot 6y ago
      Examining it critically, we see (in addition to it clearly referring to the northern border) a couple of claims that suggest actual observation: people "lying in the sun near the river in the spring awaiting the return of energy", and "women would reportedly illegally cross the river to prostitute themselves in China before the winter to obtain rice to survive." The river might be the Yalu or Tumen, and if the latter occurred, the women could quite plausibly be sources of additional information. So yes, it is anecdotal evidence, but not, IMHO, entirely implausible at that. > Did he conduct a census of North Korean villages beyond the border... Are you consistently as skeptical as you are in this case? For example, have you personally verified that the earth is round (or flat, according to what you believe it to be?)
      - the_af 6y ago
        > Are you consistently as skeptical as you are in this case? For example, have you personally verified that the earth is round I am consistently skeptical about outrageous claims, particularly in ideologically charged contexts. Or try to be, anyway -- I'm not a robot and I'm of course subject to bias, like all humans. For example, I dislike Trump but if I read something truly outrageous about him I tend to be skeptical about it. In Spanish we call it "avoid buying rotten fish", i.e. do not believe any stories about your hated enemy, just because they sound like something he would do, until you can have at least some degree of verification. Because sometimes those stories are planted maliciously or are plain wrong. In the case of North Korea there is the problem that the country is so secretive -- unlike the US with Trump -- that it's truly hard to get confirmation of just about anything, so the rumors fly easily. If something sounds true about North Korea, then it must be true! That the Earth is round is non-controversial. I don't see how it's wrong to double or triple check sociopolitical claims though. I do believe North Korea is a hereditary dictatorship and that their people suffer, in case you were wondering. This doesn't mean I will automatically believe any claim about that country.
        mannykannot 6y ago
        > I am consistently skeptical about outrageous claims. You have not presented a case for this particular claim to be regarded as outrageous. Unless you do, then your attitude to such claims is beside the point here.
- BurningFrog 6y ago
  Which is why I assume this was the far more open Chinese border.

the_af 6y ago

He said it was a driver that took him along the North Korean border, not inside North Korea. I took this to mean the driver was South Korean. A North Korean driver with unsupervised access to a foreigner seems unlikely, doesn't it?

mannykannot 6y ago
North Korea also has a border with China (and a short one with Russia), and both some elements of the post, and facts on the ground, strongly suggest that this is the border being discussed. I would guess that the driver was Chinese rather than a North Korean defector, but living close enough to the border to either have observed some of the specific things mentioned, or to be in a community where these observations were commonplace.
- the_af 6y ago
  You're right! I hadn't considered that this was the Chinese border and the driver was Chinese. Makes more sense. That said, examining this critically: how would someone from the other side of the border observe people going up the mountain, going inside caves, and falling to the ground and dying in droves? Did he go inside the caves himself and found the corpses, and if so, why? If he didn't, how did he know how many died? Did he count people going in and going out the caves? Did he conduct a census of North Korean villages beyond the border and saw a stark decline in population, and was the only possible explanation starvation in caves (vs, say, migration)? If this is something that's common knowledge in the driver's community, the question becomes how did this community come to "know" all of this.
  - mannykannot 6y ago
    Examining it critically, we see (in addition to it clearly referring to the northern border) a couple of claims that suggest actual observation: people "lying in the sun near the river in the spring awaiting the return of energy", and "women would reportedly illegally cross the river to prostitute themselves in China before the winter to obtain rice to survive." The river might be the Yalu or Tumen, and if the latter occurred, the women could quite plausibly be sources of additional information. So yes, it is anecdotal evidence, but not, IMHO, entirely implausible at that. > Did he conduct a census of North Korean villages beyond the border... Are you consistently as skeptical as you are in this case? For example, have you personally verified that the earth is round (or flat, according to what you believe it to be?)
    - the_af 6y ago
      > Are you consistently as skeptical as you are in this case? For example, have you personally verified that the earth is round I am consistently skeptical about outrageous claims, particularly in ideologically charged contexts. Or try to be, anyway -- I'm not a robot and I'm of course subject to bias, like all humans. For example, I dislike Trump but if I read something truly outrageous about him I tend to be skeptical about it. In Spanish we call it "avoid buying rotten fish", i.e. do not believe any stories about your hated enemy, just because they sound like something he would do, until you can have at least some degree of verification. Because sometimes those stories are planted maliciously or are plain wrong. In the case of North Korea there is the problem that the country is so secretive -- unlike the US with Trump -- that it's truly hard to get confirmation of just about anything, so the rumors fly easily. If something sounds true about North Korea, then it must be true! That the Earth is round is non-controversial. I don't see how it's wrong to double or triple check sociopolitical claims though. I do believe North Korea is a hereditary dictatorship and that their people suffer, in case you were wondering. This doesn't mean I will automatically believe any claim about that country.
      - mannykannot 6y ago
        > I am consistently skeptical about outrageous claims. You have not presented a case for this particular claim to be regarded as outrageous. Unless you do, then your attitude to such claims is beside the point here.
BurningFrog 6y ago
Which is why I assume this was the far more open Chinese border.