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That's good. An increase in recorded cases can be attributed to an increase in infection rate only when the increase is not accompanied by more testing. The US
by betwixthewires 6y ago
That's good.
An increase in recorded cases can be attributed to an increase in infection rate only when the increase is not accompanied by more testing. The US tests 1.75-2.0 million people a day. In September that number was 800,000.
To look at infection rate, what you want to look at is percentage of tests given that came back positive, and while numbers will be skewed if you're only testing people with symptoms vs people who ask vs everybody, it is good to see a high test rate and a low positive rate. 250k positive from 1.75-2 million tests is ~15% positive rate.
Also the death rate per positive test being low is a very good thing. That number, according to the CDC, is 0.6% and falling.
- MarkMc 6y ago> An increase in recorded cases can be attributed to an increase in infection rate only when the increase is not accompanied by more testing I'm not sure it's that simple. Doesn't the infection rate have an effect on the demand for tests? I live in Sydney near a testing center. It was empty 2 weeks ago when I drove past, but now that there is a covid outbreak the queue snakes around the block.
- betwixthewires 6y agoWell, if the positive test rate is 15%, most people getting tested aren't getting tested because they have it. If the increase in testing was driven by the infection rate, the percentage of those tested coming back positive would also go up.
- ethanbond 6y ago15% test positivity rate is insanely high
- serbrech 6y ago15% was the positivity rate at the peak of the wave in France: https://www.meteo-covid.com/graphique-taux-de-positivite https://www.meteo-covid.com/graphique-taux-de-positivite
- maxerickson 6y agoWhat? The positivity rate has gone up since September, even as testing capacity has increased. We've lost ground on testing, it's obvious that there are many more cases now (the number dying each day is clear evidence of this). https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidvi...
- betwixthewires 6y agoThe very first sentence from your citation: >Nationally, the overall percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, decreased from 13.4% during week 49 to 12.2% during week 50.
- maxerickson 6y agoYes, week 49 is December, not September. The decrease you cite is likely the Thanksgiving peak subsiding.
- Fjolsvith 6y agoWhat's also good is that we won't need as much vaccine as originally intended, what with everyone already having had the virus.