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> Slavery jumpstarted the US economy, and much of the early US economy (even that of the North) was only successful due to slavery as an institution. That's a

> Slavery jumpstarted the US economy, and much of the early US economy (even that of the North) was only successful due to slavery as an institution. That's a very bold claim to make, especially given that the half of the country that was heavily dependent on slavery lagged far behind, economically. > That means that, as a reasonable guess, 20% of America's workforce wasn't compensated for their work on a national scale, and that was true for decades. Think about what a massive transfer of wealth that would be, compounded over the century and a half since. It enriched a relatively small but very wealthy planter class, but there's a very strong argument to be made that it prevented economic development in the South. At the very least, something has to explain why the northern states economically developed so much more rapidly than the South during the first half of the 19th Century, and slavery is a very likely explanation.

joshuamorton 6y ago
> That's a very bold claim to make, especially given that the half of the country that was heavily dependent on slavery lagged far behind, economically. When you're restricting yourself to first order effects, yes. But do you think that northern states didn't, like, benefit from the southern economy. Eli Whitney was a northerner through and through. Cotton, however, was able to be acquired cheaply due to slave labor. > It enriched a relatively small but very wealthy planter class, but there's a very strong argument to be made that it prevented economic development in the South. At the very least, something has to explain why the northern states economically developed so much more rapidly than the South during the first half of the 19th Century, and slavery is a very likely explanation. Yes, the northern recovery was easier because they didn't fall into a local maximum and have their economy entirely depend on slave labor to function. That doesn't mean that the northern/US economy didn't vastly benefit from cheap tobacco (and particularly tobacco exports), cotton (and exports), and sugar production. (The price of cotton went up significantly in the direct postwar period, but went back down eventually due to Sharcropping and increased production in the south, as well as increased competition from Egypt and other nations). We now, I think, generally recognize the interconnectedness of economies. Pretending that prior to 1865 economies weren't also interconnected seems strange to me.
- rayiner 6y ago
  See: http://bradleyahansen.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-back-of-ed-baptists-envelope.html http://bradleyahansen.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-back-of-ed-ba... There are two separate issues here. First, you need to be careful to avoid double-counting. If cotton sales account for 5% of the economy, you can't go and add to that the money Eli Whitney makes from selling cotton gins to southern plantations. The cost of those cotton gins (rather, the amortized depreciation in the value of those cotton gins) is already baked into the sales price of the cotton. The economy is interconnected, but at the end of the day if the value of exported cotton produced by enslaved people is 5% of the economy, then the whole economy can't be singularly dependent on that industry. Second, whether the workers on the plantations are paid labor or enslaved people doesn't change the economic calculus for Eli Whitney. He sells cotton gins either way. Back then cotton could be, and was, produced by free labor. When the Civil War disrupted the American cotton industry, free labor in India and Australia and Egypt filled the market gap: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-american-civil-war-built-egypts-vaunted-cotton-industry-and-changed-country-forever-180959967 https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-american-civil-wa....
  - joshuamorton 6y ago
    > The economy is interconnected, but at the end of the day if the value of exported cotton produced by enslaved people is 5% of the economy, then the whole economy can't be singularly dependent on that industry. I don't think I made such a claim. That said, this claim isn't correct. If the non-exported cotton was a key ingredient in the industries that make up the other 95% of exports (and the non-export economy), the economy would be dependent on that industry. Now I don't think that every aspect of the US economy was dependent on cotton, but textile exports, for example, wouldn't be included as cotton exports, and textiles used at home, wouldn't be either. So this metric does underestimate the economic impact of an industry. > Second, whether the workers on the plantations are paid labor or enslaved people doesn't change the economic calculus for Eli Whitney. He sells cotton gins either way. Back then cotton could be, and was, produced by free labor. When the Civil War disrupted the American cotton industry, free labor in India and Australia and Egypt filled the market gap: I agree. This doesn't change the core point: his fortune was built off of slave labor. There exist alternate timelines where it might not have been, but we don't live in those timelines. Trying to tease counterfactuals out of history isn't really good academics. The flow of history is complex enough that smart people can come to contradictory conclusion. Thus, what happened: the US cotton economy was built on the backs of slave labor. Anything else (even conjecture that I agree with, that the US economy would have been stronger sooner with less slavery as it was essentially a local maxima and prevented other forms of innovation) is conjecture.

joshuamorton 6y ago

> That's a very bold claim to make, especially given that the half of the country that was heavily dependent on slavery lagged far behind, economically. When you're restricting yourself to first order effects, yes. But do you think that northern states didn't, like, benefit from the southern economy. Eli Whitney was a northerner through and through. Cotton, however, was able to be acquired cheaply due to slave labor. > It enriched a relatively small but very wealthy planter class, but there's a very strong argument to be made that it prevented economic development in the South. At the very least, something has to explain why the northern states economically developed so much more rapidly than the South during the first half of the 19th Century, and slavery is a very likely explanation. Yes, the northern recovery was easier because they didn't fall into a local maximum and have their economy entirely depend on slave labor to function. That doesn't mean that the northern/US economy didn't vastly benefit from cheap tobacco (and particularly tobacco exports), cotton (and exports), and sugar production. (The price of cotton went up significantly in the direct postwar period, but went back down eventually due to Sharcropping and increased production in the south, as well as increased competition from Egypt and other nations). We now, I think, generally recognize the interconnectedness of economies. Pretending that prior to 1865 economies weren't also interconnected seems strange to me.

rayiner 6y ago
See: http://bradleyahansen.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-back-of-ed-baptists-envelope.html http://bradleyahansen.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-back-of-ed-ba... There are two separate issues here. First, you need to be careful to avoid double-counting. If cotton sales account for 5% of the economy, you can't go and add to that the money Eli Whitney makes from selling cotton gins to southern plantations. The cost of those cotton gins (rather, the amortized depreciation in the value of those cotton gins) is already baked into the sales price of the cotton. The economy is interconnected, but at the end of the day if the value of exported cotton produced by enslaved people is 5% of the economy, then the whole economy can't be singularly dependent on that industry. Second, whether the workers on the plantations are paid labor or enslaved people doesn't change the economic calculus for Eli Whitney. He sells cotton gins either way. Back then cotton could be, and was, produced by free labor. When the Civil War disrupted the American cotton industry, free labor in India and Australia and Egypt filled the market gap: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-american-civil-war-built-egypts-vaunted-cotton-industry-and-changed-country-forever-180959967 https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-american-civil-wa....
- joshuamorton 6y ago
  > The economy is interconnected, but at the end of the day if the value of exported cotton produced by enslaved people is 5% of the economy, then the whole economy can't be singularly dependent on that industry. I don't think I made such a claim. That said, this claim isn't correct. If the non-exported cotton was a key ingredient in the industries that make up the other 95% of exports (and the non-export economy), the economy would be dependent on that industry. Now I don't think that every aspect of the US economy was dependent on cotton, but textile exports, for example, wouldn't be included as cotton exports, and textiles used at home, wouldn't be either. So this metric does underestimate the economic impact of an industry. > Second, whether the workers on the plantations are paid labor or enslaved people doesn't change the economic calculus for Eli Whitney. He sells cotton gins either way. Back then cotton could be, and was, produced by free labor. When the Civil War disrupted the American cotton industry, free labor in India and Australia and Egypt filled the market gap: I agree. This doesn't change the core point: his fortune was built off of slave labor. There exist alternate timelines where it might not have been, but we don't live in those timelines. Trying to tease counterfactuals out of history isn't really good academics. The flow of history is complex enough that smart people can come to contradictory conclusion. Thus, what happened: the US cotton economy was built on the backs of slave labor. Anything else (even conjecture that I agree with, that the US economy would have been stronger sooner with less slavery as it was essentially a local maxima and prevented other forms of innovation) is conjecture.