3 ms·

You should be smart enough to know that a respiratory virus could be seasonal but still spread throughout the year. And the further complexity of being present

You should be smart enough to know that a respiratory virus could be seasonal but still spread throughout the year. And the further complexity of being presented with this huge US graph, which in reality is the aggregated result of so many communities with varying levels of prevalence/previous exposure. Hope-Simpson studied this with flu, fig. 2 on pg. 5 shows some recognizable trends that line up with latitude: https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134066&blobtype=pdf https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134...

jasonlaramburu 6y ago
So not seasonal then?
- gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
  Seasons vary geographically?
  - jasonlaramburu 6y ago
    It spiked in Texas in Summer and Fall. It will presumably continue to spread through winter. How is that seasonal?
    - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
      Did you see the Hope-Simpson figure? Texas is roughly 36N to 26N. That puts it close/within the tropical zone. That zone has a relatively diffuse outbreak curve, seems like there's some type of subtle signal though, whereas the higher latitudes get walloped in the winter months and there's not much going on the rest of the year. Surely you understand that seasons vary geographically? What's winter in Texas at best? 50F?
      - jasonlaramburu 6y ago
        New York, California And Pacific Northwest also had summer spikes. Now they are experiencing winter spikes. Any seasonality that may exist naturally is made irrelevant by pandemic fatigue. People simply start ignoring the guidance after a few months. Cases go up until things get ‘scary bad’ and then people stay home again. That is why your suggestion that we all ‘self regulate’ is not a good one. It will just lead to endless, ‘weak’ lockdowns.
        gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        I'm around NYC, was in the city, and haven't seen anything even remotely severe in the summer. Hence Cuomo acting like he conquered it with masks. Cases in my city were in the single digits, and then like clockwork started a steady rise in the fall to where they are now.
        jasonlaramburu 6y ago
        Correlation, not causation. It’s also known that people simply congregated outside their homes more during the NYC summer. This is the problem with self-regulation. Not everyone is a doctor, so many people will incorrectly gauge their own risk of severe infection and/or transmission. Just think about it, self regulation is the easiest government intervention (basically no intervention required). If that strategy worked, we would have seen at least 1 success by now. Sweden and Brazil had few (if any) restrictions and some of the highest death rates in their regions. Developing countries with poor governance and zero public health infrastructure are also struggling.
        gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        > If that strategy worked, we would have seen at least 1 success by now. No one “wins” against things like death, disease, etc. The world is full of unwinnable things that can used to justify authoritarianism and deprivation of individual rights.
        jasonlaramburu 6y ago

jasonlaramburu 6y ago

So not seasonal then?

gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
Seasons vary geographically?
- jasonlaramburu 6y ago
  It spiked in Texas in Summer and Fall. It will presumably continue to spread through winter. How is that seasonal?
  - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
    Did you see the Hope-Simpson figure? Texas is roughly 36N to 26N. That puts it close/within the tropical zone. That zone has a relatively diffuse outbreak curve, seems like there's some type of subtle signal though, whereas the higher latitudes get walloped in the winter months and there's not much going on the rest of the year. Surely you understand that seasons vary geographically? What's winter in Texas at best? 50F?
    - jasonlaramburu 6y ago
      New York, California And Pacific Northwest also had summer spikes. Now they are experiencing winter spikes. Any seasonality that may exist naturally is made irrelevant by pandemic fatigue. People simply start ignoring the guidance after a few months. Cases go up until things get ‘scary bad’ and then people stay home again. That is why your suggestion that we all ‘self regulate’ is not a good one. It will just lead to endless, ‘weak’ lockdowns.
      - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        I'm around NYC, was in the city, and haven't seen anything even remotely severe in the summer. Hence Cuomo acting like he conquered it with masks. Cases in my city were in the single digits, and then like clockwork started a steady rise in the fall to where they are now.
        jasonlaramburu 6y ago
        Correlation, not causation. It’s also known that people simply congregated outside their homes more during the NYC summer. This is the problem with self-regulation. Not everyone is a doctor, so many people will incorrectly gauge their own risk of severe infection and/or transmission. Just think about it, self regulation is the easiest government intervention (basically no intervention required). If that strategy worked, we would have seen at least 1 success by now. Sweden and Brazil had few (if any) restrictions and some of the highest death rates in their regions. Developing countries with poor governance and zero public health infrastructure are also struggling.
        gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        > If that strategy worked, we would have seen at least 1 success by now. No one “wins” against things like death, disease, etc. The world is full of unwinnable things that can used to justify authoritarianism and deprivation of individual rights.
        jasonlaramburu 6y ago