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> as it looks like lockdown and highest restrictions aren't decreasing cases This has been apparent since the beginning. It's a highly contagious seasonal viru

> as it looks like lockdown and highest restrictions aren't decreasing cases This has been apparent since the beginning. It's a highly contagious seasonal virus. When it declined in the northeast of the US as the spring led into summer, people proclaimed their expert advice was successful...ignoring that it's seasonal virus. Cuomo wrote even wrote a freaking book about his success.

dm319 6y ago
No that has not been apparent. The first lockdown got cases down to very low levels (10s/million/day). It turned around a sky-rocketing increase in cases - it's not like the seasons changed between April and May. The second lockdown in the UK was a tiered approach, and has managed the levels (at least up to 3 weeks ago) better than France, Belgium or Spain. Not quite as good as Germany or Italy, and nowhere near the Scandinavian countries (excluding Sweden). Are you really trying to tell me that the variation in COVID rates is only down to seasons?
- gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
  Largely yes
  - jasonlaramburu 6y ago
    If it’s a seasonal virus why have states like Texas had multiple spikes in the same year?
    - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
      You should be smart enough to know that a respiratory virus could be seasonal but still spread throughout the year. And the further complexity of being presented with this huge US graph, which in reality is the aggregated result of so many communities with varying levels of prevalence/previous exposure. Hope-Simpson studied this with flu, fig. 2 on pg. 5 shows some recognizable trends that line up with latitude: https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134066&blobtype=pdf https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134...
      - jasonlaramburu 6y ago
        So not seasonal then?
        gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        Seasons vary geographically?
        jasonlaramburu 6y ago
        It spiked in Texas in Summer and Fall. It will presumably continue to spread through winter. How is that seasonal?
        gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        Did you see the Hope-Simpson figure? Texas is roughly 36N to 26N. That puts it close/within the tropical zone. That zone has a relatively diffuse outbreak curve, seems like there's some type of subtle signal though, whereas the higher latitudes get walloped in the winter months and there's not much going on the rest of the year. Surely you understand that seasons vary geographically? What's winter in Texas at best? 50F?
        jasonlaramburu 6y ago
        New York, California And Pacific Northwest also had summer spikes. Now they are experiencing winter spikes. Any seasonality that may exist naturally is made irrelevant by pandemic fatigue. People simply start ignoring the guidance after a few months. Cases go up until things get ‘scary bad’ and then people stay home again. That is why your suggestion that we all ‘self regulate’ is not a good one. It will just lead to endless, ‘weak’ lockdowns.
        gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        I'm around NYC, was in the city, and haven't seen anything even remotely severe in the summer. Hence Cuomo acting like he conquered it with masks. Cases in my city were in the single digits, and then like clockwork started a steady rise in the fall to where they are now.
ineedasername 6y ago
Not quite: you're correct about seasonality but seasonality is an issue to begin with because people are spending more time inside, in closed air systems. (Other factors as well). But that still requires people to mix about with each other. Things like eating in fully enclosed "outdoor" tents instead of true outdoor settings, family get togethers like Thanksgiving, etc. If people weren't going out & seeing each other, the virus wouldn't just appear in closed social networks. You're also ignoring the Summer spike that occured as precautions were relaxed, at the same time that it gradually began making its way off of the coasts and into land-locked states, especially those that were generally skeptical of taking precautions to begin with, so decreases & spikes are not solely attributable to seasonal factors.

dm319 6y ago

No that has not been apparent. The first lockdown got cases down to very low levels (10s/million/day). It turned around a sky-rocketing increase in cases - it's not like the seasons changed between April and May. The second lockdown in the UK was a tiered approach, and has managed the levels (at least up to 3 weeks ago) better than France, Belgium or Spain. Not quite as good as Germany or Italy, and nowhere near the Scandinavian countries (excluding Sweden). Are you really trying to tell me that the variation in COVID rates is only down to seasons?

gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
Largely yes
- jasonlaramburu 6y ago
  If it’s a seasonal virus why have states like Texas had multiple spikes in the same year?
  - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
    You should be smart enough to know that a respiratory virus could be seasonal but still spread throughout the year. And the further complexity of being presented with this huge US graph, which in reality is the aggregated result of so many communities with varying levels of prevalence/previous exposure. Hope-Simpson studied this with flu, fig. 2 on pg. 5 shows some recognizable trends that line up with latitude: https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134066&blobtype=pdf https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134...
    - jasonlaramburu 6y ago
      So not seasonal then?
      - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        Seasons vary geographically?
        jasonlaramburu 6y ago
        It spiked in Texas in Summer and Fall. It will presumably continue to spread through winter. How is that seasonal?
        gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        Did you see the Hope-Simpson figure? Texas is roughly 36N to 26N. That puts it close/within the tropical zone. That zone has a relatively diffuse outbreak curve, seems like there's some type of subtle signal though, whereas the higher latitudes get walloped in the winter months and there's not much going on the rest of the year. Surely you understand that seasons vary geographically? What's winter in Texas at best? 50F?
        jasonlaramburu 6y ago
        New York, California And Pacific Northwest also had summer spikes. Now they are experiencing winter spikes. Any seasonality that may exist naturally is made irrelevant by pandemic fatigue. People simply start ignoring the guidance after a few months. Cases go up until things get ‘scary bad’ and then people stay home again. That is why your suggestion that we all ‘self regulate’ is not a good one. It will just lead to endless, ‘weak’ lockdowns.
        gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        I'm around NYC, was in the city, and haven't seen anything even remotely severe in the summer. Hence Cuomo acting like he conquered it with masks. Cases in my city were in the single digits, and then like clockwork started a steady rise in the fall to where they are now.

ineedasername 6y ago

Not quite: you're correct about seasonality but seasonality is an issue to begin with because people are spending more time inside, in closed air systems. (Other factors as well). But that still requires people to mix about with each other. Things like eating in fully enclosed "outdoor" tents instead of true outdoor settings, family get togethers like Thanksgiving, etc. If people weren't going out & seeing each other, the virus wouldn't just appear in closed social networks. You're also ignoring the Summer spike that occured as precautions were relaxed, at the same time that it gradually began making its way off of the coasts and into land-locked states, especially those that were generally skeptical of taking precautions to begin with, so decreases & spikes are not solely attributable to seasonal factors.