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They’ve seen a spike in infections in a densely populated mega city in the busiest shopping weeks of the year, when (anecdotally) people are not taking precauti

They’ve seen a spike in infections in a densely populated mega city in the busiest shopping weeks of the year, when (anecdotally) people are not taking precautions and social distancing. In what way is that unexpected?

codeulike 6y ago
True, and that's what I thought a few days ago. But they've also been tracking growth of the new strain at the same time. New strain has been responsible for a growing proportion of positive tests. May be coincidence, but they are being cautious. E.g. see graph here https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/1340349639946629120?s=19 https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/13403496399466291... Edit: complete conjecture but if new strain is more infectious but less dangerous it might actually be helpful in the long run as it might displace other strains. Fingers crossed
DanBC 6y ago
The spike isn't just in London, but across the south east. https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1339918672811462657?s=20 https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1339918672811462657?s=2... https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340355825471287299?s=20 https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340355825471287299?s=20 https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1340010730687492096?s=20 https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1340010730687492096... This one shows high rates for Medway: https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1338158031067033601?s=20 https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1338158031067033601?s=20
- stefan_ 6y ago
  You are just describing a map of population density. Shocker, infections rising in the south east?
  - DanBC 6y ago
    No, it's not a map of population density. Rates are rising far faster in the South East than in other parts of England.
    - tremon 6y ago
      Isn't the South East right now overpopulated with transit? By all accounts, lorry traffic between the UK and mainland Europe has seen a massive spike in these weeks. It seems to me that a lot of that traffic must pass through the South East much more than the other parts of England

codeulike 6y ago

True, and that's what I thought a few days ago. But they've also been tracking growth of the new strain at the same time. New strain has been responsible for a growing proportion of positive tests. May be coincidence, but they are being cautious. E.g. see graph here https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/1340349639946629120?s=19 https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/13403496399466291... Edit: complete conjecture but if new strain is more infectious but less dangerous it might actually be helpful in the long run as it might displace other strains. Fingers crossed

DanBC 6y ago

The spike isn't just in London, but across the south east. https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1339918672811462657?s=20 https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1339918672811462657?s=2... https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340355825471287299?s=20 https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340355825471287299?s=20 https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1340010730687492096?s=20 https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1340010730687492096... This one shows high rates for Medway: https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1338158031067033601?s=20 https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1338158031067033601?s=20

stefan_ 6y ago
You are just describing a map of population density. Shocker, infections rising in the south east?
- DanBC 6y ago
  No, it's not a map of population density. Rates are rising far faster in the South East than in other parts of England.
  - tremon 6y ago
    Isn't the South East right now overpopulated with transit? By all accounts, lorry traffic between the UK and mainland Europe has seen a massive spike in these weeks. It seems to me that a lot of that traffic must pass through the South East much more than the other parts of England