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Aggressive contact tracing works when the disease is at low levels.

LatteLazy 6y ago
If only the UK had the same level of government as Melbourne and Singapore and Japan and South Korea and New Zealand and all the other places that did that...
- CodeGlitch 6y ago
  I'm not sure that's completely fair. Countries vary so much that putting it down to "the government" ignores all the other factors. You're examples are all on the southern hemisphere, with mostly nice weather where people spend more time outside. General population health also has a massive effect. Here in the UK we are a nation of overweight old people, but fat-shaming is a thing so that's only going to get worse.
  - mprovost 6y ago
    But those antipodean countries are all coming out of their winter. So they got through the worst of it during the coldest part of the year, with more people indoors, and only now are getting into summer.
    - CodeGlitch 6y ago
      I'm not sure about those other countries, but an Australian "winter" is very different from a British winter. As I said - there are other factors here (many more than I mentioned) - that you can't compare countries so easily.
  - umanwizard 6y ago
    Agree with you in principle, except that Japan and Korea are at temperate latitudes in the northern hemisphere.
    - CodeGlitch 6y ago
      Not sure why you are all focusing on my example with the weather. Like I said there are many factors involved here, with the weather being one of them.
      - umanwizard 6y ago
        I completely agree with your overall point, that there are too many confounding factors to reliably attribute anything to government actions. I guess I just couldn't resist the urge to nit.
robbiep 6y ago
So Australia (Melbourne at the time) and the UK had basically the same case reports per day in July. One place crushed it, the other didn’t. [0] https://mobile.twitter.com/drericlevi/status/1322822297867018240 https://mobile.twitter.com/drericlevi/status/132282229786701... [1] https://twitter.com/drdeannechiu/status/1322834922269073408?s=21 https://twitter.com/drdeannechiu/status/1322834922269073408?...
- grey-area 6y ago
  Firstly, the UK response has been terrible, Australia far better. However there are several contributing factors and it certainly doesn’t come down to mask use as the primary one as mask discipline in the UK hasn’t been bad in my experience. This is a seasonal disease (the main reason for the UK summer reprieve), and it’s now summer in Australia, and they have also been far better at quarantines and contact tracing and have used this period wisely to get the disease under control. All these factors matter in a response, and the UK has suffered from panic management and a lack of difficult measures at the right time and is now entering the peak season for this sort of virus so things will get worse for a month or two at least, even with a new lockdown.
mmusc 6y ago
Contract tracing wasn't very effective. What worked in Melbourne was that 8 months of house arrest for everyone living in the city... I'm all for managing the virus spread but if the policies are a piece of meat, in the UK the policies are uncooked in Melbourne they were burnt.
- PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
  > What worked in Melbourne was that 8 months of house arrest for everyone living in the city... The .au epidemiologists I've heard on NPR have made it clear that what worked in Melbourne was everything they did, including a lockdown and including contact tracing.
  - grey-area 6y ago
    Exactly, there is no one magic bullet. The changing seasons probably helped too.

If only the UK had the same level of government as Melbourne and Singapore and Japan and South Korea and New Zealand and all the other places that did that...

CodeGlitch 6y ago
I'm not sure that's completely fair. Countries vary so much that putting it down to "the government" ignores all the other factors. You're examples are all on the southern hemisphere, with mostly nice weather where people spend more time outside. General population health also has a massive effect. Here in the UK we are a nation of overweight old people, but fat-shaming is a thing so that's only going to get worse.
- mprovost 6y ago
  But those antipodean countries are all coming out of their winter. So they got through the worst of it during the coldest part of the year, with more people indoors, and only now are getting into summer.
  - CodeGlitch 6y ago
    I'm not sure about those other countries, but an Australian "winter" is very different from a British winter. As I said - there are other factors here (many more than I mentioned) - that you can't compare countries so easily.
- umanwizard 6y ago
  Agree with you in principle, except that Japan and Korea are at temperate latitudes in the northern hemisphere.
  - CodeGlitch 6y ago
    Not sure why you are all focusing on my example with the weather. Like I said there are many factors involved here, with the weather being one of them.
    - umanwizard 6y ago
      I completely agree with your overall point, that there are too many confounding factors to reliably attribute anything to government actions. I guess I just couldn't resist the urge to nit.

robbiep 6y ago

So Australia (Melbourne at the time) and the UK had basically the same case reports per day in July. One place crushed it, the other didn’t. [0] https://mobile.twitter.com/drericlevi/status/1322822297867018240 https://mobile.twitter.com/drericlevi/status/132282229786701... [1] https://twitter.com/drdeannechiu/status/1322834922269073408?s=21 https://twitter.com/drdeannechiu/status/1322834922269073408?...

grey-area 6y ago
Firstly, the UK response has been terrible, Australia far better. However there are several contributing factors and it certainly doesn’t come down to mask use as the primary one as mask discipline in the UK hasn’t been bad in my experience. This is a seasonal disease (the main reason for the UK summer reprieve), and it’s now summer in Australia, and they have also been far better at quarantines and contact tracing and have used this period wisely to get the disease under control. All these factors matter in a response, and the UK has suffered from panic management and a lack of difficult measures at the right time and is now entering the peak season for this sort of virus so things will get worse for a month or two at least, even with a new lockdown.

mmusc 6y ago

Contract tracing wasn't very effective. What worked in Melbourne was that 8 months of house arrest for everyone living in the city... I'm all for managing the virus spread but if the policies are a piece of meat, in the UK the policies are uncooked in Melbourne they were burnt.

PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
> What worked in Melbourne was that 8 months of house arrest for everyone living in the city... The .au epidemiologists I've heard on NPR have made it clear that what worked in Melbourne was everything they did, including a lockdown and including contact tracing.
- grey-area 6y ago
  Exactly, there is no one magic bullet. The changing seasons probably helped too.