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A lot of you missing the context of what's been going on here in recent days - they've seen an unexpected spike in infections and it seems to correlate with a s

A lot of you missing the context of what's been going on here in recent days - they've seen an unexpected spike in infections and it seems to correlate with a strain with an unusually high number of mutations. So they're not totally sure the new strain is responsible but it looks serious enough to get extra cautious. By tracking the growth of that strain then reckon it's 70% more easily spread. That could be statistical fluke due to a series of superspreader events or something like that but it seems less likely day by day. See here for strain analysis https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1340327606303027201 https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1340327606303027201

randomsearch 6y ago
They’ve seen a spike in infections in a densely populated mega city in the busiest shopping weeks of the year, when (anecdotally) people are not taking precautions and social distancing. In what way is that unexpected?
- codeulike 6y ago
  True, and that's what I thought a few days ago. But they've also been tracking growth of the new strain at the same time. New strain has been responsible for a growing proportion of positive tests. May be coincidence, but they are being cautious. E.g. see graph here https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/1340349639946629120?s=19 https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/13403496399466291... Edit: complete conjecture but if new strain is more infectious but less dangerous it might actually be helpful in the long run as it might displace other strains. Fingers crossed
- DanBC 6y ago
  The spike isn't just in London, but across the south east. https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1339918672811462657?s=20 https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1339918672811462657?s=2... https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340355825471287299?s=20 https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340355825471287299?s=20 https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1340010730687492096?s=20 https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1340010730687492096... This one shows high rates for Medway: https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1338158031067033601?s=20 https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1338158031067033601?s=20
  - stefan_ 6y ago
    You are just describing a map of population density. Shocker, infections rising in the south east?
    - DanBC 6y ago
      No, it's not a map of population density. Rates are rising far faster in the South East than in other parts of England.
      - tremon 6y ago
        Isn't the South East right now overpopulated with transit? By all accounts, lorry traffic between the UK and mainland Europe has seen a massive spike in these weeks. It seems to me that a lot of that traffic must pass through the South East much more than the other parts of England

randomsearch 6y ago

They’ve seen a spike in infections in a densely populated mega city in the busiest shopping weeks of the year, when (anecdotally) people are not taking precautions and social distancing. In what way is that unexpected?

codeulike 6y ago
True, and that's what I thought a few days ago. But they've also been tracking growth of the new strain at the same time. New strain has been responsible for a growing proportion of positive tests. May be coincidence, but they are being cautious. E.g. see graph here https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/1340349639946629120?s=19 https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/13403496399466291... Edit: complete conjecture but if new strain is more infectious but less dangerous it might actually be helpful in the long run as it might displace other strains. Fingers crossed
DanBC 6y ago
The spike isn't just in London, but across the south east. https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1339918672811462657?s=20 https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1339918672811462657?s=2... https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340355825471287299?s=20 https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340355825471287299?s=20 https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1340010730687492096?s=20 https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1340010730687492096... This one shows high rates for Medway: https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1338158031067033601?s=20 https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1338158031067033601?s=20
- stefan_ 6y ago
  You are just describing a map of population density. Shocker, infections rising in the south east?
  - DanBC 6y ago
    No, it's not a map of population density. Rates are rising far faster in the South East than in other parts of England.
    - tremon 6y ago
      Isn't the South East right now overpopulated with transit? By all accounts, lorry traffic between the UK and mainland Europe has seen a massive spike in these weeks. It seems to me that a lot of that traffic must pass through the South East much more than the other parts of England