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It’s not like no nation in the world has succeeded at containing this virus. Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand. We have the solutions, we just refuse

It’s not like no nation in the world has succeeded at containing this virus. Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand. We have the solutions, we just refuse to do what it takes to solve it. Western nations are taking half measures with poor enforcement, and blaming individuals for failures that should be attributed to institutions.

andylynch 6y ago
Aussie and I think most impressively China too.
- gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
  Australia is an island with a population almost half California. China welds people in their houses and forcibly enters homes and drags family to some location. I have no desire to emulate them.
  - robocat 6y ago
    I’m tired of hearing excuses. 20% of New Zealand export income[1] came from tourism, yet we closed the doors on February 1st, cancelling tourists while the season was still high. If you want to get rid of the virus, you can, but you have to suck up the costs: shut down your borders and do whatever it takes. Close down internal travel: domestic flights were virtually shutdown in NZ; Ozzie’s had other overland travel restrictions between states etcetera. Stay at home: fuck the economy for a while, but then you all can relax. NZ is about the same size and population as Oregon, so a single state could choose to do it, if they were willing to face up to the implications of the choice. There is still time to do it now, to give yourselves enough time to vaccinate people that would be network nodes in the transmission graph, and health workers, and the at-risk population. Or be honest like Sweden and decide that some deaths and chronic repercussions are acceptable costs (versus the alternative economic and human damage.) But don’t give lame just-right excuses like “Australia is an island with a population almost half California.” Oz has a higher population than every other state except Texas, so.... [1] https://tia.org.nz/about-the-industry/quick-facts-and-figures/ https://tia.org.nz/about-the-industry/quick-facts-and-figure...
    - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
      > but you have to suck up the costs In other words immiserate anyone who’s not a comfortable white-collar person that can hole up in their home, Zoom to work, and dispatch immigrants to deliver food
      - robocat 6y ago
        I suspect your perceptions are coloured by your environs: what do you know of NZ and Oz? The poor in New Zealand and Oz were not hit any harder than the middle-class and wealthy people that lost their savings due to circumstances e.g. businesses going under. I personally don’t know of any restaurant that had to close due to Covid (and most restaurants are close to the edge during normal times). My friends on unemployment benefits and requiring state healthcare would prefer not to be, in other circumstances, but they muddle through e.g. one friend needed emergency care the other day (free), and another friend needs their gall-bladder removed (free). And Covid is low (or no) risk even for the most unlucky jobs.
        lefrenchy 6y ago
        America is so broken, the idea of providing meaningful support top down just can’t be fathomed by some..
      - robbiep 6y ago
        By suck up the costs I believe the parent is referring not just to the economic pain but also the cost of the extensive and unprecedented government support that Australia and NZ (and even in fact the UK) made. Unemployment benefits and the aged pension were raised significantly, employers were paid a subsidy to continue to employ people of income dropped by 30% or more from the jan quarter 12 months earlier - and the support is clacheduled to continue until March at present. This was also exceptionally well distributed and applied in almost no time.
    - etherealmachine 6y ago
      Just want to point out that US states aren't allowed to run a deficit, while countries are, so I mostly agree with this but this hamstrings states like Oregon who aren't allowed to provide relief for strict measures through debt. Also Oregonians would have to still contribute to the Federal government via taxes, essentially stealing more money from this plan.
  - elyobo 6y ago
    I really don't understand the island fixation that so many seem to have. Is it just accepted that non-island nations are incapable of policing their borders?
    - nicoburns 6y ago
      I think the argument is that other nations have economies that depend much more heavily on interaction with their neighbours. Which is probably true to an extent. But I mostly agree with you that this option was open to other countries.
    - rocqua 6y ago
      As an inhabitant of the Netherlands, I would be very surprised if we would police our border with either Belgium or Germany. There are no natural obstacles, and plenty of spaces with forest crossing the border. No-one but the military comes close to having enough man-power to enforce that border. Sure, with actual army deployment we could get somewhere (it seems we have about 20 soldiers per kilometer of border). But the massive difference in effort between "police airports and the coast with radar" and "Mobilize the army" is huge.
      - elyobo 6y ago
        The same could be said of Australia's internal borders, which were largely closed as well. Most people will follow the rules, so simply closing the borders will get you most of the way there. The issue is not whether it's possible - it is - it's whether the cost of doing so is too high. It's a fair consideration to make, but it should be clear that that's the consideration being made, rather than pretending that only island nations have this option.
- rweir 6y ago
  No other western country has actually been willing to do what NZ or Australia did - strict contact tracing, strict lockdowns, and a near-complete ban on entering the country, with those that do being picked up the police or military at their plane and driven to quarantine hotels where the doors lock from the outside. I don't know why everyone keeps going on about other countries not getting the same results - no other rich country has even talked about trying, as far as I know.
  - lefrenchy 6y ago
    In fact it’s worse, western nations have done the stupidest thing which is half measures. They’ve wrecked their own economies by taking measly half measures and not providing adequate relief. Wrecking people’s lives without actually achieving meaningful ends. At risk of being labelled “anti-lockdown” or whatever, i’ll clarify my point is we should have done MORE. Strict lockdowns, tracing, etc... AND providing direct relief and freezes.
    - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
      Always be weary of the people that argue that because the experts failed, we need to be more oppressive.
      - elyobo 6y ago
        The argument is not that the experts failed, but that the politicians did. In general the experts have argued for more "oppressive" approaches, because those are the only ones that have worked.
    - abraxas 6y ago
      Led by the US with a president that would change his mind about COVID three times in two sentences. Somehow the rest of the "free" world decided that emulating this mess is a worthwhile venture.
dehrmann 6y ago
> South Korea You might want to check the news on South Korea. They're hitting daily records right now. This isn't to say they're at US levels, but with their current measures, they don't have control of the virus.
- lefrenchy 6y ago
  It’s not even remotely comparable though. 1,000 cases a day and less than 1,000 total reported deaths. It puts Western nations to absolute shame.
  - dehrmann 6y ago
    That's not the point. My only point is their r0 has been above 1 since early November. They went from 100 news cases per day to 1000 in a month and a half. That isn't "succeed[ing] at containing this virus."
    - addicted 6y ago
      Im pretty sure the standard is not having the virus under control 100% of the time. If you do, it’s almost certainly because you have erred way too far on the cautious side. The standard is keeping the virus well under control for the majority of the time, ans when you do have a flare up, bringing it back under control before it becomes too bad.
    - throwaway2245 6y ago
      > That isn't "succeed[ing] at containing this virus." I would assume this is a new generation (new wild-type) which has been reintroduced from the West. As such, Korea did succeed at containing the virus: their only problem is that Western countries didn't bother and made the problem magnitudes more difficult for everyone.
- makomk 6y ago
  It's been bloody obvious for months that South Korea can't control Covid through test and trace alone without massive, economically-damaging social distancing and business closure measures - every time they lift them cases go up, and there's been a worrying increase in cases not linked to any previous known cases which implies an exponentially increasing pool of unknown infections entirely unimpacted by contact tracing. (They also have massively less testing than the UK and European countries, so they're probably detecting a small fraction of those unlinked cases.) One of the big things which seems to have changed in South Korea is that unlike the last few times there's no longer the political will to impose those restrictions. You wouldn't have known this from the British press, which has been pushing hard on the idea that they succeeded at this to convince people that our country could've too if it wasn't for our incompetent government (which they hate due to Brexit). More generally, the press here almost exclusively report the facts that make the UK look like a failure and South Korea look like a success. So for example, the BBC reported on the removal of those social distancing measures, framing it as proof that South Korea's test and trace was so effective they could even reopen nightclubs... like, the day after they did, but making it sound like something they'd done a while ago with no ill effects. They then ran loads of reports on important topics like BTS whilst ignoring the explosion in cases. So everyone who gets their news from the British press is convinced that our government is incompetent, keeps on doing U-turns that damage businesses and the economy, recklessly reopened knowing it would result in the virus spreading, is behind the rest of the world in Covid testing, etc when we should've acted like South Korea... when in reality South Korea was even more like that and if the UK government had taken the same actions they'd have been described in that exact same negative way rather than glossed over and omitted. It's a complete and utter media illusion.
randomsearch 6y ago
These comparisons are so lax. NZ is in summer right now, and is a remote island on the other side of the planet from Italy where the virus first really went crazy. The U.K. government is beyond contempt, but these comparisons don’t help. NZ is not an international flight hub. Heathrow was the busiest airport in Europe prior to COVID (it is not anymore).
- Kuraj 6y ago
  I don't understand why you're being downvoted. NZ has done exceptionally well and I don't want to take away from it at all! But it would be dishonest to say that they faced challenges of the same magnitude.
  - throwaway2245 6y ago
    I suggest that New Zealand is the most comparable country to the UK in its challenges - being islands dependent on outside trade and with an economy heavy on services and tourism. (plus, NZ's primary trading partner is China). They haven't faced challenges of the same magnitude only because they took action to stop an outbreak from starting, at the earliest opportunity. That's the only meaningful difference in how things have played out. They passed the same challenges that the UK failed.
- megablast 6y ago
  It wasn't in summer when the virus hit. Who cares what it is in now, what a stupid point. It is remote, but the UK is an island too, with complete control over who enters.

andylynch 6y ago

Aussie and I think most impressively China too.

gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
Australia is an island with a population almost half California. China welds people in their houses and forcibly enters homes and drags family to some location. I have no desire to emulate them.
- robocat 6y ago
  I’m tired of hearing excuses. 20% of New Zealand export income[1] came from tourism, yet we closed the doors on February 1st, cancelling tourists while the season was still high. If you want to get rid of the virus, you can, but you have to suck up the costs: shut down your borders and do whatever it takes. Close down internal travel: domestic flights were virtually shutdown in NZ; Ozzie’s had other overland travel restrictions between states etcetera. Stay at home: fuck the economy for a while, but then you all can relax. NZ is about the same size and population as Oregon, so a single state could choose to do it, if they were willing to face up to the implications of the choice. There is still time to do it now, to give yourselves enough time to vaccinate people that would be network nodes in the transmission graph, and health workers, and the at-risk population. Or be honest like Sweden and decide that some deaths and chronic repercussions are acceptable costs (versus the alternative economic and human damage.) But don’t give lame just-right excuses like “Australia is an island with a population almost half California.” Oz has a higher population than every other state except Texas, so.... [1] https://tia.org.nz/about-the-industry/quick-facts-and-figures/ https://tia.org.nz/about-the-industry/quick-facts-and-figure...
  - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
    > but you have to suck up the costs In other words immiserate anyone who’s not a comfortable white-collar person that can hole up in their home, Zoom to work, and dispatch immigrants to deliver food
    - robocat 6y ago
      I suspect your perceptions are coloured by your environs: what do you know of NZ and Oz? The poor in New Zealand and Oz were not hit any harder than the middle-class and wealthy people that lost their savings due to circumstances e.g. businesses going under. I personally don’t know of any restaurant that had to close due to Covid (and most restaurants are close to the edge during normal times). My friends on unemployment benefits and requiring state healthcare would prefer not to be, in other circumstances, but they muddle through e.g. one friend needed emergency care the other day (free), and another friend needs their gall-bladder removed (free). And Covid is low (or no) risk even for the most unlucky jobs.
      - lefrenchy 6y ago
        America is so broken, the idea of providing meaningful support top down just can’t be fathomed by some..
    - robbiep 6y ago
      By suck up the costs I believe the parent is referring not just to the economic pain but also the cost of the extensive and unprecedented government support that Australia and NZ (and even in fact the UK) made. Unemployment benefits and the aged pension were raised significantly, employers were paid a subsidy to continue to employ people of income dropped by 30% or more from the jan quarter 12 months earlier - and the support is clacheduled to continue until March at present. This was also exceptionally well distributed and applied in almost no time.
  - etherealmachine 6y ago
    Just want to point out that US states aren't allowed to run a deficit, while countries are, so I mostly agree with this but this hamstrings states like Oregon who aren't allowed to provide relief for strict measures through debt. Also Oregonians would have to still contribute to the Federal government via taxes, essentially stealing more money from this plan.
- elyobo 6y ago
  I really don't understand the island fixation that so many seem to have. Is it just accepted that non-island nations are incapable of policing their borders?
  - nicoburns 6y ago
    I think the argument is that other nations have economies that depend much more heavily on interaction with their neighbours. Which is probably true to an extent. But I mostly agree with you that this option was open to other countries.
  - rocqua 6y ago
    As an inhabitant of the Netherlands, I would be very surprised if we would police our border with either Belgium or Germany. There are no natural obstacles, and plenty of spaces with forest crossing the border. No-one but the military comes close to having enough man-power to enforce that border. Sure, with actual army deployment we could get somewhere (it seems we have about 20 soldiers per kilometer of border). But the massive difference in effort between "police airports and the coast with radar" and "Mobilize the army" is huge.
    - elyobo 6y ago
      The same could be said of Australia's internal borders, which were largely closed as well. Most people will follow the rules, so simply closing the borders will get you most of the way there. The issue is not whether it's possible - it is - it's whether the cost of doing so is too high. It's a fair consideration to make, but it should be clear that that's the consideration being made, rather than pretending that only island nations have this option.
rweir 6y ago
No other western country has actually been willing to do what NZ or Australia did - strict contact tracing, strict lockdowns, and a near-complete ban on entering the country, with those that do being picked up the police or military at their plane and driven to quarantine hotels where the doors lock from the outside. I don't know why everyone keeps going on about other countries not getting the same results - no other rich country has even talked about trying, as far as I know.
- lefrenchy 6y ago
  In fact it’s worse, western nations have done the stupidest thing which is half measures. They’ve wrecked their own economies by taking measly half measures and not providing adequate relief. Wrecking people’s lives without actually achieving meaningful ends. At risk of being labelled “anti-lockdown” or whatever, i’ll clarify my point is we should have done MORE. Strict lockdowns, tracing, etc... AND providing direct relief and freezes.
  - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
    Always be weary of the people that argue that because the experts failed, we need to be more oppressive.
    - elyobo 6y ago
      The argument is not that the experts failed, but that the politicians did. In general the experts have argued for more "oppressive" approaches, because those are the only ones that have worked.
  - abraxas 6y ago
    Led by the US with a president that would change his mind about COVID three times in two sentences. Somehow the rest of the "free" world decided that emulating this mess is a worthwhile venture.

dehrmann 6y ago

> South Korea You might want to check the news on South Korea. They're hitting daily records right now. This isn't to say they're at US levels, but with their current measures, they don't have control of the virus.

lefrenchy 6y ago
It’s not even remotely comparable though. 1,000 cases a day and less than 1,000 total reported deaths. It puts Western nations to absolute shame.
- dehrmann 6y ago
  That's not the point. My only point is their r0 has been above 1 since early November. They went from 100 news cases per day to 1000 in a month and a half. That isn't "succeed[ing] at containing this virus."
  - addicted 6y ago
    Im pretty sure the standard is not having the virus under control 100% of the time. If you do, it’s almost certainly because you have erred way too far on the cautious side. The standard is keeping the virus well under control for the majority of the time, ans when you do have a flare up, bringing it back under control before it becomes too bad.
  - throwaway2245 6y ago
    > That isn't "succeed[ing] at containing this virus." I would assume this is a new generation (new wild-type) which has been reintroduced from the West. As such, Korea did succeed at containing the virus: their only problem is that Western countries didn't bother and made the problem magnitudes more difficult for everyone.
makomk 6y ago
It's been bloody obvious for months that South Korea can't control Covid through test and trace alone without massive, economically-damaging social distancing and business closure measures - every time they lift them cases go up, and there's been a worrying increase in cases not linked to any previous known cases which implies an exponentially increasing pool of unknown infections entirely unimpacted by contact tracing. (They also have massively less testing than the UK and European countries, so they're probably detecting a small fraction of those unlinked cases.) One of the big things which seems to have changed in South Korea is that unlike the last few times there's no longer the political will to impose those restrictions. You wouldn't have known this from the British press, which has been pushing hard on the idea that they succeeded at this to convince people that our country could've too if it wasn't for our incompetent government (which they hate due to Brexit). More generally, the press here almost exclusively report the facts that make the UK look like a failure and South Korea look like a success. So for example, the BBC reported on the removal of those social distancing measures, framing it as proof that South Korea's test and trace was so effective they could even reopen nightclubs... like, the day after they did, but making it sound like something they'd done a while ago with no ill effects. They then ran loads of reports on important topics like BTS whilst ignoring the explosion in cases. So everyone who gets their news from the British press is convinced that our government is incompetent, keeps on doing U-turns that damage businesses and the economy, recklessly reopened knowing it would result in the virus spreading, is behind the rest of the world in Covid testing, etc when we should've acted like South Korea... when in reality South Korea was even more like that and if the UK government had taken the same actions they'd have been described in that exact same negative way rather than glossed over and omitted. It's a complete and utter media illusion.

randomsearch 6y ago

These comparisons are so lax. NZ is in summer right now, and is a remote island on the other side of the planet from Italy where the virus first really went crazy. The U.K. government is beyond contempt, but these comparisons don’t help. NZ is not an international flight hub. Heathrow was the busiest airport in Europe prior to COVID (it is not anymore).

Kuraj 6y ago
I don't understand why you're being downvoted. NZ has done exceptionally well and I don't want to take away from it at all! But it would be dishonest to say that they faced challenges of the same magnitude.
- throwaway2245 6y ago
  I suggest that New Zealand is the most comparable country to the UK in its challenges - being islands dependent on outside trade and with an economy heavy on services and tourism. (plus, NZ's primary trading partner is China). They haven't faced challenges of the same magnitude only because they took action to stop an outbreak from starting, at the earliest opportunity. That's the only meaningful difference in how things have played out. They passed the same challenges that the UK failed.
megablast 6y ago
It wasn't in summer when the virus hit. Who cares what it is in now, what a stupid point. It is remote, but the UK is an island too, with complete control over who enters.