7 ms·

Something strange was happening in the UK rates in the last few weeks. Despite a second lockdown, cases in London started increasing again, and areas in 'Tier

by dm319 6y ago

Something strange was happening in the UK rates in the last few weeks. Despite a second lockdown, cases in London started increasing again, and areas in 'Tier 3' (highest tier restrictions) also started increasing cases post-lockdown. This was despite other areas continuing to drop cases despite having the same measures. Apparently the areas that had started rising were correlated with percentage prevalence of this new strain, which at the moment is known to be present in the UK, but might have come from abroad, or travelled already. As a result of this, I can see the vaccination programme getting a huge rocket, as it looks like lockdown and highest restrictions aren't decreasing cases - which is potentially disastrous for containing the virus, and stopping the hospitals get overwhelmed at a time when they normally operate at full capacity. Christmas relaxation rules have been cancelled in the UK, which has caused much disappointment to my family and friends. Understandable, but no less disappointing.

CodeGlitch 6y ago
Yes I just watched Boris Johnson's announcement. I know there's a lot of criticism about his leadership, but I'm still glad they are following the science.
- dm319 6y ago
  He's had a lot of criticism, but I don't think he has done too badly. And that's coming from someone who is normally left-leaning, and not a fan of him. There were definite mistakes at the beginning, and a blase attitude resulted in a bad first wave for the UK. It's still not completely clear why the death rate was so high - may be related to the way the coronavirus ripped through care homes early on, or simply because the UK could have locked down a week or two earlier. Not to mention the mess up with ventilators and PPE. But since then, the UK has handled the second wave reasonably well. People aren't talking about the crazy high rates in France and Spain which were exceeding the US for much for time, and with a corresponding high death rate too. I don't know what's going on with Germany, but their previously pristine record looks like it's being shattered at the moment... I think something changed after Boris went to hospital.
  - AndrewDucker 6y ago
    Except for the government's advisers recommending a lockdown in September and being ignored. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54518002 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54518002
    - dm319 6y ago
      Yes, he's definitely not been great. We're talking B- here, not A+. Maybe C++.
      - AndrewDucker 6y ago
        There are definitely worse!
        tandr 6y ago
        Well, C is not always worse than C++ I will see myself out.
gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
> as it looks like lockdown and highest restrictions aren't decreasing cases This has been apparent since the beginning. It's a highly contagious seasonal virus. When it declined in the northeast of the US as the spring led into summer, people proclaimed their expert advice was successful...ignoring that it's seasonal virus. Cuomo wrote even wrote a freaking book about his success.
- dm319 6y ago
  No that has not been apparent. The first lockdown got cases down to very low levels (10s/million/day). It turned around a sky-rocketing increase in cases - it's not like the seasons changed between April and May. The second lockdown in the UK was a tiered approach, and has managed the levels (at least up to 3 weeks ago) better than France, Belgium or Spain. Not quite as good as Germany or Italy, and nowhere near the Scandinavian countries (excluding Sweden). Are you really trying to tell me that the variation in COVID rates is only down to seasons?
  - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
    Largely yes
    - jasonlaramburu 6y ago
      If it’s a seasonal virus why have states like Texas had multiple spikes in the same year?
      - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        You should be smart enough to know that a respiratory virus could be seasonal but still spread throughout the year. And the further complexity of being presented with this huge US graph, which in reality is the aggregated result of so many communities with varying levels of prevalence/previous exposure. Hope-Simpson studied this with flu, fig. 2 on pg. 5 shows some recognizable trends that line up with latitude: https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134066&blobtype=pdf https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134...

by dm319 6y ago

CodeGlitch 6y ago

Yes I just watched Boris Johnson's announcement. I know there's a lot of criticism about his leadership, but I'm still glad they are following the science.

dm319 6y ago
He's had a lot of criticism, but I don't think he has done too badly. And that's coming from someone who is normally left-leaning, and not a fan of him. There were definite mistakes at the beginning, and a blase attitude resulted in a bad first wave for the UK. It's still not completely clear why the death rate was so high - may be related to the way the coronavirus ripped through care homes early on, or simply because the UK could have locked down a week or two earlier. Not to mention the mess up with ventilators and PPE. But since then, the UK has handled the second wave reasonably well. People aren't talking about the crazy high rates in France and Spain which were exceeding the US for much for time, and with a corresponding high death rate too. I don't know what's going on with Germany, but their previously pristine record looks like it's being shattered at the moment... I think something changed after Boris went to hospital.
- AndrewDucker 6y ago
  Except for the government's advisers recommending a lockdown in September and being ignored. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54518002 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54518002
  - dm319 6y ago
    Yes, he's definitely not been great. We're talking B- here, not A+. Maybe C++.
    - AndrewDucker 6y ago
      There are definitely worse!
      - tandr 6y ago
        Well, C is not always worse than C++ I will see myself out.

gnusty_gnurc 6y ago

> as it looks like lockdown and highest restrictions aren't decreasing cases This has been apparent since the beginning. It's a highly contagious seasonal virus. When it declined in the northeast of the US as the spring led into summer, people proclaimed their expert advice was successful...ignoring that it's seasonal virus. Cuomo wrote even wrote a freaking book about his success.

dm319 6y ago
No that has not been apparent. The first lockdown got cases down to very low levels (10s/million/day). It turned around a sky-rocketing increase in cases - it's not like the seasons changed between April and May. The second lockdown in the UK was a tiered approach, and has managed the levels (at least up to 3 weeks ago) better than France, Belgium or Spain. Not quite as good as Germany or Italy, and nowhere near the Scandinavian countries (excluding Sweden). Are you really trying to tell me that the variation in COVID rates is only down to seasons?
- gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
  Largely yes
  - jasonlaramburu 6y ago
    If it’s a seasonal virus why have states like Texas had multiple spikes in the same year?
    - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
      You should be smart enough to know that a respiratory virus could be seasonal but still spread throughout the year. And the further complexity of being presented with this huge US graph, which in reality is the aggregated result of so many communities with varying levels of prevalence/previous exposure. Hope-Simpson studied this with flu, fig. 2 on pg. 5 shows some recognizable trends that line up with latitude: https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134066&blobtype=pdf https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2134...