3 ms·

I've seen businesses before where everything seems fine (from the numbers) and then suddenly the structure of the market changes - be it 'disruption' or somethi

I've seen businesses before where everything seems fine (from the numbers) and then suddenly the structure of the market changes - be it 'disruption' or something similar. Remember Nokia? Intel looks like its in precisely such a situation now: - AMD is as good as or beating Intel on performance on server, desktop and laptop (not just desktops). - Apple (and now MS) looking to control CPUs in their laptop and desktop products and producing Apple has a superior product as a result. - Nvidia will soon own Arm and will be pushing it's own Arm CPUs. - The cloud vendors all the see the (price) advantage of Arm based CPUs and are starting to promote them. - Even a startup like Ampere can produce a product that is competitive with Intel. That's a lot of competition. Add to this that Intel is still having process problems. So on a backward looking basis all looks fine. Looking forward not so much.

paxys 6y ago
Yes and there are businesses where everything is looking fine and it continues to stay fine. There are plenty of historical examples for every single potential scenario. And if you really feel strongly about it then Intel is the perfect shorting opportunity (currently valued at $200B). Clearly the market still has some confidence.
- klelatti 6y ago
  You've not given any reason why Intel will fend off AMD, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia etc. And the market has exactly the same concerns as I do. Intel has a P/E ratio of less than 10 with strongly growing revenue and eps (even boring old IBM and Dell have much higher P/E ratios). Why? Because the market has no confidence it can sustain these earnings over the long term. EDIT: From Motley Fool > Once the head of the pack in computer processors, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is coming under serious attack in its core business. Rival big tech companies are opting to develop their own chips, with the latest being mighty Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). On Friday's news that Microsoft is doing the go-it-alone thing, Intel's stock fell by 6.3% on the day.
pjmlp 6y ago
Yep I remember Nokia, I still use their phones (now running Android), they own Bell Labs and Lucent nowadays.

paxys 6y ago

Yes and there are businesses where everything is looking fine and it continues to stay fine. There are plenty of historical examples for every single potential scenario. And if you really feel strongly about it then Intel is the perfect shorting opportunity (currently valued at $200B). Clearly the market still has some confidence.

klelatti 6y ago
You've not given any reason why Intel will fend off AMD, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia etc. And the market has exactly the same concerns as I do. Intel has a P/E ratio of less than 10 with strongly growing revenue and eps (even boring old IBM and Dell have much higher P/E ratios). Why? Because the market has no confidence it can sustain these earnings over the long term. EDIT: From Motley Fool > Once the head of the pack in computer processors, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is coming under serious attack in its core business. Rival big tech companies are opting to develop their own chips, with the latest being mighty Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). On Friday's news that Microsoft is doing the go-it-alone thing, Intel's stock fell by 6.3% on the day.

pjmlp 6y ago

Yep I remember Nokia, I still use their phones (now running Android), they own Bell Labs and Lucent nowadays.