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Is there a world where Intel basically admits defeat and tries to become a major ARM player? If not Intel, some other company? It feels a bit weird that many di

by gxqoz 6y ago

Is there a world where Intel basically admits defeat and tries to become a major ARM player? If not Intel, some other company? It feels a bit weird that many different companies are designing their own bespoke chips. I can see how the biggest companies may have this expertise. But for everyone else, shouldn't there be someone they can purchase these Apple-like chips from? Maybe that company already exists? Or maybe there's something about full integration that makes a custom-designed chip just so much better than a more general purpose chip?

wmf 6y ago
But for everyone else, shouldn't there be someone they can purchase these Apple-like chips from? For servers there's Ampere and Nuvia. For ARM PCs I think Qualcomm/Samsung/MediaTek/etc. could easily build a pretty good SoC if there's obvious demand.
- mschuster91 6y ago
  > For ARM PCs I think Qualcomm/Samsung/MediaTek/etc. could easily build a pretty good SoC if there's obvious demand. No they couldn't. I mean, not from a technological point of view, there's nothing holding at least Qualcomm and Samsung back. The problem is the software side. Unlike Apple, all three are used to dumping layers of bullshit upon fossilized bullshit and then dropping that off to customers hoping no one notices that the kernel version is years old, the kernel sources and the entire BSP are nowhere even close to upstream Linux quality - ever seen Mediatek leaked Android kernels? Stay far FAR away if you value your sanity, and the others aren't better. Security for all of them is an afterthought. Apple created everything from scratch, with security in mind. I agree that Apple ain't perfect either, but... the iPhone 4S was released 2011, it took eight years until the checkm8 bootrom exploit was found. The Android world doesn't even come close.
  - wmf 6y ago
    Does Surface have layers of bullshit upon fossilized bullshit? The software for ARM PCs is Windows. All the SoC vendor has to provide is some UEFI drivers. Linux will survive on reverse engineering since ARM PCs will have no Linux BSPs, not even shitty ones.
protastus 6y ago
> Is there a world where Intel basically admits defeat and tries to become a major ARM player? These major strategy shifts require enormous courage, support and trust at the executive level, because they represent cannibalizing an existing (real) part of the business for the promise of future profits in a business that does not yet exist. Kodak is a textbook example. Execs refused to pivot to digital cameras and associated products, because this would compete with the enormously profitable (and internally powerful) film business.
- dralley 6y ago
  Kodak was a chemical company, not a camera company, and the problem was not so much that it would compete with their film business as it was that semiconductors and electronics are a very different business. It's one thing to pivot a startup, and another to pivot a beheamoth like the company that Kodak was. And transitioning from one industry to another is a much bigger deal than transitioning from designing x86 CPUs to ARM CPUs. In hindsight, yes, it was a mistake. But it's a very understandable one.
tiernano 6y ago
Intel were an ARM licensee at one stage; my old Dell Axim x51v (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dell_Axim https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dell_Axim) had an Intel XScale (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XScale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XScale) Processor in it... It does look like intel sold it to Marvel, though, so not sure they are still an Licensee of ARM tech...
paxys 6y ago
People are overreacting here. Intel is still very dominant in both desktop and server computing. Even if they continue screwing up at the rate at which they are right now, a complete reversal in their fortunes is like 15-20 years out, if not longer.
- klelatti 6y ago
  No. AMD are outcompeting them on x86 on desktop, server and laptop. Cloud vendors making and pushing their own Arm CPUs, Apple and MS with their own laptop / desktop CPUs. If Intel can avoid a collapse in market share over a five year horizon they will have done very well. What might save them is a major issue with TSMC (possibly a political one).
  - paxys 6y ago
    Where are the numbers to back that up? Intel has a >80% share in laptop and >97% share in server chips. The only place AMD is competitive is high-end desktops, and there too Intel has 60%. The only big blow to Intel so far is the loss of Macs, but Apple's overall market share in that space is under 10%. Sure other vendors (including cloud providers) are starting to roll out ARM offerings, but it's very early to say whether they will be successful, let alone dominant. Remember that Microsoft already tried and failed once with Windows RT many years ago.
    - klelatti 6y ago
      I've seen businesses before where everything seems fine (from the numbers) and then suddenly the structure of the market changes - be it 'disruption' or something similar. Remember Nokia? Intel looks like its in precisely such a situation now: - AMD is as good as or beating Intel on performance on server, desktop and laptop (not just desktops). - Apple (and now MS) looking to control CPUs in their laptop and desktop products and producing Apple has a superior product as a result. - Nvidia will soon own Arm and will be pushing it's own Arm CPUs. - The cloud vendors all the see the (price) advantage of Arm based CPUs and are starting to promote them. - Even a startup like Ampere can produce a product that is competitive with Intel. That's a lot of competition. Add to this that Intel is still having process problems. So on a backward looking basis all looks fine. Looking forward not so much.
klelatti 6y ago
This is not about the ISA - it's about margins and the business model. CPUs have become a commodity and Apple, MS etc want control for lower cost and with the best (TSMC) process. Switching to Arm doesn't solve any of that.

by gxqoz 6y ago

wmf 6y ago

But for everyone else, shouldn't there be someone they can purchase these Apple-like chips from? For servers there's Ampere and Nuvia. For ARM PCs I think Qualcomm/Samsung/MediaTek/etc. could easily build a pretty good SoC if there's obvious demand.

mschuster91 6y ago
> For ARM PCs I think Qualcomm/Samsung/MediaTek/etc. could easily build a pretty good SoC if there's obvious demand. No they couldn't. I mean, not from a technological point of view, there's nothing holding at least Qualcomm and Samsung back. The problem is the software side. Unlike Apple, all three are used to dumping layers of bullshit upon fossilized bullshit and then dropping that off to customers hoping no one notices that the kernel version is years old, the kernel sources and the entire BSP are nowhere even close to upstream Linux quality - ever seen Mediatek leaked Android kernels? Stay far FAR away if you value your sanity, and the others aren't better. Security for all of them is an afterthought. Apple created everything from scratch, with security in mind. I agree that Apple ain't perfect either, but... the iPhone 4S was released 2011, it took eight years until the checkm8 bootrom exploit was found. The Android world doesn't even come close.
- wmf 6y ago
  Does Surface have layers of bullshit upon fossilized bullshit? The software for ARM PCs is Windows. All the SoC vendor has to provide is some UEFI drivers. Linux will survive on reverse engineering since ARM PCs will have no Linux BSPs, not even shitty ones.

protastus 6y ago

> Is there a world where Intel basically admits defeat and tries to become a major ARM player? These major strategy shifts require enormous courage, support and trust at the executive level, because they represent cannibalizing an existing (real) part of the business for the promise of future profits in a business that does not yet exist. Kodak is a textbook example. Execs refused to pivot to digital cameras and associated products, because this would compete with the enormously profitable (and internally powerful) film business.

dralley 6y ago
Kodak was a chemical company, not a camera company, and the problem was not so much that it would compete with their film business as it was that semiconductors and electronics are a very different business. It's one thing to pivot a startup, and another to pivot a beheamoth like the company that Kodak was. And transitioning from one industry to another is a much bigger deal than transitioning from designing x86 CPUs to ARM CPUs. In hindsight, yes, it was a mistake. But it's a very understandable one.

tiernano 6y ago

Intel were an ARM licensee at one stage; my old Dell Axim x51v (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dell_Axim https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dell_Axim) had an Intel XScale (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XScale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XScale) Processor in it... It does look like intel sold it to Marvel, though, so not sure they are still an Licensee of ARM tech...

paxys 6y ago

People are overreacting here. Intel is still very dominant in both desktop and server computing. Even if they continue screwing up at the rate at which they are right now, a complete reversal in their fortunes is like 15-20 years out, if not longer.

klelatti 6y ago
No. AMD are outcompeting them on x86 on desktop, server and laptop. Cloud vendors making and pushing their own Arm CPUs, Apple and MS with their own laptop / desktop CPUs. If Intel can avoid a collapse in market share over a five year horizon they will have done very well. What might save them is a major issue with TSMC (possibly a political one).
- paxys 6y ago
  Where are the numbers to back that up? Intel has a >80% share in laptop and >97% share in server chips. The only place AMD is competitive is high-end desktops, and there too Intel has 60%. The only big blow to Intel so far is the loss of Macs, but Apple's overall market share in that space is under 10%. Sure other vendors (including cloud providers) are starting to roll out ARM offerings, but it's very early to say whether they will be successful, let alone dominant. Remember that Microsoft already tried and failed once with Windows RT many years ago.
  - klelatti 6y ago
    I've seen businesses before where everything seems fine (from the numbers) and then suddenly the structure of the market changes - be it 'disruption' or something similar. Remember Nokia? Intel looks like its in precisely such a situation now: - AMD is as good as or beating Intel on performance on server, desktop and laptop (not just desktops). - Apple (and now MS) looking to control CPUs in their laptop and desktop products and producing Apple has a superior product as a result. - Nvidia will soon own Arm and will be pushing it's own Arm CPUs. - The cloud vendors all the see the (price) advantage of Arm based CPUs and are starting to promote them. - Even a startup like Ampere can produce a product that is competitive with Intel. That's a lot of competition. Add to this that Intel is still having process problems. So on a backward looking basis all looks fine. Looking forward not so much.

klelatti 6y ago

This is not about the ISA - it's about margins and the business model. CPUs have become a commodity and Apple, MS etc want control for lower cost and with the best (TSMC) process. Switching to Arm doesn't solve any of that.