If the goal is to make life-changing amounts of money, the example they showed in the table means that it would be foolish to early exercise: if you win the ipo

If the goal is to make life-changing amounts of money, the example they showed in the table means that it would be foolish to early exercise: if you win the ipo roulette, your life is going to change pretty significantly and in a very similar manner whether you make $4m or $6m. On the other hand if you get the more typical startup outcome, you're going to feel a big difference between making $0 and losing $100k...