8 ms·

What’s the death rate of COVID-19 compared to for example common flu for working age people (30s, 40s)?

by jeofken 6y ago

fnord77 6y ago
everyone talks about the death rate, but for survivors there's evidence of severe permanent damage in some cases.
- jayrot 6y ago
  Also the death rate as a catchall metric completely ignores people who here in absolutely critical, life-or-death condition but were only saved from death by incredible medical intervention and/or just pure luck.
  - lostlogin 6y ago
    Another terrible metric comes in here, money. What does the annual flu season cost versus the covid cost? Money is a bad metric but it does boil things down to one measure. I’m sure these aren’t measured the same way but the effects haven’t been similar. Flu $90b per year versus the covid cost of $16t. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1885332 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1885332 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771764 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771764
    - xienze 6y ago
      > Flu $90b per year versus the covid cost of $16t. I mean that miiiight have something to do with the fact that we basically ignore the flu despite tens of thousands of deaths every year. Whereas with Covid we collectively decided to shut down the entire world.
      - lostlogin 6y ago
        Yes, and why were the shutdowns done? If you compare what happens with uncontrolled covid spread to a those of a flu season, they aren’t really all that similar. Even with the lockdowns, the deaths have been considerably more than tens of thousands.
        xienze 6y ago
        So remember that’s tens of thousands of annual deaths with a vaccine. And what good have lockdowns really done? The virus seems to spread regardless. Look at all those European countries the US was compared to during the summer as an example of how to “do it right.” Not sitting so pretty right now...
        hcknwscommenter 6y ago
        The lockdowns in Europe worked. Full stop. Case rates dropped dramatically. Some of those countries are "not sitting pretty right now" because they ended their lockdowns. The answer is not "lockdowns don't really do any good." The answer is "don't prematurely end your lockdowns." Now that can be burdensome. You can do a middle ground (limited re-opening). That works too, but you have to be very careful and keep a close eye on case numbers and shut down totally as soon as cases ramp up. California tried to do that in the latest surge, but was a little late in implementing the newly stringent measures and even further So. Cal. "resisted" the newly stringent measures and are now suffering mightily.
        xienze 6y ago
        I don’t think any European country has completely lifted their lockdown restrictions. All of it is a “limited re-opening.” Perhaps respiratory viruses spread much more effectively in the winter versus the summer? Maybe that’s it? Nah, it must be that everyone in Europe has perfect hygiene and practiced social distancing perfectly in the summer and they’ve all forgotten how to do those things now.
        hcknwscommenter 6y ago
  - IMTDb 6y ago
    To be fair, the death rate also includes people in terminal condition that ended up catching covid before dying.
eej71 6y ago
One perspective to take is this. 1) CDC reports 5101 deaths for the 35-44 years ago group. I assume YTD with "Date" being "recent". https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm 2) My reading of the 2018 (best I found sorry) mortality table for 35-44 age group would put death by covid as the 5th leading cause of death. Just between suicide (7521) and homicide (3304). https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2018_1100w850h.jpg https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_o... Note that "flu and pneumonia" for that age group was just 956 - putting it at #9 for leading cause of death in the 35-44 age group. So I think covid is a bit more than "just the flu".
- jeofken 6y ago
  Thanks!
rsynnott 6y ago
Well, (a) obviously working age extends well past 40s, generally to mid-late 60s (and higher in some countries). (b) people in their 30s and 40s often have older friends and relatives, who they are disinclined to kill. I'm 35, and am not super-worried about dying of covid; it's certainly possible, but not hugely likely. However, I'm extremely worried about being a vector.
causality0 6y ago
For every person who dies of COVID, nineteen people are hospitalized. Eighteen of those will have permanent heart damage. Ten will have permanent lung damage. Three will have strokes. Two will have neurological damage leading to permanent muscular disability. Two will have neurological damage leading to cognitive impairment. Don't be afraid of covid killing you. Be afraid of it turning you into a mentally disabled cripple who can't catch his breath until you die of heart failure twenty years before your time. Edit: Oh and just for kicks, there's recent evidence it causes erectile dysfunction too.
- jdminhbg 6y ago
  I often wonder how many people actually believe things like this, versus are willing to say them loudly in the hopes that they'll make others take the virus more seriously. Because none of this is remotely evidence-based.
  - atonse 6y ago
    Yeah I'm highly skeptical of those numbers but "Long Covid" is an actual thing we still don't fully understand. So GP's statement is partially true.
  - hcknwscommenter 6y ago
    You seem so confident, but cite nothing (just like the comment you are referring to). However, I do note that all the symptoms noted in the comment above are actual symptoms found in survivors of severe COVID. I'm not sure about the proportions though, but is it a stretch to believe that patients who are hospitalized (by definition, severely impacted by COVID) very often have long-term damage?
    - jdminhbg 6y ago
      There are millions of survivors of Covid, so every conceivable bad health outcome will be present in that population.
      - 6y ago

What’s the death rate of COVID-19 compared to for example common flu for working age people (30s, 40s)?

fnord77 6y ago

everyone talks about the death rate, but for survivors there's evidence of severe permanent damage in some cases.

jayrot 6y ago
Also the death rate as a catchall metric completely ignores people who here in absolutely critical, life-or-death condition but were only saved from death by incredible medical intervention and/or just pure luck.
- lostlogin 6y ago
  Another terrible metric comes in here, money. What does the annual flu season cost versus the covid cost? Money is a bad metric but it does boil things down to one measure. I’m sure these aren’t measured the same way but the effects haven’t been similar. Flu $90b per year versus the covid cost of $16t. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1885332 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1885332 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771764 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771764
  - xienze 6y ago
    > Flu $90b per year versus the covid cost of $16t. I mean that miiiight have something to do with the fact that we basically ignore the flu despite tens of thousands of deaths every year. Whereas with Covid we collectively decided to shut down the entire world.
    - lostlogin 6y ago
      Yes, and why were the shutdowns done? If you compare what happens with uncontrolled covid spread to a those of a flu season, they aren’t really all that similar. Even with the lockdowns, the deaths have been considerably more than tens of thousands.
      - xienze 6y ago
        So remember that’s tens of thousands of annual deaths with a vaccine. And what good have lockdowns really done? The virus seems to spread regardless. Look at all those European countries the US was compared to during the summer as an example of how to “do it right.” Not sitting so pretty right now...
        hcknwscommenter 6y ago
        The lockdowns in Europe worked. Full stop. Case rates dropped dramatically. Some of those countries are "not sitting pretty right now" because they ended their lockdowns. The answer is not "lockdowns don't really do any good." The answer is "don't prematurely end your lockdowns." Now that can be burdensome. You can do a middle ground (limited re-opening). That works too, but you have to be very careful and keep a close eye on case numbers and shut down totally as soon as cases ramp up. California tried to do that in the latest surge, but was a little late in implementing the newly stringent measures and even further So. Cal. "resisted" the newly stringent measures and are now suffering mightily.
        xienze 6y ago
        I don’t think any European country has completely lifted their lockdown restrictions. All of it is a “limited re-opening.” Perhaps respiratory viruses spread much more effectively in the winter versus the summer? Maybe that’s it? Nah, it must be that everyone in Europe has perfect hygiene and practiced social distancing perfectly in the summer and they’ve all forgotten how to do those things now.
        hcknwscommenter 6y ago
- IMTDb 6y ago
  To be fair, the death rate also includes people in terminal condition that ended up catching covid before dying.

eej71 6y ago

One perspective to take is this. 1) CDC reports 5101 deaths for the 35-44 years ago group. I assume YTD with "Date" being "recent". https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm 2) My reading of the 2018 (best I found sorry) mortality table for 35-44 age group would put death by covid as the 5th leading cause of death. Just between suicide (7521) and homicide (3304). https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2018_1100w850h.jpg https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_o... Note that "flu and pneumonia" for that age group was just 956 - putting it at #9 for leading cause of death in the 35-44 age group. So I think covid is a bit more than "just the flu".

jeofken 6y ago
Thanks!

rsynnott 6y ago

Well, (a) obviously working age extends well past 40s, generally to mid-late 60s (and higher in some countries). (b) people in their 30s and 40s often have older friends and relatives, who they are disinclined to kill. I'm 35, and am not super-worried about dying of covid; it's certainly possible, but not hugely likely. However, I'm extremely worried about being a vector.

causality0 6y ago

For every person who dies of COVID, nineteen people are hospitalized. Eighteen of those will have permanent heart damage. Ten will have permanent lung damage. Three will have strokes. Two will have neurological damage leading to permanent muscular disability. Two will have neurological damage leading to cognitive impairment. Don't be afraid of covid killing you. Be afraid of it turning you into a mentally disabled cripple who can't catch his breath until you die of heart failure twenty years before your time. Edit: Oh and just for kicks, there's recent evidence it causes erectile dysfunction too.

jdminhbg 6y ago
I often wonder how many people actually believe things like this, versus are willing to say them loudly in the hopes that they'll make others take the virus more seriously. Because none of this is remotely evidence-based.
- atonse 6y ago
  Yeah I'm highly skeptical of those numbers but "Long Covid" is an actual thing we still don't fully understand. So GP's statement is partially true.
- hcknwscommenter 6y ago
  You seem so confident, but cite nothing (just like the comment you are referring to). However, I do note that all the symptoms noted in the comment above are actual symptoms found in survivors of severe COVID. I'm not sure about the proportions though, but is it a stretch to believe that patients who are hospitalized (by definition, severely impacted by COVID) very often have long-term damage?
  - jdminhbg 6y ago
    There are millions of survivors of Covid, so every conceivable bad health outcome will be present in that population.
    - 6y ago