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“a successful $775 bet would return $100 in profit. It implied an 89 percent chance that Trump would win.“ Doesn’t imply anything of the sort. Get your shit st
by danielscrubs 6y ago
“a successful $775 bet would return $100 in profit. It implied an 89 percent chance that Trump would win.“
Doesn’t imply anything of the sort. Get your shit straight Slate, this is junior high school level of statistics.
- Mouse47 6y agoIt's been a while since I've done any stats but I'm coming up with roughly the same number they are (~88.5). I'm trying to find the percentage chance for which the expected value of such a bet is 0. Or are you taking issue with the wording of "chance that Trump would win"?
- danielscrubs 6y agoThe wording. Basically you need to take into consideration the bookkeepers profits. See GAMBLING odds vs probabilities here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds#Gambling_odds_versus_probabilities https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds#Gambling_odds_versus_pr... If you want to deep dive you can look into shin probabilities for one model of how to do the calculations.