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Bitcoin's exchange rate has advanced in regular four-year cycles going back to about 2010. The peaks are phase-shifted from the four-year halving period. Each

by aazaa 6y ago

Bitcoin's exchange rate has advanced in regular four-year cycles going back to about 2010. The peaks are phase-shifted from the four-year halving period. Each cycle is punctuated by a media hype deluge. Nonstop coverage of Bitcoin in the popular media. Face ripping rallies every other day. Tales of freshly-minted millionaires and fortunes buried in landfills. That hasn't happened yet. Each cycle brings in more news coverage, more users, more holders, more speculators, more critics, and more haters. If this trend holds, Bitcoin will follow one of two paths: it will be replaced by something better at its primary function; or it will replace something else. Network effects favor the latter. The current cycle just happens to coincide with the largest expansion money base the world has ever seen.

The_Colonel 6y ago
> it will be replaced by something better at its primary function What is its primary function? I used to think it was supposed to be a currency, but it's failing quite badly at that. But it keeps growing so what's the actual primary function?
- qertoip 6y ago
  Store of value. Resistant to inflation and hard to seize (if properly secured).
  - The_Colonel 6y ago
    Bitcoin does not seem like a safe long term value storage. Would you be willing to put your life savings in bitcoin for e.g. 30 years? I wouldn't and I would be surprised if many did.
    - ru552 6y ago
      Why does it have to be all or nothing? 10% to 15% of your portfolio is more reasonable. Adjust the percentage based on your bull/bear feeling towards the market.
      - The_Colonel 6y ago
        That sounds more like investment/speculation. I was speaking against this specific idea that bitcoin is (long term, stable) store of value.
- ur-whale 6y ago
  > What is its primary function? Inflation hedge. If you look at the amound of USD that has been issued in the last year alone, that's a fairly attractive proposition.
  - noxer 6y ago
    It actually means no ATH was reached. We just reached a higher number in dollar value. The actual goods you can buy with one bitcoin is still lower than at the peak in 2017. Obvious measuring form peak to peak is rather meaningless.
    - ur-whale 6y ago
      Can't disagree with this. Measuring anything in USD is self-flagellation.

by aazaa 6y ago

The_Colonel 6y ago

> it will be replaced by something better at its primary function What is its primary function? I used to think it was supposed to be a currency, but it's failing quite badly at that. But it keeps growing so what's the actual primary function?

qertoip 6y ago
Store of value. Resistant to inflation and hard to seize (if properly secured).
- The_Colonel 6y ago
  Bitcoin does not seem like a safe long term value storage. Would you be willing to put your life savings in bitcoin for e.g. 30 years? I wouldn't and I would be surprised if many did.
  - ru552 6y ago
    Why does it have to be all or nothing? 10% to 15% of your portfolio is more reasonable. Adjust the percentage based on your bull/bear feeling towards the market.
    - The_Colonel 6y ago
      That sounds more like investment/speculation. I was speaking against this specific idea that bitcoin is (long term, stable) store of value.
ur-whale 6y ago
> What is its primary function? Inflation hedge. If you look at the amound of USD that has been issued in the last year alone, that's a fairly attractive proposition.
- noxer 6y ago
  It actually means no ATH was reached. We just reached a higher number in dollar value. The actual goods you can buy with one bitcoin is still lower than at the peak in 2017. Obvious measuring form peak to peak is rather meaningless.
  - ur-whale 6y ago
    Can't disagree with this. Measuring anything in USD is self-flagellation.