I admittedly have not looked at the data, but I would have a _very_ hard time believing that the total population of NYC is down 40% based on what I see outside

I admittedly have not looked at the data, but I would have a _very_ hard time believing that the total population of NYC is down 40% based on what I see outside my window and while moving around the city (eg to the go the gym etc). The city feels a little quieter than it normally is, but certainly not the ghost town that a 40% population reduction would be. It follows from that observation that, if 40% of the population did indeed leave, that they would have to have been replaced by people moving into the city. New lease signings being down suggests this is not the case. As an anecdote, about 10% of the apartments in my building that I can see out my window are empty (normally ~1-2% are at any given time). The buildings across the street (which are mostly owner-occupied) are all still occupied.