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A true future predicting algorithm should be aware of its existence and the affect its prediction will have over the receiver / receivers.
by gundisclosed 6y ago
A true future predicting algorithm should be aware of its existence and the affect its prediction will have over the receiver / receivers.
- mysterydip 6y agoIndeed, shouldn't that be the point?
- gundisclosed 6y agoYes, but that would make it infinitely hard for the algorithm as the output is depending on who is receiving the output. Hence the algorithm should have perfect understanding of environment, receiver and equation between the environment and receiver.
- spacemanmatt 6y agoHari Selden had a pretty developed concept what people can know about an algorithm that anticipates their behavior.
- BlueTemplar 6y agoThey got mad ? "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." - not actually Hari Seldon
- prionassembly 6y agoThis is the gist of the Rational Expectations wave of economic theory. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1995/ceremony-speech/ https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1995/cer...
- Threeve303 6y agoIn physics, I believe this is called the observer effect.
- omphalos 6y agoConsider the problem of predicting an agent's binary choice. If an agent follows a strategy of always choosing the opposite of what the algorithm predicts, then the algorithm's prediction will always be incorrect. A "true future predicting algorithm" cannot correctly predict the actions of certain kinds of agents, as long as those agents can observe the prediction.
- gundisclosed 6y agoThere will always be probability involved, the algorithm’s job will be also be to “wrap the prediction” in a way receiver thinks will it will benefit from ( negotiate ) . Hence leading to following the prediction.