2 ms·
Let's toss some real numbers here. * Last death of Diamond Princess occurred after more than 2 months. * Over the past two months, the number of known cases i
by woofie11 6y ago
Let's toss some real numbers here.
* Last death of Diamond Princess occurred after more than 2 months.
* Over the past two months, the number of known cases in the US roughly doubled from 8 million to 16 million.
This means there are a lot of people who haven't died yet, and dividing deaths by cases is an underestimate of CFR by up to a factor of 2.
That doesn't mean we don't have the data. We could e.g. take the infections from June and look at how many of those resulted in death as a final CFR estimate. However, the number I gave (deaths over cases) didn't do that. It's a preliminary CFR without that sort of correction, and a correction to final IFR can go up (people who haven't died yet) or down (unidentified cases).
anoncake argued this was an overestimate by definition, and anyone who said otherwise didn't have a clue. anoncake was wrong.