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> Mr Hancock said there was "nothing to suggest" it caused worse disease or that vaccines would no longer work. I was paying more attention to the vaccines wou

> Mr Hancock said there was "nothing to suggest" it caused worse disease or that vaccines would no longer work. I was paying more attention to the vaccines would no longer work part. People need a worldview in order to function. Mine has been shattered a few times, including with this pandemic. Still, I have a lot of expectations. I don't think there will be anything worse than COVID-19 that comes from a highly communicable respiratory transmitted illness, just like when I lived in the Bay Area I didn't think there would be a huge earthquake anytime soon... The possibility of the current crop of vaccines not being overwhelmingly effective, or not being distributed widely, or not being taken widely, thereby extending the quarantine past this summer, is something I'm braced for (although not really prepared for).

pyronik19 6y ago
The only reason people are tolerating more lockdowns and more quarantines and masks are because the vaccine which is being deployed now is going to end all of that. First it was 14 days to slow the spread and flatten the curve and somehow they stretched that for a year into wait for the vaccine. Unlike Charlie Brown, if they pull this football away I won't be obeying any more orders. Gates said it might be into 2022 until masks will end. Who the put Gates in charge?
- standardUser 6y ago
  Your experience sounds extremely localized (I'd guess California). The pandemic has been handled very differently state-to-state and city-to-city (not to mention internationally). I could see being frustrated if you live in one of the stricter regions, but you should also remember that in many parts of the US and the world, people have been having parties and going to bars, etc for most of this year.
  - outside1234 6y ago
    And, outside of Asia and Australia and New Zealand where there is actual containment, causing the rest of us to die because of it.
- ben_w 6y ago
  Why would 14 days be enough to stop an exponential curve from overwhelming all medical facilities? > Who the put Gates in charge? He isn’t, what you wrote sounds like his option. My option would be ~9 months from now, but it’s still just an opinion, and I’ve been wrong about COVID before.
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > First it was 14 days to slow the spread and flatten the curve and somehow they stretched that for a year into wait for the vaccine. In the US, where it was cited, the 14-day thing referred to strict lockdowns, was always projected to be cycled on and off as needed to maintain caseload and to involve other controls (masks, social distancing, lighter commerce/gathering restrictions) outside of the strict lockdowns period, and strict lockdowns mostly didn't get extended much beyond that length until some of the new ones recently (though some did get restored, perhaps in slightly different form, months later, hence the new onrs), and in many cases were less effective than planned because they saw very poor compliance and inconsistent enforcement, and because travel with different areas that did not enforce similar controls was not curtailed. (And sometimes, those “different areas” were the next county over, with lots of crossover for shopping, work, and personal services.)
- tasty_freeze 6y ago
  > Who the put Gates in charge? Q: Since when did someone citing their opinion turn into claiming they are in charge? A: It happens commonly in strawman arguments
- numpad0 6y ago
  I find it awkward that people don’t understand this: experts, researchers, doctors, WHO, CDC, they are not “in charge of” viruses. They don’t represent the virus. They have no direct control over the virus. They are not, like, negotiating a talk or anything. The thing don’t even qualify as life by our definitions. Those experts just happens to know how best to handle it. Whether that handling instruction is ideal or compatible with the society up to 2019/11, that’s entirely beyond their control and out of their normal scope of interest. Is this that hard to comprehend?
- y-c-o-m-b 6y ago
  > The only reason people are tolerating more lockdowns and more quarantines and masks are because the vaccine which is being deployed now is going to end all of that. FYI - there's no concrete data out yet that suggests the vaccine will stop transmission of the virus. The vaccine is only to reduce symptoms from turning severe. They hope it can reduce transmission, but those studies aren't complete. Also kids and young teens are not going to be vaccinated until probably summer. > First it was 14 days to slow the spread and flatten the curve and somehow they stretched that for a year into wait for the vaccine 14 days was the optimistic scenario in which people actually follow rules. Many people did not and do not follow the rules.
im3w1l 6y ago
> extending the quarantine past this summer Heads would roll. And I meant that in the literal sense.
- benatkin 6y ago
  I feel pretty certain it will be different from what it is today, sure, but how much would be kept? Wearing masks? Some sort of vaccine proof so you don't have to wear them? Still no indoor events with more than, say, 500 people?
  - amanaplanacanal 6y ago
    If they are doing it right, they will be looking at fatalities and (especially) hospitalizations, and if they are going down then remove restrictions.
    - benatkin 6y ago
      Same as the reopening late this past summer. I guess there will be another reopening and we'll see what happens now that some have the vaccines.
bb123 6y ago
Even with vaccines it seems to me quite likely that this will go on past the summer, no? By then only a fragment of the population will have been vaccinated, and it seems likely much of the social restrictions we have today will need to stick around. The pessimist gut feeling in me says it's more likely to be 18 months to 2 years until things have a semblance of normal again. I have nothing to back that up, but thats what I'm preparing for.

pyronik19 6y ago

The only reason people are tolerating more lockdowns and more quarantines and masks are because the vaccine which is being deployed now is going to end all of that. First it was 14 days to slow the spread and flatten the curve and somehow they stretched that for a year into wait for the vaccine. Unlike Charlie Brown, if they pull this football away I won't be obeying any more orders. Gates said it might be into 2022 until masks will end. Who the put Gates in charge?

standardUser 6y ago
Your experience sounds extremely localized (I'd guess California). The pandemic has been handled very differently state-to-state and city-to-city (not to mention internationally). I could see being frustrated if you live in one of the stricter regions, but you should also remember that in many parts of the US and the world, people have been having parties and going to bars, etc for most of this year.
- outside1234 6y ago
  And, outside of Asia and Australia and New Zealand where there is actual containment, causing the rest of us to die because of it.
ben_w 6y ago
Why would 14 days be enough to stop an exponential curve from overwhelming all medical facilities? > Who the put Gates in charge? He isn’t, what you wrote sounds like his option. My option would be ~9 months from now, but it’s still just an opinion, and I’ve been wrong about COVID before.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> First it was 14 days to slow the spread and flatten the curve and somehow they stretched that for a year into wait for the vaccine. In the US, where it was cited, the 14-day thing referred to strict lockdowns, was always projected to be cycled on and off as needed to maintain caseload and to involve other controls (masks, social distancing, lighter commerce/gathering restrictions) outside of the strict lockdowns period, and strict lockdowns mostly didn't get extended much beyond that length until some of the new ones recently (though some did get restored, perhaps in slightly different form, months later, hence the new onrs), and in many cases were less effective than planned because they saw very poor compliance and inconsistent enforcement, and because travel with different areas that did not enforce similar controls was not curtailed. (And sometimes, those “different areas” were the next county over, with lots of crossover for shopping, work, and personal services.)
tasty_freeze 6y ago
> Who the put Gates in charge? Q: Since when did someone citing their opinion turn into claiming they are in charge? A: It happens commonly in strawman arguments
numpad0 6y ago
I find it awkward that people don’t understand this: experts, researchers, doctors, WHO, CDC, they are not “in charge of” viruses. They don’t represent the virus. They have no direct control over the virus. They are not, like, negotiating a talk or anything. The thing don’t even qualify as life by our definitions. Those experts just happens to know how best to handle it. Whether that handling instruction is ideal or compatible with the society up to 2019/11, that’s entirely beyond their control and out of their normal scope of interest. Is this that hard to comprehend?
y-c-o-m-b 6y ago
> The only reason people are tolerating more lockdowns and more quarantines and masks are because the vaccine which is being deployed now is going to end all of that. FYI - there's no concrete data out yet that suggests the vaccine will stop transmission of the virus. The vaccine is only to reduce symptoms from turning severe. They hope it can reduce transmission, but those studies aren't complete. Also kids and young teens are not going to be vaccinated until probably summer. > First it was 14 days to slow the spread and flatten the curve and somehow they stretched that for a year into wait for the vaccine 14 days was the optimistic scenario in which people actually follow rules. Many people did not and do not follow the rules.

im3w1l 6y ago

> extending the quarantine past this summer Heads would roll. And I meant that in the literal sense.

benatkin 6y ago
I feel pretty certain it will be different from what it is today, sure, but how much would be kept? Wearing masks? Some sort of vaccine proof so you don't have to wear them? Still no indoor events with more than, say, 500 people?
- amanaplanacanal 6y ago
  If they are doing it right, they will be looking at fatalities and (especially) hospitalizations, and if they are going down then remove restrictions.
  - benatkin 6y ago
    Same as the reopening late this past summer. I guess there will be another reopening and we'll see what happens now that some have the vaccines.

bb123 6y ago

Even with vaccines it seems to me quite likely that this will go on past the summer, no? By then only a fragment of the population will have been vaccinated, and it seems likely much of the social restrictions we have today will need to stick around. The pessimist gut feeling in me says it's more likely to be 18 months to 2 years until things have a semblance of normal again. I have nothing to back that up, but thats what I'm preparing for.