I think what we are saying is mostly just talking about how strong the evidence (how it has gone) is, for the outcome that it will be like that in the future.

I think what we are saying is mostly just talking about how strong the evidence (how it has gone) is, for the outcome that it will be like that in the future. I don't think I'm "clearly smarter", I just happen to have taken a class that said a little about stochastic processes, which I think are neat, and therefore jumped at a chance to try to apply it a little bit. I don't have any deep understanding of investment. (contravariant might though, idk.)