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There's this concept of "mature" technologies that have reached more or less the optimum characteristics and are only going to see slight tweaks until requireme

There's this concept of "mature" technologies that have reached more or less the optimum characteristics and are only going to see slight tweaks until requirements or materials change. eg the assault rifle has seen only one major change since the '40s (the switch to small caliber high velocity in the '60s), transonic passenger and cargo airplane airframe shapes have settled on a single general configuration, &c The '60s in particular just happened to be a point when lots of aerospace stuff happened to reach maturity, along with our understanding of the common-case aerodynamics.

gsnedders 6y ago
It's worthwhile pointing out that there have been significant changes to aviation since, most notably the move to twin-engine aircraft. But ultimately that was made possible through small incremental improvements in engine design (and material sciences and manufacturing). There haven't been similar leaps forward since. The Boeing 747-8 is 29% more fuel efficient than the 747-100 in absolute terms before you even start considering the extra space it has as a larger aircraft. Some of that is aerodynamic refinement (and they're limited by starting with the older airframe!) and some of that is newer engines. And the 747-8 is relatively poor compared with many newer airframe designs.
- chrisbrandow 6y ago
  Deinitely lots of refinements!! But didn’t twin engine aircraft emerge with the DC-2/3 era? Unless I’m completely misunderstanding the term.
LoSboccacc 6y ago
http://www.cadhistory.net/13%20IBM,%20Lockheed%20and%20Dassault.pdf http://www.cadhistory.net/13%20IBM,%20Lockheed%20and%20Dassa... another likely inflexion point was the introduction of CADAM around the period
robotnikman 6y ago
We can see this with smartphones as well
- azernik 6y ago
  My very-low-confidence prediction is that we'll see a burst of experimentation once foldable screens become viable.
  - milesokeefe 6y ago
    And cheap? Because many versions of them are on their second public generation, and not too many people are excited about them.
    - azernik 6y ago
      I was including "economically viable" under "viable". I didn't even realize there were any available on the market yet, and looking right now it looks like they're still at the $2k price point and still have mechanical issues.
chrisbrandow 6y ago
Yeah. That’s a helpful concept. I noticed that there are just so many technologies whose essential characteristics were discovered/demonstrated in the late 50’s/early 60’s. And by no means just in aviation. It’s almost easier to name foundational technologies that weren’t discovered by then than the reverse.

gsnedders 6y ago

It's worthwhile pointing out that there have been significant changes to aviation since, most notably the move to twin-engine aircraft. But ultimately that was made possible through small incremental improvements in engine design (and material sciences and manufacturing). There haven't been similar leaps forward since. The Boeing 747-8 is 29% more fuel efficient than the 747-100 in absolute terms before you even start considering the extra space it has as a larger aircraft. Some of that is aerodynamic refinement (and they're limited by starting with the older airframe!) and some of that is newer engines. And the 747-8 is relatively poor compared with many newer airframe designs.

chrisbrandow 6y ago
Deinitely lots of refinements!! But didn’t twin engine aircraft emerge with the DC-2/3 era? Unless I’m completely misunderstanding the term.

LoSboccacc 6y ago

http://www.cadhistory.net/13%20IBM,%20Lockheed%20and%20Dassault.pdf http://www.cadhistory.net/13%20IBM,%20Lockheed%20and%20Dassa... another likely inflexion point was the introduction of CADAM around the period

robotnikman 6y ago

We can see this with smartphones as well

azernik 6y ago
My very-low-confidence prediction is that we'll see a burst of experimentation once foldable screens become viable.
- milesokeefe 6y ago
  And cheap? Because many versions of them are on their second public generation, and not too many people are excited about them.
  - azernik 6y ago
    I was including "economically viable" under "viable". I didn't even realize there were any available on the market yet, and looking right now it looks like they're still at the $2k price point and still have mechanical issues.

chrisbrandow 6y ago

Yeah. That’s a helpful concept. I noticed that there are just so many technologies whose essential characteristics were discovered/demonstrated in the late 50’s/early 60’s. And by no means just in aviation. It’s almost easier to name foundational technologies that weren’t discovered by then than the reverse.