5 ms·

More and more countries, especially in Europe, are setting a deadline of 2030 for sale of new ICE cars. So the assumption sounds correct. On the other hand Tes

by Xixi 6y ago

More and more countries, especially in Europe, are setting a deadline of 2030 for sale of new ICE cars. So the assumption sounds correct. On the other hand Tesla market share of EV cars in Germany in 2020 is barely 12% (in terms of unit, certainly higher in EUR) [1]. I expect numbers to be worse in countries that favor smaller cars (France, for instance). Most European auto makers are barely starting to release EV cars, and Tesla is already close to single digit market shares. They are here to stay, but like other US brands I don't think they have such a bright future outside of the US. [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2020/11/22/18-plugin-vehicle-share-in-germany-in-october-record-month/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/11/22/18-plugin-vehicle-share...

neogodless 6y ago
Aside from self-driving and software, electric cars are described as simpler devices than internal combustion engine (ICE) powered machines. Lower maintenance and all that. As simpler devices, building them should be something competitors are able to do. Battery technology is also, of course, critical to get the right balance of price, range, charging speed, production numbers, etc. So given global regulations putting pressure on industry conversion from ICE to electric powertrains, there is zero doubt that investments will be made by big players and they will have to stop playing games and putting out weird-looking vehicles they do not really intend to sell. This will have an impact on Tesla's presumed dominance of electric cars, but how much of an impact is hotly contested!
nickik 6y ago
Because of EU regulation all car makers have dropped all their plug in cars into Europe. Yes that dropped Tesla market share in Europe, but it also means that many cars wont even be sold in the US. Many of those cars in Europe are also plug-in hybrid, a pass over solution that also has to be replaced. Even more of them are small city cars with short range. The same stories btw were going around about China. Tesla is losing market share in China and so on. And then Tesla opened a factory there, and guess what happened. The same thing will be with Europe, once Tesla has a huge factory there, their market share will grow again. That Tesla has even 12% (again with plug-in hybrids) share in Europe with a factory in California, compared to all the German and French companies who are producing locally is actually impressive. Tesla globally has 28% of the pure BEV market, and that what matter the most.
- Xixi 6y ago
  12% is for BEV only (BEVs are in bold in the link I copied, the other ones are PHEV). Including PHEV, Tesla market share is even lower (~6% for 2020, probably lower as this is based only on the top 20). The best selling BEV in Germany in October is the Renault Zoe, with a range of 300 to 390km (190 to 240mi). Second is the Volkswagen ID.3, with a range of 330 to 550km (205 to 340mi). These are compact cars, but perfectly sized for the European market, with decent range. Until recently the Model 3 had only 250km of range I believe. I don't think Tesla is going after this market, to be fair. And I'm not sure they should. But they can certainly make a dent in BMW/Mercedes market shares. Which is already pretty incredible, frankly, as American cars have historically not been very competitive in Europe. Unless, of course, that self-driving technology matures...
  - nickik 6y ago
    Ok, sorry about that mistake. Tesla will enter that market and they should. They want to sell 10 million + cars. Model 3 has far more range then 250km, it had then that even when it was released years ago. Its comparable with the ID.3, more then the Zoe.
  - maxdo 6y ago
    A lot of mistakes in your analytics. Tesla increasing their global share not losing. ATM it's ~26% global ( oct 2020) If you cut segments where it's not represented yet. e.g. cheap Zoe etc. it will be even higher and totally dominates luxury and performance ev market. In 2022 tesla will deliver 25k car, and you can compare Zoe sales and Tesla sales. Zoe sales also driven by car sharing, everybody knows that. It's more a public transport segment. Range of model 3 is 350 miles. But you also confusing WLTP and EPA. EPA is more conservative. sometimes up to 50%. Tesla will at least double their sales in EU in 2021 due to delivering cheaper, locally Berlin produced, with local service model 3 and Model Y. So far Model 3 is the best selling EV by volume despite been a very expensive car, In some market $50-80k. And even with this price it easily oversold nisan leaf, zoe etc... WV probably will be the biggest competitor in EU, but don't compare their first pre-order delivery sales with delivery of the car that is 2-3 years on the market :) In my opinion the biggest challenges for tesla are 1. an ability to quickly enter local markets. They still not represented in many markets. E.g. LatAm is almost 0. You can't buy tesla in brazil... at all. 2. Deliver wider range of models and more often refresh it. Yes, tesla is still not on par with production abilities of traditional auto makers. Model S and X are very old cars even they update a lot inside. Model 3 is getting old as well. Those are great cars, but if you spent $80k+ on model s and you see on the road same 5 y.o. car that is not that shiny , you have same feeling, that your car maybe is not that cool and bright. But every new model production is a huge problem for tesla. Maybe model Y was simple, but the rest.... They learned how to scale production. Now they have to learn how to scale scaling. To explain #2. I want EV I considered Model Y. For me it's still a small SUV. Due to the fact there is 0 other brands in this segment with decent mile range, performance, and software, Model Y was no brainer for me. If there will be another brand, even not that great but it will be bigger , but not CYBERTRUCK big, I'll chose another brand for my next car, simply due to size, despite been a loyal tesla owner.

by Xixi 6y ago

neogodless 6y ago

Aside from self-driving and software, electric cars are described as simpler devices than internal combustion engine (ICE) powered machines. Lower maintenance and all that. As simpler devices, building them should be something competitors are able to do. Battery technology is also, of course, critical to get the right balance of price, range, charging speed, production numbers, etc. So given global regulations putting pressure on industry conversion from ICE to electric powertrains, there is zero doubt that investments will be made by big players and they will have to stop playing games and putting out weird-looking vehicles they do not really intend to sell. This will have an impact on Tesla's presumed dominance of electric cars, but how much of an impact is hotly contested!

nickik 6y ago

Because of EU regulation all car makers have dropped all their plug in cars into Europe. Yes that dropped Tesla market share in Europe, but it also means that many cars wont even be sold in the US. Many of those cars in Europe are also plug-in hybrid, a pass over solution that also has to be replaced. Even more of them are small city cars with short range. The same stories btw were going around about China. Tesla is losing market share in China and so on. And then Tesla opened a factory there, and guess what happened. The same thing will be with Europe, once Tesla has a huge factory there, their market share will grow again. That Tesla has even 12% (again with plug-in hybrids) share in Europe with a factory in California, compared to all the German and French companies who are producing locally is actually impressive. Tesla globally has 28% of the pure BEV market, and that what matter the most.

Xixi 6y ago
12% is for BEV only (BEVs are in bold in the link I copied, the other ones are PHEV). Including PHEV, Tesla market share is even lower (~6% for 2020, probably lower as this is based only on the top 20). The best selling BEV in Germany in October is the Renault Zoe, with a range of 300 to 390km (190 to 240mi). Second is the Volkswagen ID.3, with a range of 330 to 550km (205 to 340mi). These are compact cars, but perfectly sized for the European market, with decent range. Until recently the Model 3 had only 250km of range I believe. I don't think Tesla is going after this market, to be fair. And I'm not sure they should. But they can certainly make a dent in BMW/Mercedes market shares. Which is already pretty incredible, frankly, as American cars have historically not been very competitive in Europe. Unless, of course, that self-driving technology matures...
- nickik 6y ago
  Ok, sorry about that mistake. Tesla will enter that market and they should. They want to sell 10 million + cars. Model 3 has far more range then 250km, it had then that even when it was released years ago. Its comparable with the ID.3, more then the Zoe.
- maxdo 6y ago
  A lot of mistakes in your analytics. Tesla increasing their global share not losing. ATM it's ~26% global ( oct 2020) If you cut segments where it's not represented yet. e.g. cheap Zoe etc. it will be even higher and totally dominates luxury and performance ev market. In 2022 tesla will deliver 25k car, and you can compare Zoe sales and Tesla sales. Zoe sales also driven by car sharing, everybody knows that. It's more a public transport segment. Range of model 3 is 350 miles. But you also confusing WLTP and EPA. EPA is more conservative. sometimes up to 50%. Tesla will at least double their sales in EU in 2021 due to delivering cheaper, locally Berlin produced, with local service model 3 and Model Y. So far Model 3 is the best selling EV by volume despite been a very expensive car, In some market $50-80k. And even with this price it easily oversold nisan leaf, zoe etc... WV probably will be the biggest competitor in EU, but don't compare their first pre-order delivery sales with delivery of the car that is 2-3 years on the market :) In my opinion the biggest challenges for tesla are 1. an ability to quickly enter local markets. They still not represented in many markets. E.g. LatAm is almost 0. You can't buy tesla in brazil... at all. 2. Deliver wider range of models and more often refresh it. Yes, tesla is still not on par with production abilities of traditional auto makers. Model S and X are very old cars even they update a lot inside. Model 3 is getting old as well. Those are great cars, but if you spent $80k+ on model s and you see on the road same 5 y.o. car that is not that shiny , you have same feeling, that your car maybe is not that cool and bright. But every new model production is a huge problem for tesla. Maybe model Y was simple, but the rest.... They learned how to scale production. Now they have to learn how to scale scaling. To explain #2. I want EV I considered Model Y. For me it's still a small SUV. Due to the fact there is 0 other brands in this segment with decent mile range, performance, and software, Model Y was no brainer for me. If there will be another brand, even not that great but it will be bigger , but not CYBERTRUCK big, I'll chose another brand for my next car, simply due to size, despite been a loyal tesla owner.