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It’s a bubble driven by exuberance and extreme government financial stimulus. It’s like pets.com, Worldcom, AOL, BlackBerry, etc.
by new_realist 6y ago
It’s a bubble driven by exuberance and extreme government financial stimulus. It’s like pets.com, Worldcom, AOL, BlackBerry, etc.
- jti107 6y agoexactly! their electric drive train is fantastic but their build quality is subpar for a $35K+ vehicle. all the other portions of their business like autonomous driving and solar are negligible relative to their car business. the only explanation is that there is a ton of capital and people have no clue where to put it so they are investing like wallstreetbets.
- WillPostForFood 6y agoAnd low interest rates (part of government stimulus). It feels like a bubble to me too, but on the other hand, the failure of traditional car manufacturers to deliver electric cars leaves the possibility open that Tesla will be the next Toyota/GM.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- gkfasdfasdf 6y agoThis. It still seems like other carmakers are not taking EVs seriously, and are content to milk ICE vehicles to the very end.
- clouddrover 6y agoNo, it's just that Europe and China have the priority for the larger manufacturers because they have stricter fleet emissions standards. Volkswagen and Renault BEVs outsell Tesla in Europe, for example.
- twblalock 6y agoOn the contrary, most major brands have announced new electric and/or plug-in hybrid cars coming out in the next 5 years. That includes all of the major German brands, along with Ford and GM. The Big 3 Japanese brands (Toyota, Honda, and Nissan) already have some and are planning to build more. Altogether, those brands account for most of the global auto market.
- WillPostForFood 6y agomost major brands have announced new electric and/or plug-in hybrid cars coming out in the next 5 years So 2025 is when major brands are serious about electric cars? Doesn't that seem late?
- twblalock 6y ago> So 2025 is when major brands are serious about electric cars? Doesn't that seem late? Why would that be late? It might be too early! There is not a good infrastructure for electric car charging. Right now it is a luxury for homeowners and people who rent high-end apartments. Even in California, where I see electric cars literally every time I drive somewhere, the infrastructure is easily overwhelmed -- last year there were long lines outside of Tesla Supercharger stations on Thanksgiving and Christmas, and that was just for Tesla owners! Imagine how bad it will get when electric cars become available at prices that most people can afford! Considering those challenges, it's really very encouraging that mass-market automakers are willing to take the risk - especially since the government has not been willing to take the complementary risk of building charging stations on public streets to the extent that would be necessary for apartment-dwellers to be able to realistically consider owning electric cars.
- Noos 6y agoNot sure about the risk. Like you said, we'd have to massively redo infrastructure on a huge level to see any penetration beyond luxury alternative use. If we'd start to also see increased carbon taxes or various efforts to reduce climate change, both vehicle and infrastructure might become even more expensive and more of a luxury. Plus, it seems as a culture we are just wasting the productivity gains from increased technology and automation and dumping the value into money games; eventually i expect electric cars will be moot because there won't be enough jobs or job creation to sustain enough of a middle class to afford them.
- johnrgrace 6y agoGM alone has 20 electric models coming out between now and 2023, 30 total by 2025.
- ocdtrekkie 6y agoI wouldn't count out Toyota just holding for the right market forces. Go car shopping today and you quickly realize Toyota has some of the most sophisticated technology on the road already. Their entire product line is available in hybrids with a low speed EV mode. Most of their competitors don't seem to be offering hybrids of larger vehicles like SUVs. But if you need a third row seat car that gets 50% better gas mileage than anything else in it's class... Toyota can sell you one. I suspect the only reason they aren't selling full EVs is that the number of people willing to shell out for them is still so small.
- blackrock 6y agoElectric vehicles are not cheap. Toyota should just market their hot electric sports car under the Lexus brand. Those that can afford a Lexus can easily afford a luxury electric car. Or shell out $80,000+ for a fancy whiz bang electric car.
- LanceJones 6y agoSource? In August 2020, the Porsche Taycan was Porsche's #1 -selling vehicle in Europe... outselling their 911 and all their SUVs. It would seem, rather, that supply is the current constraint for well performing EVs.
- ocdtrekkie 6y agoPorsche. Aka, the same people who can afford a Tesla. If you think Porsche and Tesla are examples of car manufacturers with regular customer demand, you are very, very privileged. The Taycan has an MSRP of $103,000-185,000. Toyota sells cars to normal people, who are looking to spend between $15,000 and $30,000.
- twblalock 6y ago> And low interest rates (part of government stimulus). What do low interest rates have to do with this? All stocks are up somewhat due to low interest rates -- why should Tesla's stock be an outlier unless something else explains its rise over the past year? I'd like to see some numbers on this, but I don't think most Tesla buyers finance their cars. I bet most pay cash. So low interest rates don't really explain their sales numbers either. So, how do you think low interest rates help Tesla?
- WillPostForFood 6y agoBecause it is very difficult to get returns in traditional ways when interest is near zero, so money floods the stock market. If you are chasing appreciation, you aren’t going to bet on GM, or even Toyota, you are going for Tesla, Airbnb, or whatever is else is institutionally favored.
- twblalock 6y agoWhat do you mean by "institutionally favored"?
- deckard1 6y ago"Fools rush in where angels fear to tread" Tesla might just be the next MySpace or Friendster. They're coming in, figuring out how to get the technology to work, paying for the infrastructure (or getting others to pay), and setting it up so that Toyota can come in and scoop up the market. I think Tesla is in for a difficult future. They seem to not understand that the people that buy Camry are not the same that buy Mercedes. Playing the same brand to the luxury crowd and the cost-conscious crowd has never, to my knowledge, worked. People will probably point to Apple, but Apple isn't luxury. It's premium. You really have to compare Rolex or Patek to Apple Watch to see where the rubber meets the road. The Model 3 is about $10k over the price point they need to be, and rolling that out just about damn near killed Elon from reports I've read. As they target the cheaper market, their margins drop and then they risk losing the Mercedes crowd entirely. So there go their fat margins. I'd imagine their warranty costs also increase and will squeeze them as well. I can't imagine Panasonic, LG, etc. sitting around while Tesla whips them around on the battery tech front, either. Tesla is like a toddler trying to be a conglomerate. Elon is stretched so thin he's going to have a mental breakdown.
- chrisstanchak 6y agoDrive a Tesla on autopilot and your opinion will chnage.
- option 6y agolast time I checked no car in the world other than Tesla's gets better with time - software updates adding new capabilities, supercharger network expansion.
- 0xy 6y agoHow can it get better with time if Tesla's QA is so bad that cars regularly get delivered with misaligned panels, serious faults and faulty electronics? If their hardware QA is bad, what makes you think their software QA won't fail and one day drive you into a barricade it thinks is a highway exit? Would you get in an airplane that had daily software updates? It has more capabilities right?