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>ANYONE who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite universe is either a madman or an economist A nice video that goes in depth about ho

by konjin 6y ago

>ANYONE who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite universe is either a madman or an economist A nice video that goes in depth about how people just don't have an intuition about exponential growth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqcHG7QUK9k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqcHG7QUK9k

skissane 6y ago
> > ANYONE who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite universe is either a madman or an economist Of course it is true that in a finite universe, exponential growth can only continue for a finite amount of time. But that time could easily be far longer than you or I will live to see. We could be centuries, millennia, maybe even millions of years, away from the peak. The peak of human civilisation might be the point at which every inhabitable (or feasibly terraformable) planet in the galaxy has been colonised. (That assumes that intergalactic travel will never be feasible – an assumption which is probably true, but we can't be certain about it.) Peak galactic colonisation could easily be several million years hence–if we ever get there. Of course, we could quite easily annihilate ourselves a whole lot sooner than that, or interstellar colonisation could turn out to be permanently technologically or economically infeasible, or a bunch of other possibilities. But that's the thing, nobody knows where the peak is, worst case scenario is we could be living in it right now, best case scenario is it could be millions of years into the future, and lots of possibilities in between those two extremes.
- nicoburns 6y ago
  What makes you see the interplanetary scenario as bettet than the stay-on-earth scenario?
  - drdeca 6y ago
    More lives that are worth living, presumably. Also, aesthetic. Also, reduced chance of extinction (before each given point in time).
  - skissane 6y ago
    Better? As in a value judgement? I wasn't talking about that. I am simply talking about when humanity reaches peak exponential growth. Staying on the one planet, it has to happen a lot sooner than if we colonise other planets in the solar system and then go on to colonise other star systems as well. With galactic colonisation, the peak could easily be millions of years away. Without it, the peak has to be a lot sooner than that.
- Negitivefrags 6y ago
  And on that fated day, as the last planet in the galaxy is colonised, finally, the Tesla bears will be vindicated.

by konjin 6y ago

skissane 6y ago

> > ANYONE who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite universe is either a madman or an economist Of course it is true that in a finite universe, exponential growth can only continue for a finite amount of time. But that time could easily be far longer than you or I will live to see. We could be centuries, millennia, maybe even millions of years, away from the peak. The peak of human civilisation might be the point at which every inhabitable (or feasibly terraformable) planet in the galaxy has been colonised. (That assumes that intergalactic travel will never be feasible – an assumption which is probably true, but we can't be certain about it.) Peak galactic colonisation could easily be several million years hence–if we ever get there. Of course, we could quite easily annihilate ourselves a whole lot sooner than that, or interstellar colonisation could turn out to be permanently technologically or economically infeasible, or a bunch of other possibilities. But that's the thing, nobody knows where the peak is, worst case scenario is we could be living in it right now, best case scenario is it could be millions of years into the future, and lots of possibilities in between those two extremes.

nicoburns 6y ago
What makes you see the interplanetary scenario as bettet than the stay-on-earth scenario?
- drdeca 6y ago
  More lives that are worth living, presumably. Also, aesthetic. Also, reduced chance of extinction (before each given point in time).
- skissane 6y ago
  Better? As in a value judgement? I wasn't talking about that. I am simply talking about when humanity reaches peak exponential growth. Staying on the one planet, it has to happen a lot sooner than if we colonise other planets in the solar system and then go on to colonise other star systems as well. With galactic colonisation, the peak could easily be millions of years away. Without it, the peak has to be a lot sooner than that.
Negitivefrags 6y ago
And on that fated day, as the last planet in the galaxy is colonised, finally, the Tesla bears will be vindicated.