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US defence planners: "Attacking with all nukes as soon as we get a warning of an enemy launch is the only rational way to use these weapons" US missileers: "I'
by Trombone12 6y ago
US defence planners: "Attacking with all nukes as soon as we get a warning of an enemy launch is the only rational way to use these weapons"
US missileers: "I'ma wait a bit to see if maybe it's just Joyce that forgot to update the spreadsheet today before destroying the world"
- littlestymaar 6y agoFortunately this sort of common sense was shared by Russian soldiers too: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...
- vbezhenar 6y agoThere are rumours about automatic Russian system Dead Hand which is supposed to launch hidden nuclear missiles automatically if everything is lost. It’s horrifying to think about bugs in that system.
- sterlind 6y agoFrom what we know, supposedly Dead Hand is usually switched off except in times of crisis, and it has humans in the loop that turn the launch keys, along with repeated attempts to contact the Kremlin. In my mind it makes things safer because there's less pressure to launch a counterattack before any missiles actually hit - revenge will be had.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 6y agoWhich also shows the danger of escalation: If the other side is on high alert because there's an ongoing crisis, the risk of civilization-ending mistakes are much higher.
- Trombone12 6y agoWhile in the US, there are people furiously arguing for having ICMBs in silos that you have to launch as soon as you have a warning because if the nukes are coming for the silos the nukes will be "wasted". But this fact that the silos will be targeted and destroyed is actually a feature because it means it's North Dakota that gets to become a wasteland and that's not really a bit of the US you care about, or so the reasoning goes. The nuclear sponge they call it (the ICBMs silos needing to be targeted by enemy nukes, not North Dakota proper).
- ethbr0 6y agoThis line of reasoning (which is absolutely logical) is why hard target capability for nuclear weapons has a lot of dramatic consequences. If your silos can largely survive an enemy missile, and retain the ability to launch, you can wait for more information to come in. If you silos are expected to be wiped out, say, because the US re-fused their warheads [0] to increase the probability of a silo kill, then it's use-it-or-lose-it with a 15 minute decision time. [0] https://thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-is-undermining-strategic-stability-the-burst-height-compensating-super-fuze/ https://thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-moderni...
- iso947 6y agoNuclear subs on the other hand will continue to exist and can launch. Why you’d want to us another matter - so your country has just been turned to glass. Why bother retaliations, it’s not going to get your country back, it’s just going to make it worse for any of your citizens that survived.
- Animats 6y agoYes. There's a lot to be said for that. The USSR's later leadership didn't want to give the Premier the authority to start WWIII. That authority belonged to the Politburo, and, having gotten rid of Stalin, those who had power after him didn't want that much power in one person again. Hence the Dead Hand system. The Premier could activate that in an emergency. All it really did was, if Moscow was destroyed, and the Premier's bunker wasn't communicating, and the General Staff bunker wasn't communicating, was start a timer of several hours. If nobody in authority checked in during that time, it released the launch codes to regional commanders, who could then decide on their own what to do. So a lot of people could stop a retaliatory strike, and no one person could start it. The USAF's SAC had the actual info needed to launch missiles in the hands of SAC commanders, a much weaker system. While General Power was head of SAC, the arming codes for the missiles themselves were set to all zeros. This was not known by the civilians supposedly overseeing the US military.
- pampa 6y agoIt is probably airgapped, running on vacuum tubes and sprayed with DEET as part of regular maintanance.
- Fnoord 6y agoCool, now I figured where Dune 2's Death Hand [1] got its inspiration from. [1] https://dune.fandom.com/wiki/Death_Hand https://dune.fandom.com/wiki/Death_Hand
- jvm_ 6y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letters_of_last_resort https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letters_of_last_resort I want to read one of these...
- Wonnk13 6y agomust be a hefty paper shredder on those subs given the revolving door at 10 Downing last few years...
- jmnicolas 6y agoIt's not rumors, I saw it from official sources a few months ago that they upgraded it to version 2.0 I don't remember much, just that there need a lot of unresponsive sites before the dead hand would be activated (don't quote me, but the Kremlin, submarines, satellites and a few bases stations should all be unresponsive for it to trigger).
- lldbg 6y agoI've thought a lot about this and I am pretty sure this is propaganda to further the Mutually Assured Destruction doctrine, and that no nation would launch nukes except when directed by the highest authority. There would be no difference in efficiency of MAD, since it's all about what the adversary thinks. I am sure people smarter than me have gamed this out and evaluated the risks of launch under false premise vs risk of non-effective deterrant.
- acqq 6y agoIt’s much worse. You should read the book “The Doomsday Machine; Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner.”
- joshxyz 6y agoFunny how every once in a while a great fraction of our lives is saved by some individual's second thoughts LOL
- Gustomaximus 6y agoTheres a buch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls And seems to one missing where there was a test message sent as a real one to a US commander. And likely more than here we'll never hear of.
- galacticaactual 6y agoThere's a great 1995 movie called Crimson Tide which explores this further.