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> Over then next 5 years, highly unlikely. That's a bold statement, given that within the last 3 years, Bitcoin dropped 80% from about the current price, only

by bhaak 6y ago

> Over then next 5 years, highly unlikely. That's a bold statement, given that within the last 3 years, Bitcoin dropped 80% from about the current price, only to recover in the last year. You also completely ignore that Bitcoin might be overtaken by another competitor in this area. Altavista and Myspace didn't win either.

heurist 6y ago
4 years ago Bitcoin was $800. The low in the period between the last high and now was around $3.5k.
alwillis 6y ago
You also completely ignore that Bitcoin might be overtaken by another competitor in this area. Altavista and Myspace didn't win either. Think about it… it's highly unlikely that something else could achieve the network effects, mindshare, hashing power and all of the rest of bitcoin's attributes right now. In the early days, when bitcoin barely had any value at all, it would have been possible. But having gone from $0 to $350+ billion in market cap, it's too late. Quoting Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling): "Bitcoin is a non-sovereign, hard-capped supply, global, immutable, decentralized digital store of value. It’s an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal policy irresponsibility from central banks and governments globally." This explains why Bitcoin won't be overtaken.
- bhaak 6y ago
  Look at the history of currencies. The British pound sterling, the French franc, the Dutch guilder, they all were reserve currencies but they got overtaken. Usually not because their inherent values changed but because the environment changed and another, more suitable currency emerged. That's exactly the narrative that people push about Bitcoin's advantages over the US dollar. But because things happen a lot faster in crypto than they do in traditional finance, I wouldn't bet on "Bitcoin can't ever be overtaken".
jerrymiller 6y ago
> That's a bold statement Is it though? If you bought BTC at any given time during 2009-2015, you are in the green 5 years after. Pretty good evidence of unlikeliness to me. Also, the parent took 5 year period (and not 3) on purpose -- it's exactly 1 year longer than the halving period.

by bhaak 6y ago

heurist 6y ago

4 years ago Bitcoin was $800. The low in the period between the last high and now was around $3.5k.

alwillis 6y ago

You also completely ignore that Bitcoin might be overtaken by another competitor in this area. Altavista and Myspace didn't win either. Think about it… it's highly unlikely that something else could achieve the network effects, mindshare, hashing power and all of the rest of bitcoin's attributes right now. In the early days, when bitcoin barely had any value at all, it would have been possible. But having gone from $0 to $350+ billion in market cap, it's too late. Quoting Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling): "Bitcoin is a non-sovereign, hard-capped supply, global, immutable, decentralized digital store of value. It’s an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal policy irresponsibility from central banks and governments globally." This explains why Bitcoin won't be overtaken.

bhaak 6y ago
Look at the history of currencies. The British pound sterling, the French franc, the Dutch guilder, they all were reserve currencies but they got overtaken. Usually not because their inherent values changed but because the environment changed and another, more suitable currency emerged. That's exactly the narrative that people push about Bitcoin's advantages over the US dollar. But because things happen a lot faster in crypto than they do in traditional finance, I wouldn't bet on "Bitcoin can't ever be overtaken".

jerrymiller 6y ago

> That's a bold statement Is it though? If you bought BTC at any given time during 2009-2015, you are in the green 5 years after. Pretty good evidence of unlikeliness to me. Also, the parent took 5 year period (and not 3) on purpose -- it's exactly 1 year longer than the halving period.