4 ms·

Over the next 6 months, quite possibly. Over then next 5 years, highly unlikely. If your investing horizon is 6 months, Bitcoin is certainly not for you.

bluedevil2k 6y ago
> Over the next 5 years, highly unlikely This is the problem with the Bitcoin enthusiasts - they think they can predict the future price with near certainty. You don’t think that rosy picture of BTC is held by thousands of others and already baked into the share price? “Highly unlikely” only describes Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value. If your investing horizon is any amount of time, Bitcoin is not for you. Bitcoin is not an investment, it’s a pure speculation. As another comment perfectly summed it up, lottery tickets are not an investment.
- ur-whale 6y ago
  As relevant then as it is now ... apologies for re-posting this, it's just not possible for me not to do so: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg
  - bluedevil2k 6y ago
    Ah yes, using past performance to predict future returns. They only warn against doing that in every investment prospectus ever.
    - ur-whale 6y ago
      >They only warn against doing that in every investment prospectus ever. Right before they show you 20 pages of past performance graphs. I wonder why they would exert themselves in such a fashion after the govt-mandated CYA disclaimer Also: I think you've missed the point of the video.
- trident1000 6y ago
  A change in stock to flow is not "priced in". And gold is also a speculation, it still works/worked. Social value networks are quite sticky and tend to get stronger over time.
  - bluedevil2k 6y ago
    Gold didn’t work! As I stated in another comment, gold is way down compared to its historical high in the 80’s (when adjusted for inflation).
    - trident1000 6y ago
      Its also been around for 3000 years and is far past its price discovery phase. Aside from that you dont hold gold in perpetuity, its for certain several year stretches and certain decades. I hold none just because I think btc challenges it (which is also the view of JP Morgan's latest opinion so in decent company). Second comment here: Long cyclical runs can be timed. For instance golds decade long rip prior to the decline was due to etf introductions. And no I dont think you do “got it”. You dont hold anything in existence forever. If youre not comfortable making shifts every few years (or whatever) and having to actually do some thinking from time to time then investing isnt for you.
      - bluedevil2k 6y ago
        > you dont hold gold in perpetuity, its for certain several year stretches and certain decades So you only hold it when you’re trying to time the market? Got it.
bhaak 6y ago
> Over then next 5 years, highly unlikely. That's a bold statement, given that within the last 3 years, Bitcoin dropped 80% from about the current price, only to recover in the last year. You also completely ignore that Bitcoin might be overtaken by another competitor in this area. Altavista and Myspace didn't win either.
- heurist 6y ago
  4 years ago Bitcoin was $800. The low in the period between the last high and now was around $3.5k.
- alwillis 6y ago
  You also completely ignore that Bitcoin might be overtaken by another competitor in this area. Altavista and Myspace didn't win either. Think about it… it's highly unlikely that something else could achieve the network effects, mindshare, hashing power and all of the rest of bitcoin's attributes right now. In the early days, when bitcoin barely had any value at all, it would have been possible. But having gone from $0 to $350+ billion in market cap, it's too late. Quoting Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling): "Bitcoin is a non-sovereign, hard-capped supply, global, immutable, decentralized digital store of value. It’s an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal policy irresponsibility from central banks and governments globally." This explains why Bitcoin won't be overtaken.
  - bhaak 6y ago
    Look at the history of currencies. The British pound sterling, the French franc, the Dutch guilder, they all were reserve currencies but they got overtaken. Usually not because their inherent values changed but because the environment changed and another, more suitable currency emerged. That's exactly the narrative that people push about Bitcoin's advantages over the US dollar. But because things happen a lot faster in crypto than they do in traditional finance, I wouldn't bet on "Bitcoin can't ever be overtaken".
- jerrymiller 6y ago
  > That's a bold statement Is it though? If you bought BTC at any given time during 2009-2015, you are in the green 5 years after. Pretty good evidence of unlikeliness to me. Also, the parent took 5 year period (and not 3) on purpose -- it's exactly 1 year longer than the halving period.

bluedevil2k 6y ago

> Over the next 5 years, highly unlikely This is the problem with the Bitcoin enthusiasts - they think they can predict the future price with near certainty. You don’t think that rosy picture of BTC is held by thousands of others and already baked into the share price? “Highly unlikely” only describes Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value. If your investing horizon is any amount of time, Bitcoin is not for you. Bitcoin is not an investment, it’s a pure speculation. As another comment perfectly summed it up, lottery tickets are not an investment.

ur-whale 6y ago
As relevant then as it is now ... apologies for re-posting this, it's just not possible for me not to do so: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg
- bluedevil2k 6y ago
  Ah yes, using past performance to predict future returns. They only warn against doing that in every investment prospectus ever.
  - ur-whale 6y ago
    >They only warn against doing that in every investment prospectus ever. Right before they show you 20 pages of past performance graphs. I wonder why they would exert themselves in such a fashion after the govt-mandated CYA disclaimer Also: I think you've missed the point of the video.
trident1000 6y ago
A change in stock to flow is not "priced in". And gold is also a speculation, it still works/worked. Social value networks are quite sticky and tend to get stronger over time.
- bluedevil2k 6y ago
  Gold didn’t work! As I stated in another comment, gold is way down compared to its historical high in the 80’s (when adjusted for inflation).
  - trident1000 6y ago
    Its also been around for 3000 years and is far past its price discovery phase. Aside from that you dont hold gold in perpetuity, its for certain several year stretches and certain decades. I hold none just because I think btc challenges it (which is also the view of JP Morgan's latest opinion so in decent company). Second comment here: Long cyclical runs can be timed. For instance golds decade long rip prior to the decline was due to etf introductions. And no I dont think you do “got it”. You dont hold anything in existence forever. If youre not comfortable making shifts every few years (or whatever) and having to actually do some thinking from time to time then investing isnt for you.
    - bluedevil2k 6y ago
      > you dont hold gold in perpetuity, its for certain several year stretches and certain decades So you only hold it when you’re trying to time the market? Got it.

bhaak 6y ago

> Over then next 5 years, highly unlikely. That's a bold statement, given that within the last 3 years, Bitcoin dropped 80% from about the current price, only to recover in the last year. You also completely ignore that Bitcoin might be overtaken by another competitor in this area. Altavista and Myspace didn't win either.

heurist 6y ago
4 years ago Bitcoin was $800. The low in the period between the last high and now was around $3.5k.
alwillis 6y ago
You also completely ignore that Bitcoin might be overtaken by another competitor in this area. Altavista and Myspace didn't win either. Think about it… it's highly unlikely that something else could achieve the network effects, mindshare, hashing power and all of the rest of bitcoin's attributes right now. In the early days, when bitcoin barely had any value at all, it would have been possible. But having gone from $0 to $350+ billion in market cap, it's too late. Quoting Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling): "Bitcoin is a non-sovereign, hard-capped supply, global, immutable, decentralized digital store of value. It’s an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal policy irresponsibility from central banks and governments globally." This explains why Bitcoin won't be overtaken.
- bhaak 6y ago
  Look at the history of currencies. The British pound sterling, the French franc, the Dutch guilder, they all were reserve currencies but they got overtaken. Usually not because their inherent values changed but because the environment changed and another, more suitable currency emerged. That's exactly the narrative that people push about Bitcoin's advantages over the US dollar. But because things happen a lot faster in crypto than they do in traditional finance, I wouldn't bet on "Bitcoin can't ever be overtaken".
jerrymiller 6y ago
> That's a bold statement Is it though? If you bought BTC at any given time during 2009-2015, you are in the green 5 years after. Pretty good evidence of unlikeliness to me. Also, the parent took 5 year period (and not 3) on purpose -- it's exactly 1 year longer than the halving period.