4 ms·

"I don’t think you could’ve gotten things much faster than this. " ??? It could have been done 5 months ago, by 5 different manufacturers. We could have had

by jariel 6y ago

"I don’t think you could’ve gotten things much faster than this. " ??? It could have been done 5 months ago, by 5 different manufacturers. We could have had 50M doses in Oct, the rest by January. Why didn't Pfizer start ramping up? Because of the risk involved with an unproven candidate. That's literally in the article. It's 'financially crazy' for them to invest billions ramping up on an unproven vaccine. But only 'crazy' for them, not for us. This speaks to the dysfunction of markets in crisis situations. And why are we entrusting the manufacture of this essential IP to only one company? Pfizer? Because they paid for it? 'We' can 'pay for it' as well. And we can pay a lot more. If the government established royalty rates for a vaccine, thereby ensuring Pfizer gets a cut if the vaccine is a winner, and allows any manufacturer meeting regs to manufacture it, you'd 10x production. If the government basically 'pre-paid' or provided guaranteed credit for any manufacturer (up to standard) for any 'early candidate' vaccine, then not only would 10 manufacturers be involved - not just one - but they would have started 5 months ago. It would have been 'insanely' more expensive to do it this way, probably costing 10x as much. ... but it's actually not 'insane' is my point, it's extremely rational for us to put $200B on the table to accelerate this by 5 months. It's a bargain. It's a win-win-win - Pfizer frankly makes just as much profit (royalties have no underlying unit cost), manufacturers make some, Americans are safer and the economy starts earlier. We handled it 'poorly' because we didn't manage the situation, put in the right regs, or create the right incentives.

kubanczyk 6y ago
The current systems support elaborate ways for people to keep other people in check. These systems suck at fighting viruses (or anything else - except other people).
selimthegrim 6y ago
You think minorities are more or less likely to trust a rushed out vaccine?
- jariel 6y ago
  ??? What does this have to do with 'minorities' (If you are referring to the FDA requirement, it's not about public trust so much as literally a medical requirement to include people of different ethnic groups to measure potential differing response, which is normal in such trials) ??? And what are you talking about 'rushed'. I'm not talking about changing the nature or timeline of the trial. I'm talking about ramping up production before the vaccine is proven to be safe and working, because the opportunity cost of 'COVID shutdowns' are 1000x greater than the lost opportunity cost of wasted spending on manufacturing vaccines that work. Again: we should have been mass producing the potential 'good candidate' vaccines months ago. It doesn't matter if some of the failed to pass muster, it would have been well worth any potential wasted money on making vaccines that we can't use.

by jariel 6y ago

kubanczyk 6y ago

The current systems support elaborate ways for people to keep other people in check. These systems suck at fighting viruses (or anything else - except other people).

selimthegrim 6y ago

You think minorities are more or less likely to trust a rushed out vaccine?

jariel 6y ago
??? What does this have to do with 'minorities' (If you are referring to the FDA requirement, it's not about public trust so much as literally a medical requirement to include people of different ethnic groups to measure potential differing response, which is normal in such trials) ??? And what are you talking about 'rushed'. I'm not talking about changing the nature or timeline of the trial. I'm talking about ramping up production before the vaccine is proven to be safe and working, because the opportunity cost of 'COVID shutdowns' are 1000x greater than the lost opportunity cost of wasted spending on manufacturing vaccines that work. Again: we should have been mass producing the potential 'good candidate' vaccines months ago. It doesn't matter if some of the failed to pass muster, it would have been well worth any potential wasted money on making vaccines that we can't use.