4 ms·

And interestingly in many places there were excess deaths in the first wave, but not the second. So it is a big question just how many more would have died.

• IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
  Even more interestingly, this is bullshit. (Unless you mean countries like New Zealand where the second wave just isn't happening) There is a lag between cases and death, and death and the publication of cumulative reports on all-cause mortality. If you happened to have read anything on the topic during the first wave, you'd know as much. Because it was repeated ad nauseam, until it became too ridiculous for even the most dedicated to keep on insisting that there were no excess deaths.
  • jariel 6y ago
    The case fatality rate was considerably lower in the second wave in almost all cases, and the total number of deaths generally lower as well. The 'lag' is accounted for in that most 'second wave' places have past the peak over their waves. Deaths were 'higher' in the second wave in places that had a small first wave, like Austria. But for places that had a 'real' first wave, the second wave was generally milder in terms of overall deaths, and much milder in terms of CFR. We can't ignore the real risk of 'waves' but it's also important not to deny the nuanced reality of them. In particular, the 'second wave' had many more younger people, probably accounting for the lower case fatality rate.
• rimliu 6y ago
  We had few COVID deaths in the first wave and no excess deaths. Now we have lots of cases ~3000 daily, some 20-30 daily deaths but excess mortality is waaaay higher than COVID deaths. Most can ve explained by reduced accessibility to the medical services because of COVID precautions and general fear in public. Only now we start to feel pressure on the healthcare system caused directly by COVID cases.