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This data shows undocumented immigrants are less likely to get arrested, saying they're less likely to commit crimes is a speculative inference. If we're being

This data shows undocumented immigrants are less likely to get arrested, saying they're less likely to commit crimes is a speculative inference. If we're being consistent we would have to assume that any group with a high arrest rate must be a group that commits many crimes, which is not something the type of people who use the phrase "undocumented immigrants" are likely to accept as valid. In general being in a country without valid papers gives one a strong incentive to avoid getting arrested.

627467 6y ago
avoiding commiting crimes seems to help avoiding getting arrested.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
Consultant32452 6y ago
The other flaw is that undocumented immigrants who get caught committing crimes get deported while citizens stay and commit more crimes.
est31 6y ago
Also, most crimes are committed against your peers. If the victim is another undocumented immigrant, they are probably less likely to call the police on you in the first place.
- _iyig 6y ago
  Indeed, this effect has been studied and documented: https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/10306/silence-of-the-innocents-illegal-immigrants-underreporting-of-crime-and-their-victimization https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/10306/silence-of-the-inn... Per the study, crime among an illegal immigrant population fell post-amnesty in repose to increased crime reporting. Conversely, this implies that when members of a community report crime less often as a result of their immigration status - which the study finds to be the case - crime in those communities is higher than it would be otherwise.
29athrowaway 6y ago
In some cities/counties/states, police is not authorized to ask questions about immigration status. I do not mention this because I am against this measure (I am not), but because it makes this survey impossible to conduct accurately.
CraigJPerry 6y ago
>> we would have to assume that any group with a high arrest rate must be a group that commits many crimes That doesn’t hold - there could be more police near a group of people who commit the same number of crimes but because there are more police resources, there would be more arrests. There are lots of reasons this doesn’t hold. >> saying they're less likely to commit crimes is a speculative inference It is also undisputed though. We’ve always known illegal immigrants avoid making the kind of trouble that risks run ins with the law (i.e. there are far fewer “safe” crimes for them to commit) because the penalties are deportation.
- TheOperator 6y ago
  >there could be more police near a group of people who commit the same number of crimes but because there are more police resources, there would be more arrests. There are indeed many factors which would cause the arrest rate to not track the crime rate. Which is why treating the arrest rate as being equivalent to the crime rate is specious.
  - CraigJPerry 6y ago
    >> Which is why treating the arrest rate as being equivalent to the crime rate is specious For genpop, yes, for the specific group of illegal immigrants, no - that subset of the population has far higher penalties and penalties influence behaviour.
jimz 6y ago
I think it's correct to unlink likelihood of arrest with crimes committed, and plenty of studies have shown biases in that aspect as well as the effects of coercive plea bargaining that inflate crime numbers beyond actual crimes that even happen, in addition to conviction rates of those that are arrested. However, it makes little sense to say that somehow merely having a strong incentive for avoiding arrest means that one is actually able to consistently avoid arrest. In the study, which deals with violent felonies in Texas, arguably every person who is a suspect would have just as much incentive to avoid arrest, since immigration status is not a datapoint that is collected prior to arrest and one's ability to avoid arrest is also dependent on the police's abilities and the circumstances of each case, and not entirely down to the individual ability or incentive to avoid arrest. Furthermore, since immigration consequences come after the term is served if convicted, and violent felonies tend to carry terms of incarceration that are hefty and does not differ on account of immigration status, I don't think it's really all that relevant to consider incentives in avoiding arrest as a meaningful parameter to weigh the data in either direction. I think what's more likely is that a) because of the harsh collateral consequences which includes all of the existing collateral consequences of a conviction plus removal, in communities with large numbers of immigrants without valid status, members of the community may be less likely to call the police to report crimes to begin with. The undocumented or mixed-status community's hesitation to call the police is pretty well-documented, although that is unlikely to explain the entire difference documented here; or b) there's a self-selection bias where many of those prone to commit violent felonies may not find it worthwhile to go through the trouble of crossing and attempting to establish themselves under the radar here only to get caught up in a system that's punitive and would lead to removal regardless, considering that migrants seldom move here for reasons other than work opportunities anyway. But again, because of how byzantine our legal system is and how even more kafkaesque our immigration system is, it's unlikely that those without law degrees who specialize in these areas truly have anything close to full knowledge of what the consequences truly look at, so I don't think that adequately explain the difference either. Perhaps more studies on those aspects should be conducted, although this study is more or less in line with thinktank and advocacy group-conducted research from the likes of Cato and the ACLU, whose ideologically leanings are not exactly overlapping on most issues.

627467 6y ago

avoiding commiting crimes seems to help avoiding getting arrested.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

Consultant32452 6y ago

The other flaw is that undocumented immigrants who get caught committing crimes get deported while citizens stay and commit more crimes.

est31 6y ago

Also, most crimes are committed against your peers. If the victim is another undocumented immigrant, they are probably less likely to call the police on you in the first place.

_iyig 6y ago
Indeed, this effect has been studied and documented: https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/10306/silence-of-the-innocents-illegal-immigrants-underreporting-of-crime-and-their-victimization https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/10306/silence-of-the-inn... Per the study, crime among an illegal immigrant population fell post-amnesty in repose to increased crime reporting. Conversely, this implies that when members of a community report crime less often as a result of their immigration status - which the study finds to be the case - crime in those communities is higher than it would be otherwise.

29athrowaway 6y ago

In some cities/counties/states, police is not authorized to ask questions about immigration status. I do not mention this because I am against this measure (I am not), but because it makes this survey impossible to conduct accurately.

CraigJPerry 6y ago

>> we would have to assume that any group with a high arrest rate must be a group that commits many crimes That doesn’t hold - there could be more police near a group of people who commit the same number of crimes but because there are more police resources, there would be more arrests. There are lots of reasons this doesn’t hold. >> saying they're less likely to commit crimes is a speculative inference It is also undisputed though. We’ve always known illegal immigrants avoid making the kind of trouble that risks run ins with the law (i.e. there are far fewer “safe” crimes for them to commit) because the penalties are deportation.

TheOperator 6y ago
>there could be more police near a group of people who commit the same number of crimes but because there are more police resources, there would be more arrests. There are indeed many factors which would cause the arrest rate to not track the crime rate. Which is why treating the arrest rate as being equivalent to the crime rate is specious.
- CraigJPerry 6y ago
  >> Which is why treating the arrest rate as being equivalent to the crime rate is specious For genpop, yes, for the specific group of illegal immigrants, no - that subset of the population has far higher penalties and penalties influence behaviour.

jimz 6y ago

I think it's correct to unlink likelihood of arrest with crimes committed, and plenty of studies have shown biases in that aspect as well as the effects of coercive plea bargaining that inflate crime numbers beyond actual crimes that even happen, in addition to conviction rates of those that are arrested. However, it makes little sense to say that somehow merely having a strong incentive for avoiding arrest means that one is actually able to consistently avoid arrest. In the study, which deals with violent felonies in Texas, arguably every person who is a suspect would have just as much incentive to avoid arrest, since immigration status is not a datapoint that is collected prior to arrest and one's ability to avoid arrest is also dependent on the police's abilities and the circumstances of each case, and not entirely down to the individual ability or incentive to avoid arrest. Furthermore, since immigration consequences come after the term is served if convicted, and violent felonies tend to carry terms of incarceration that are hefty and does not differ on account of immigration status, I don't think it's really all that relevant to consider incentives in avoiding arrest as a meaningful parameter to weigh the data in either direction. I think what's more likely is that a) because of the harsh collateral consequences which includes all of the existing collateral consequences of a conviction plus removal, in communities with large numbers of immigrants without valid status, members of the community may be less likely to call the police to report crimes to begin with. The undocumented or mixed-status community's hesitation to call the police is pretty well-documented, although that is unlikely to explain the entire difference documented here; or b) there's a self-selection bias where many of those prone to commit violent felonies may not find it worthwhile to go through the trouble of crossing and attempting to establish themselves under the radar here only to get caught up in a system that's punitive and would lead to removal regardless, considering that migrants seldom move here for reasons other than work opportunities anyway. But again, because of how byzantine our legal system is and how even more kafkaesque our immigration system is, it's unlikely that those without law degrees who specialize in these areas truly have anything close to full knowledge of what the consequences truly look at, so I don't think that adequately explain the difference either. Perhaps more studies on those aspects should be conducted, although this study is more or less in line with thinktank and advocacy group-conducted research from the likes of Cato and the ACLU, whose ideologically leanings are not exactly overlapping on most issues.