3 ms·

Current death rate is computed: Dead people / Recovered people and that is around 3 percent, down from 5 to 7 percent a few months ago. Infections / deaths is

Current death rate is computed: Dead people / Recovered people and that is around 3 percent, down from 5 to 7 percent a few months ago. Infections / deaths is not accurate as cases in progress are added to those with definitive outcomes. That can also be seen as a best case, given nobody currently infected does not die. A worst case can be seen assuming everyone infected will die. But if we want to know the percentage of people who get sick and die, we have to compute that percentage with the people who got sick and did not die and their case ran its course to a definitive outcome. Infections lead to outcomes. Outcomes are where the dead vs not dead become known. Everyone infected will eventually arrive at an outcome.

anoncake 6y ago
I have no idea what you are trying to say, sorry.
- ddingus 6y ago
  It is simple: Divide dead people by recovered people to assess true risk of death from COVID. Dividing dead people by infected people represents a best case, overly optimistic risk due to the fact that cases that ran their full course to a definitive outcome are mixed together with cases in progress. Doing that biases the risk perception down below actual risk and can be dangerous. I know one person who died, who did not have to, and they died because they made choices after having evaluated risk incorrectly.
  - anoncake 6y ago
    I'm sure the epidemiologists who estimate the IFR at ~0.5% are aware of the fundamentals of their field.
    - ddingus 6y ago
      As am I, but that does not make the risk assessment I put above wrong. They have their reasons for that metric. That too doesn't make (dead/recovered) wrong. There are dead people in my life, with whom I had this discussion. "Calculated risk" = optimistic. The IFR combines futures with actual and does not represent an outcome based risk assessment. Nature however, will definitely take you, or any of us, to an outcome, should we become infected.

anoncake 6y ago

I have no idea what you are trying to say, sorry.

ddingus 6y ago
It is simple: Divide dead people by recovered people to assess true risk of death from COVID. Dividing dead people by infected people represents a best case, overly optimistic risk due to the fact that cases that ran their full course to a definitive outcome are mixed together with cases in progress. Doing that biases the risk perception down below actual risk and can be dangerous. I know one person who died, who did not have to, and they died because they made choices after having evaluated risk incorrectly.
- anoncake 6y ago
  I'm sure the epidemiologists who estimate the IFR at ~0.5% are aware of the fundamentals of their field.
  - ddingus 6y ago
    As am I, but that does not make the risk assessment I put above wrong. They have their reasons for that metric. That too doesn't make (dead/recovered) wrong. There are dead people in my life, with whom I had this discussion. "Calculated risk" = optimistic. The IFR combines futures with actual and does not represent an outcome based risk assessment. Nature however, will definitely take you, or any of us, to an outcome, should we become infected.