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Perhaps things will come roaring back in the USA quickly – the linked article is very American-centric. But considering that some European governments have been

Perhaps things will come roaring back in the USA quickly – the linked article is very American-centric. But considering that some European governments have been hinting that COVID restrictions will last throughout 2021, since it will take all of next year to vaccinate a large enough portion of the population to stem infections, are there any grounds for claiming a worldwide economic recovery before 2022?

tonyedgecombe 6y ago
I suspect they will only need to vaccinate the most vulnerable before things start opening up again. Once hospitalisation rates fall restrictions will get lifted.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  Vaccinating just the vulnerable isn't enough for some countries, they want full herd immunity. For example, the Polish minister of health gave a press conference last week in which he said that restrictions cannot be lifted until half of the country's population has been vaccinated, and he expects that to take all of 2021. I suspect that he was only saying out loud what other EU countries have been tacitly planning for.
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    Once hospitalisation rates fall the press will be all over them if they don't open up. Most of Western Europe has been struggling to get people to comply as it is.
    - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
      Last spring I might have agreed, but mass resistance to restrictions never materialized. Protests have never attracted more than a fringe of conspiracy theorists etc. As for the press, the media in Poland is nearly wholly controlled by the government, and so will not necessarily challenge the minister of health. Then there are countries like Finland where politics is consensus-based, and so is the press, so once all parties have broadly agreed on restrictions, it is unseemly to raise objections. Apparently politicians in many EU countries have decided that they are politically vulnerable if they open up, not if they simply keep the status quo of restrictions going. As for "struggling to get people to comply", actually EU countries have been quite effective in ensuring that restaurants and theatres ordered to close stay closed. There are some countries elsewhere on earth where business owners have been able to bribe the authorities to look the other way, but that doesn't happen in EU countries.
nicbou 6y ago
Germany plans to have 7.5 million doses by April, and each person needs two. That means we'll only get 10% of the population vaccinated. I suspect many countries will have it even worse. This article is wildly optimistic.

tonyedgecombe 6y ago

I suspect they will only need to vaccinate the most vulnerable before things start opening up again. Once hospitalisation rates fall restrictions will get lifted.

Mediterraneo10 6y ago
Vaccinating just the vulnerable isn't enough for some countries, they want full herd immunity. For example, the Polish minister of health gave a press conference last week in which he said that restrictions cannot be lifted until half of the country's population has been vaccinated, and he expects that to take all of 2021. I suspect that he was only saying out loud what other EU countries have been tacitly planning for.
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  Once hospitalisation rates fall the press will be all over them if they don't open up. Most of Western Europe has been struggling to get people to comply as it is.
  - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
    Last spring I might have agreed, but mass resistance to restrictions never materialized. Protests have never attracted more than a fringe of conspiracy theorists etc. As for the press, the media in Poland is nearly wholly controlled by the government, and so will not necessarily challenge the minister of health. Then there are countries like Finland where politics is consensus-based, and so is the press, so once all parties have broadly agreed on restrictions, it is unseemly to raise objections. Apparently politicians in many EU countries have decided that they are politically vulnerable if they open up, not if they simply keep the status quo of restrictions going. As for "struggling to get people to comply", actually EU countries have been quite effective in ensuring that restaurants and theatres ordered to close stay closed. There are some countries elsewhere on earth where business owners have been able to bribe the authorities to look the other way, but that doesn't happen in EU countries.

nicbou 6y ago

Germany plans to have 7.5 million doses by April, and each person needs two. That means we'll only get 10% of the population vaccinated. I suspect many countries will have it even worse. This article is wildly optimistic.