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More than a third of polled Americans see the election as illegitimate, and that includes Democrats and non-affiliated voters. [1] This doesn't mean they're ri

by gfodor 6y ago

More than a third of polled Americans see the election as illegitimate, and that includes Democrats and non-affiliated voters. [1] This doesn't mean they're right. Unfortunately, no matter how "unreasonable" you think these people are, when they exist in such numbers and feel with such confidence they've lost the ability to have fair elections, the result of suppressing, ridiculing, and marginalizing them is fairly predictable. [1] https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3685 https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3685

AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
But as I keep saying, there is simply no way to change their minds with rational argument. How is one supposed to: > [...] get out ahead of it and do everything in their power to legitimize the election for these people. When the people in question refuse to hear anything other than what they want to hear?
radley 6y ago
> More than a third of polled Americans see the election as illegitimate, and that includes Democrats and non-affiliated voters. Did you read the poll? Literally, in the first three paragraphs: - 98% of Dems think election victory is legitimate - 97% think there was no widespread voter fraud Please stop trolling HN. Take it to Parler.
- gfodor 6y ago
  Did you read the poll? > Do you believe there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, or not? > 77% R > 3% D > 35% I To feel secure that this isn't going to spill over into a conflict, we should expect to see a similarly marginal number of I's and ideally less R's (this should be a fringe belief in the Republican party, but it's not.) This question is the most extreme form of the issue, as well. (Few ought to believe widespread fraud definitely occurred, many more likely believe it’s possible strategically targeted fraud occurred, a much weaker stance but similarly dangerous.) I'm guessing you'll just assume the I's are closet Republicans. But don't blame me if you aren't willing to face reality that this skepticism is not just going to go away through coercion.
  - radley 6y ago
    No I figure independents are split. The 35% value makes me think that half of them lean liberal or progressive.
    - gfodor 6y ago
      Would you agree that Independents, regardless of their internal preference, are a good barometer of centrists vs extremists? I do. And as such, we ought to want arguably 'radical' beliefs like that there was widespread fraud to be marginal in such groups if we want to feel confident it isn't something that needs addressing to avoid conflict over it.
      - radley 6y ago
        My main criticism was claiming Dems support your position. I'm sure there are a few, but not enough to really matter. Otherwise, I see the extended "election fraud" campaign as an excuse to squeeze out more money for Trump (bad), generate emotional support for the Georgia election (good), and help a guy in Texas get a pardon (lol).
        gfodor 6y ago
        I didn't claim Dems support this position. Beyond that, claiming that "there is widespread fraud" is "my" position, when I've stated otherwise clearly, shows more bias on your part. What makes you think I think there was widespread fraud? Perhaps you're projecting: if you defend people who are being suppressed and ridiculed, this doesn't mean you agree with them. Perhaps you are only able to imagine defending people you agree with? I realize how what I wrote could be construed saying D's support the claim, especially if you presume I'm some kind of partisan hack trying to troll you. In fact, what I was emphasizing (poorly) was that the population sampled from which has one third of support includes Democrats and Independents, since I would have found one third of just Republicans believing there was widespread fraud to be somewhat surprising. I should have written "sampled from a population that includes Democrats and Independents" - I'd like to assume everything else I've written in this thread is evidence I'm not trying to trick anyone or score points. I am genuinely concerned at the level of dismissal, ridicule, and suppression of skeptics of the election, since the floor on this is a third of the country and history tells us what to expect when you leave that many feeling powerless to overcome a presumed deep injustice via speech, voting, and the legal system.
- dafoex 6y ago
  > 98% of Dems think election victory is legitimate That leaves 2% of Dems that disagree. They aren't wrong in saying their stated figure includes Democratic party voters, just misleading. > 97% think there was no widespread voter fraud Assuming this reflects all polled people and not just Democratic party voters, then yes, 3% ≠ 1/3 and they are wrong. Assuming this figure only reflects Democratic party voters, that seems to suggest that 1% of Dems believe that there was widespread fraud, but still think the victory was legitimate.
  - gfodor 6y ago
    I apologize if this was misleading, my point was to emphasize that the population involved in the "one third" proportion was not Republicans. (It's a third of Americans, not Republicans.) Thinking a third of Republicans think there was widespread election fraud would be concerning and somewhat surprising (at least to me, given "widespread fraud" is far from being in evidence) so it felt worth emphasizing that was not the population, but it in fact includes polled Democrats and Independents. In fact, it's much worse than that: a third of Americans believe it (which shows its appeal to centrists and/or the depth of Republican belief), and if you dig into the crosstabs, the number of Independents who believe it (approx 1/3rd) and Republicans who believe it (approx 3/4ths) is quite concerning. For such an extreme question ('widespread fraud') I would have expected this to be a fringe belief. The belief that would have made these numbers less surprising would have been questions such as "do you believe there is some evidence of targetted fraud" etc. Given that I'd suspect nearly 100% of Republicans believe some form of fraud occurred. If so, the entire losing party believes they were cheated to some degree. This isn't a recipe for reduced conflict from here. It means that the radical end of the party is large enough to be meaningful, and it means that large parts of the population will be less likely to condemn actions they take given the widespread shared beliefs.
- radley 6y ago
  From the poll: > a margin of error of +/- 3.1 The number of Dems you've claimed to support your position is less than the margin of error.

by gfodor 6y ago

AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago

But as I keep saying, there is simply no way to change their minds with rational argument. How is one supposed to: > [...] get out ahead of it and do everything in their power to legitimize the election for these people. When the people in question refuse to hear anything other than what they want to hear?

radley 6y ago

> More than a third of polled Americans see the election as illegitimate, and that includes Democrats and non-affiliated voters. Did you read the poll? Literally, in the first three paragraphs: - 98% of Dems think election victory is legitimate - 97% think there was no widespread voter fraud Please stop trolling HN. Take it to Parler.

gfodor 6y ago
Did you read the poll? > Do you believe there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, or not? > 77% R > 3% D > 35% I To feel secure that this isn't going to spill over into a conflict, we should expect to see a similarly marginal number of I's and ideally less R's (this should be a fringe belief in the Republican party, but it's not.) This question is the most extreme form of the issue, as well. (Few ought to believe widespread fraud definitely occurred, many more likely believe it’s possible strategically targeted fraud occurred, a much weaker stance but similarly dangerous.) I'm guessing you'll just assume the I's are closet Republicans. But don't blame me if you aren't willing to face reality that this skepticism is not just going to go away through coercion.
- radley 6y ago
  No I figure independents are split. The 35% value makes me think that half of them lean liberal or progressive.
  - gfodor 6y ago
    Would you agree that Independents, regardless of their internal preference, are a good barometer of centrists vs extremists? I do. And as such, we ought to want arguably 'radical' beliefs like that there was widespread fraud to be marginal in such groups if we want to feel confident it isn't something that needs addressing to avoid conflict over it.
    - radley 6y ago
      My main criticism was claiming Dems support your position. I'm sure there are a few, but not enough to really matter. Otherwise, I see the extended "election fraud" campaign as an excuse to squeeze out more money for Trump (bad), generate emotional support for the Georgia election (good), and help a guy in Texas get a pardon (lol).
      - gfodor 6y ago
        I didn't claim Dems support this position. Beyond that, claiming that "there is widespread fraud" is "my" position, when I've stated otherwise clearly, shows more bias on your part. What makes you think I think there was widespread fraud? Perhaps you're projecting: if you defend people who are being suppressed and ridiculed, this doesn't mean you agree with them. Perhaps you are only able to imagine defending people you agree with? I realize how what I wrote could be construed saying D's support the claim, especially if you presume I'm some kind of partisan hack trying to troll you. In fact, what I was emphasizing (poorly) was that the population sampled from which has one third of support includes Democrats and Independents, since I would have found one third of just Republicans believing there was widespread fraud to be somewhat surprising. I should have written "sampled from a population that includes Democrats and Independents" - I'd like to assume everything else I've written in this thread is evidence I'm not trying to trick anyone or score points. I am genuinely concerned at the level of dismissal, ridicule, and suppression of skeptics of the election, since the floor on this is a third of the country and history tells us what to expect when you leave that many feeling powerless to overcome a presumed deep injustice via speech, voting, and the legal system.
dafoex 6y ago
> 98% of Dems think election victory is legitimate That leaves 2% of Dems that disagree. They aren't wrong in saying their stated figure includes Democratic party voters, just misleading. > 97% think there was no widespread voter fraud Assuming this reflects all polled people and not just Democratic party voters, then yes, 3% ≠ 1/3 and they are wrong. Assuming this figure only reflects Democratic party voters, that seems to suggest that 1% of Dems believe that there was widespread fraud, but still think the victory was legitimate.
- gfodor 6y ago
  I apologize if this was misleading, my point was to emphasize that the population involved in the "one third" proportion was not Republicans. (It's a third of Americans, not Republicans.) Thinking a third of Republicans think there was widespread election fraud would be concerning and somewhat surprising (at least to me, given "widespread fraud" is far from being in evidence) so it felt worth emphasizing that was not the population, but it in fact includes polled Democrats and Independents. In fact, it's much worse than that: a third of Americans believe it (which shows its appeal to centrists and/or the depth of Republican belief), and if you dig into the crosstabs, the number of Independents who believe it (approx 1/3rd) and Republicans who believe it (approx 3/4ths) is quite concerning. For such an extreme question ('widespread fraud') I would have expected this to be a fringe belief. The belief that would have made these numbers less surprising would have been questions such as "do you believe there is some evidence of targetted fraud" etc. Given that I'd suspect nearly 100% of Republicans believe some form of fraud occurred. If so, the entire losing party believes they were cheated to some degree. This isn't a recipe for reduced conflict from here. It means that the radical end of the party is large enough to be meaningful, and it means that large parts of the population will be less likely to condemn actions they take given the widespread shared beliefs.
radley 6y ago
From the poll: > a margin of error of +/- 3.1 The number of Dems you've claimed to support your position is less than the margin of error.