4 ms·
> I wouldn't be surprised if it was a 10x difference The next sentence: > Hanlon et al. (10) estimate that those dying from COVID-19 have only about 1 y less
by rrss 6y ago
> I wouldn't be surprised if it was a 10x difference
The next sentence:
> Hanlon et al. (10) estimate that those dying from COVID-19 have only about 1 y less of remaining life on average than those at the same age in the general population, which would mean that the overstatement is not very large, around 8%.
Your own link states that healthspan is not quantifiable, so your claim that it is 3.5y doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
- breck 6y agoI saw Hanlon, and again a pretty good paper (http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/215598/1/215598.pdf http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/215598/1/215598.pdf), but far off. First, it came out in April, when CFR in the USA was 6.2%, not 1.9%. So that alone would be enough to drive YLL of fatalities down close to my number. > "used to construct a plausible scenario for the prevalence of combinations of LTCs among people who died from COVID-19 for the modelling presented here." Second, the dataset used at the time to generate their synthetic data was weak. You can see it immediately in their bar charts, where they have mostly healthy 50-69 y.o. dying in their synthetic data, skewing their YLL to the right. > Your own link states that healthspan is not quantifiable, so your claim that it is 3.5y doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I provided a link to a "conservative" description of healthspan, but in the field people are more optimistic about it. Very good questions you brought up though, thanks!