4 ms·

Children are low on the priority list because they get severe symptoms at a much, much lower rate than adults and especially older adults. And the schools are

by birken 6y ago

Children are low on the priority list because they get severe symptoms at a much, much lower rate than adults and especially older adults. And the schools are not closed right now because of the fear that younger children are going to get the virus. Schools are closed because teachers are (rightly) concerned about getting the virus, and families are (rightly) concerned that their children might pick up the virus at school and bring it home with them and infect more at-risk individuals. If the teachers and family members are vaccinated, then I think it is pretty clear the risk/benefit analysis would highly suggest sending children back to school, even if they aren't vaccinated yet. Schools in the US have already opened in many places before there is a vaccine, so I don't doubt schools are going to be opening ASAP, and that is almost certainly before most children are vaccinated.

scoopertrooper 6y ago
I'd be worried creating a viral reservoir in schools even if the adult population were completely vaccinated. It'd be an excellent environment for the virus to mutate and become endemic.
- ch4s3 6y ago
  As far as we know young children don’t spread COVID. There aren’t any confirmed cases of children under ten spreading it to other people. It’s super odd, but that’s what the evidence suggests at this point.
  - scoopertrooper 6y ago
    The latest evidence indicates that young children are about half as likely to get infected and half as likely to spread the virus. That's great, but the Covid-19 is incredibly contagious, so it can still spread like wildfire in children. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/we-now-know-how-much-children-spread-coronavirus/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/we-now-kn...
    - ch4s3 6y ago
      That article states that the risk starts to increase between 10-12 tears of age and between the ages 10 and 15 children are half as infectious as adults. I doesn't really dig into details about children under 10.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- birken 6y ago
  I'm not a virus expert, but my understanding is this type of virus is very unlikely to mutate in a way where the vaccine will not work against it, and it is going to become endemic regardless of what we do. So I don't think either of those concerns would merit not opening schools.
  - scoopertrooper 6y ago
    Covid-19 is a new disease that requires continued study before we can make definitive statements about its evolutionary possibility frontier. Having said that, we currently have extremely effective vaccines (far more effective than our flu vaccines), so we have an excellent chance of nipping this thing in the bud before it becomes endemic if we act swiftly. It'll probably be at least a year before enough vaccine is produced that low-risk groups like children become eligible, so modified education in one form or another will have to continue till that point. This doesn't mean they can't go to school, but things like pods, wearing of PPE, social distancing, and other such things will need to continue till herd immunity can be achieved through vaccination.
    - loopz 6y ago
      You'd need to vaccinate most of 7B people, and this sickness is low priority in most places due to more pressing concerns, once vulnerable groups are protected.
dehrmann 6y ago
> especially older adults Someone at the CDC disagreed with the strategy of vaccinating people in long-term care facilities first because their weaker immune systems might not have an effective response to the vaccine. I'm not even sure if vaccinating front-line heathcare workers first makes sense because they've probably been exposed already (or not; this is easily checked with antibody tests). You want to vaccinate people most likely to spread it. Who that is, I'm not sure.
- riccia 6y ago
  I think along the lines you're thinking, you would actually want to come up with an expected cost of an infection of an individual ("cost" being in a misery-illness-utility sense, not financial). This would presumably include the average expected illness severity of the person infected but also the average illness burden in others indirectly attributable to that person being infected. So you'd want to give it first to people who are very likely to become severely ill themselves, and whose infection would cause others to become severely ill, directly or indirectly (eg through disease spread or through lost resources, as if an ER doc in an understaffed area became severely ill).
- makomk 6y ago
  The trouble with vaccinating people most likely to spread it, at least as I've seen it explained, is that you have to vaccinate a lot of people in order to have an impact compared to vaccinating the most at risk groups and there's only a limited supply of vaccine and limited capacity to administer it right now. (Also, technically there's probably more evidence of it working to protect at-risk people from severe disease and death than for it stopping anyone spreading it, but that's mostly just an artifact of what's been tested so far.)
- aegis4244 6y ago
  We don't test health care workers in America. https://www.npr.org/2020/12/07/943945361/think-health-care-workers-are-tested-often-for-covid-19-think-again https://www.npr.org/2020/12/07/943945361/think-health-care-w...
  - 6y ago
iso1210 6y ago
> And the schools are not closed right now because of the fear that younger children are going to get the virus. Schools are closed because teachers are (rightly) concerned about getting the virus Schools in the UK have been open since September. Typically if there's a positive case then they isolate and typically their closest contacts isolate, if there's more than one then the entire class isolates. There's no evidence that teachers are any more likely to die from covid than many other essential workers who aren't working from home. There's no evidence that these vaccines stop spread, so there's little point in prioritising vaccination of children who - even if they did catch covid - are practically immune. Same with the majority of teachers. Makes far more sense to vaccinate older people who are at serious risk (with IFR in the 5, 10, 15% range) - then they don't need to worry about the kids bringing the virus home.
- Rebelgecko 6y ago
  >There's no evidence that teachers are any more likely to die from covid than many other essential workers who aren't working from home. What's the death rate for teachers been since September compared to other occupations like nurses? Is there "no evidence" because the evidence shows they're less likely to die, or is there no evidence because no one is bothering to keep track? >There's no evidence that these vaccines stop spread Nothing is 100%, but my understanding is that the AstraZeneca has results showing that it significantly reduces the chance that someone who has the vaccine will spread the disease
  - iso1210 6y ago
    ONS did a survey for cases in the first 6 weeks (Sep and first half Oct). Found that: 0.38 per cent of secondary and sixth form teachers tested positive during that time frame, compared to 0.23 per cent of primary teachers. Meanwhile, the "other key worker" category was shown to have a positivity rate of 0.4 per cent.

by birken 6y ago

scoopertrooper 6y ago

I'd be worried creating a viral reservoir in schools even if the adult population were completely vaccinated. It'd be an excellent environment for the virus to mutate and become endemic.

ch4s3 6y ago
As far as we know young children don’t spread COVID. There aren’t any confirmed cases of children under ten spreading it to other people. It’s super odd, but that’s what the evidence suggests at this point.
- scoopertrooper 6y ago
  The latest evidence indicates that young children are about half as likely to get infected and half as likely to spread the virus. That's great, but the Covid-19 is incredibly contagious, so it can still spread like wildfire in children. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/we-now-know-how-much-children-spread-coronavirus/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/we-now-kn...
  - ch4s3 6y ago
    That article states that the risk starts to increase between 10-12 tears of age and between the ages 10 and 15 children are half as infectious as adults. I doesn't really dig into details about children under 10.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
birken 6y ago
I'm not a virus expert, but my understanding is this type of virus is very unlikely to mutate in a way where the vaccine will not work against it, and it is going to become endemic regardless of what we do. So I don't think either of those concerns would merit not opening schools.
- scoopertrooper 6y ago
  Covid-19 is a new disease that requires continued study before we can make definitive statements about its evolutionary possibility frontier. Having said that, we currently have extremely effective vaccines (far more effective than our flu vaccines), so we have an excellent chance of nipping this thing in the bud before it becomes endemic if we act swiftly. It'll probably be at least a year before enough vaccine is produced that low-risk groups like children become eligible, so modified education in one form or another will have to continue till that point. This doesn't mean they can't go to school, but things like pods, wearing of PPE, social distancing, and other such things will need to continue till herd immunity can be achieved through vaccination.
  - loopz 6y ago
    You'd need to vaccinate most of 7B people, and this sickness is low priority in most places due to more pressing concerns, once vulnerable groups are protected.

dehrmann 6y ago

> especially older adults Someone at the CDC disagreed with the strategy of vaccinating people in long-term care facilities first because their weaker immune systems might not have an effective response to the vaccine. I'm not even sure if vaccinating front-line heathcare workers first makes sense because they've probably been exposed already (or not; this is easily checked with antibody tests). You want to vaccinate people most likely to spread it. Who that is, I'm not sure.

riccia 6y ago
I think along the lines you're thinking, you would actually want to come up with an expected cost of an infection of an individual ("cost" being in a misery-illness-utility sense, not financial). This would presumably include the average expected illness severity of the person infected but also the average illness burden in others indirectly attributable to that person being infected. So you'd want to give it first to people who are very likely to become severely ill themselves, and whose infection would cause others to become severely ill, directly or indirectly (eg through disease spread or through lost resources, as if an ER doc in an understaffed area became severely ill).
makomk 6y ago
The trouble with vaccinating people most likely to spread it, at least as I've seen it explained, is that you have to vaccinate a lot of people in order to have an impact compared to vaccinating the most at risk groups and there's only a limited supply of vaccine and limited capacity to administer it right now. (Also, technically there's probably more evidence of it working to protect at-risk people from severe disease and death than for it stopping anyone spreading it, but that's mostly just an artifact of what's been tested so far.)
aegis4244 6y ago
We don't test health care workers in America. https://www.npr.org/2020/12/07/943945361/think-health-care-workers-are-tested-often-for-covid-19-think-again https://www.npr.org/2020/12/07/943945361/think-health-care-w...
- 6y ago

iso1210 6y ago

> And the schools are not closed right now because of the fear that younger children are going to get the virus. Schools are closed because teachers are (rightly) concerned about getting the virus Schools in the UK have been open since September. Typically if there's a positive case then they isolate and typically their closest contacts isolate, if there's more than one then the entire class isolates. There's no evidence that teachers are any more likely to die from covid than many other essential workers who aren't working from home. There's no evidence that these vaccines stop spread, so there's little point in prioritising vaccination of children who - even if they did catch covid - are practically immune. Same with the majority of teachers. Makes far more sense to vaccinate older people who are at serious risk (with IFR in the 5, 10, 15% range) - then they don't need to worry about the kids bringing the virus home.

Rebelgecko 6y ago
>There's no evidence that teachers are any more likely to die from covid than many other essential workers who aren't working from home. What's the death rate for teachers been since September compared to other occupations like nurses? Is there "no evidence" because the evidence shows they're less likely to die, or is there no evidence because no one is bothering to keep track? >There's no evidence that these vaccines stop spread Nothing is 100%, but my understanding is that the AstraZeneca has results showing that it significantly reduces the chance that someone who has the vaccine will spread the disease
- iso1210 6y ago
  ONS did a survey for cases in the first 6 weeks (Sep and first half Oct). Found that: 0.38 per cent of secondary and sixth form teachers tested positive during that time frame, compared to 0.23 per cent of primary teachers. Meanwhile, the "other key worker" category was shown to have a positivity rate of 0.4 per cent.