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> All the jurisdictions I know will blow through the entire supply of existing doses allocated to them very quickly. It doesn't go on a slow distribution ramp g

by xyzzyz 6y ago

> All the jurisdictions I know will blow through the entire supply of existing doses allocated to them very quickly. It doesn't go on a slow distribution ramp gated by approval like your ridiculous source suggests. You misunderstand. "Blowing through entire supply" and being left with nothing is exactly the "slow distribution" Alex Tabarrok, a professor at GMU, talks about in the link I gave. He contrasts it with vaccinating entire population on day 1. Read it carefully. > What governs the ramp is production rates, which have been running flat-out irrespective of this decision. I consider the vaccine production regulation people to be just as incapable at cost-benefit analysis as vaccine approval people, so I assume that most production constraints are just as artificial as the approval constraints.

mlyle 6y ago
Nope. >You misunderstand. "Blowing through entire supply" and being left with nothing is exactly the "slow distribution" Alex Tabarrok, a professor at GMU, talks about in the link I gave. He contrasts it with vaccinating entire population on day 1. Read it carefully. Vs. "Now assume that the vaccine can’t roll out to everyone immediately. For the sake of this simple model let’s assume that on day one you can only vaccinate half the population. By doing so you save 1000 lives on day 1 and 2000 lives every day thereafter for the length of the pandemic. That’s the fourth panel. Now suppose we delay the vaccine rollout by one day. 2000 people die on Day 1 but you save 1000 on Day 2 and 2000 on Day 3 and every day thereafter for the length of the pandemic. How many people were killed by the delay? Compare the 4th and 5th panels. 2000 exactly as before! " This compares vaccinating 50% on day 1, and the remaining 50% on day 2, to vaccinating 50% on day 2 and the remaining 50% on day 3. But in blowing through the supply, we're comparing vaccinating 1% on day 1 and another 1% on day 7 and another 1% on day 15 to vaccinating 1% on day 7 and 1% on day 8 and 1% on day 15. Not at all the same scenario.

by xyzzyz 6y ago

mlyle 6y ago

Nope. >You misunderstand. "Blowing through entire supply" and being left with nothing is exactly the "slow distribution" Alex Tabarrok, a professor at GMU, talks about in the link I gave. He contrasts it with vaccinating entire population on day 1. Read it carefully. Vs. "Now assume that the vaccine can’t roll out to everyone immediately. For the sake of this simple model let’s assume that on day one you can only vaccinate half the population. By doing so you save 1000 lives on day 1 and 2000 lives every day thereafter for the length of the pandemic. That’s the fourth panel. Now suppose we delay the vaccine rollout by one day. 2000 people die on Day 1 but you save 1000 on Day 2 and 2000 on Day 3 and every day thereafter for the length of the pandemic. How many people were killed by the delay? Compare the 4th and 5th panels. 2000 exactly as before! " This compares vaccinating 50% on day 1, and the remaining 50% on day 2, to vaccinating 50% on day 2 and the remaining 50% on day 3. But in blowing through the supply, we're comparing vaccinating 1% on day 1 and another 1% on day 7 and another 1% on day 15 to vaccinating 1% on day 7 and 1% on day 8 and 1% on day 15. Not at all the same scenario.