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I appreciate your counter-argument. Let me address intent first, then risk. I would argue that intent might be relevant when assigning legal consequences, but

I appreciate your counter-argument. Let me address intent first, then risk. I would argue that intent might be relevant when assigning legal consequences, but not when assessing the damage caused. If I catch a case of COVID, I’m not somehow less likely to die or suffer long-term effects because the person who gave it to me didn't intend to do so. Nor can I pay my hospital bills with their good intentions. And if they engaged in reckless behavior such as attending super-spreader events or failing to wear a mask, I have to question how good their intentions were in the first place. It sounds like the drunk driver who says “But I didn’t intend to run over that pedestrian”. Maybe not, but their gross negligence allowed it to happen. Now for risk. I agree that we can’t eliminate risk from our lives entirely. But I hope that's not the litmus test for whether to take any prevention steps at all, especially if the cost of taking those steps is minimal. Take your example of getting behind the wheel of a car. It's likely that sooner or later, if I drive long enough, I'll get into some kind of accident, even if it's just someone rear-ending my car. I can't prevent this entirely, but I can mitigate the risk by getting regular maintenance on my car (i.e. new brake pads so I don't cause a fender-bender), refraining from driving drunk, keeping my auto insurance policy current so that I can pay out in the event I'm at-fault, etc. Wearing a mask is the public-health equivalent of getting new brake pads. It won't eliminate the risk of spreading COVID entirely, but that doesn't mean I'm going to throw my hands up and admit defeat. I would further argue that people are less-than-great judges of just how big a risk vector they are, because of the delay between when someone catches COVID and when they present symptoms. I've heard it can be up to two weeks, during which time that person is unknowingly exposing others. Because of this, and given the potential life-or-death consequences of catching COVID, it seems insane not to err on the side of caution.

thu2111 6y ago
Masks don't work at all so your whole premise is false, and there's a lot of lying about this unfortunately. Here's just one example: https://twitter.com/uncivengin/status/1337536854753595399/photo/1 https://twitter.com/uncivengin/status/1337536854753595399/ph... If mask mandates worked, they'd have a clear impact on incidence graphs. Many such graphs exist, none show any impact whatsoever - not even a small one. https://rationalground.com/mask-charts/ https://rationalground.com/mask-charts/ Nobody wants to throw up their hands and admit defeat. But the people who don't wear masks aren't "insane" as you put it. Rather ironically, the cliché definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over whilst expecting different results, isn't it? Mask mandates have been implemented everywhere and there are no results to show for it, which makes continuing them the insane act. It's certainly not immoral or unethical for people to not wear a mask, any more than it is for someone not to wear a cross around their neck.
- toomanyrichies 6y ago
  The tweet you linked to says "The masked counties had increases in cases after the mandate and used the high point as the reference for the decrease." If you're implying that this means masks have no effect, you should know that correlation does not equal causation. There are multiple interpretations for the data in the tweet, one of which is that local authorities (correctly) anticipated a spike in cases based on conditions and behavior in their community, and responded with a mask mandate, which took a little less than 2 weeks to have a noticeable impact. The graph in your linked tweet shows that a mask mandate went into effect on July 3, then a spike occurred, which hit a peak on July 12th. That's consistent with the interpretation I mentioned. It doesn't make sense to use the day after a mandate takes effect as a reference, because there's roughly a 2-week period between when a person catches COVID and when they exhibit symptoms or require hospitalization. The July 12th is a little less than 2 weeks after the mandate began, enough time for anyone who already had the virus before the mandate to exhibit symptoms. As for the 2nd link you posted, graphs like these are useless without additional context on what was happening in those communities at the time. We don't know if people were actually following the mandate or not, how frequently they were taking their masks off, whether they were engaging in other behavior which would put them at risk for COVID exposure, etc. Until you can control for those variables, it's hard to take these graphs as evidence that masks don't work. Indeed, mask mandates will be useless if enough people don't follow them, or if people attend a super-spreader event in their area, or if any number of other things happen. That's... kind of my point. You claim that "If mask mandates worked, they'd have a clear impact on incidence graphs". How do you know they didn't have an impact on incidence graphs? It's entirely possible that the spikes in those charts would have been even more severe without a mask mandate. There are hardly "no results to show for" masks, as you say. Indeed, the first tweet you linked to is someone replying to exactly that kind of evidence.[1] The TL;DR is "The governor of Kansas issued an executive order requiring wearing masks in public spaces, effective July 3, 2020, which was subject to county authority to opt out. After July 3, COVID-19 incidence decreased in 24 counties with mask mandates but continued to increase in 81 counties without mask mandates." "Masks don't work at all" is a pretty bold statement considering the sources you posted are a collection of Twitter accounts belonging to people of unknown expertise. But don't listen to me, I'm not an expert either. Listen to the people who do this kind of thing for a living and who know what they're talking about. They know more than we do about their chosen field. There is a general consensus among serious experts that masks do work.[2][3][4][5][6] Or if appeals to authority aren't your cup of tea, here[7] is an explanation of how masks work, specifically how they help filter and trap particles which carry COVID. If you still believe masks don't work, I'd love to see your rebuttal to the specific points that this NY Times article makes. I'm open to being proved wrong. 1. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8 3. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm 4. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/i... 5. https://www.umms.org/coronavirus/what-to-know/masks/wearing-mask https://www.umms.org/coronavirus/what-to-know/masks/wearing-... 6. https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-abou... 7. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/30/science/wear-mask-covid-particles-ul.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/30/science/wear-...

thu2111 6y ago

Masks don't work at all so your whole premise is false, and there's a lot of lying about this unfortunately. Here's just one example: https://twitter.com/uncivengin/status/1337536854753595399/photo/1 https://twitter.com/uncivengin/status/1337536854753595399/ph... If mask mandates worked, they'd have a clear impact on incidence graphs. Many such graphs exist, none show any impact whatsoever - not even a small one. https://rationalground.com/mask-charts/ https://rationalground.com/mask-charts/ Nobody wants to throw up their hands and admit defeat. But the people who don't wear masks aren't "insane" as you put it. Rather ironically, the cliché definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over whilst expecting different results, isn't it? Mask mandates have been implemented everywhere and there are no results to show for it, which makes continuing them the insane act. It's certainly not immoral or unethical for people to not wear a mask, any more than it is for someone not to wear a cross around their neck.

toomanyrichies 6y ago
The tweet you linked to says "The masked counties had increases in cases after the mandate and used the high point as the reference for the decrease." If you're implying that this means masks have no effect, you should know that correlation does not equal causation. There are multiple interpretations for the data in the tweet, one of which is that local authorities (correctly) anticipated a spike in cases based on conditions and behavior in their community, and responded with a mask mandate, which took a little less than 2 weeks to have a noticeable impact. The graph in your linked tweet shows that a mask mandate went into effect on July 3, then a spike occurred, which hit a peak on July 12th. That's consistent with the interpretation I mentioned. It doesn't make sense to use the day after a mandate takes effect as a reference, because there's roughly a 2-week period between when a person catches COVID and when they exhibit symptoms or require hospitalization. The July 12th is a little less than 2 weeks after the mandate began, enough time for anyone who already had the virus before the mandate to exhibit symptoms. As for the 2nd link you posted, graphs like these are useless without additional context on what was happening in those communities at the time. We don't know if people were actually following the mandate or not, how frequently they were taking their masks off, whether they were engaging in other behavior which would put them at risk for COVID exposure, etc. Until you can control for those variables, it's hard to take these graphs as evidence that masks don't work. Indeed, mask mandates will be useless if enough people don't follow them, or if people attend a super-spreader event in their area, or if any number of other things happen. That's... kind of my point. You claim that "If mask mandates worked, they'd have a clear impact on incidence graphs". How do you know they didn't have an impact on incidence graphs? It's entirely possible that the spikes in those charts would have been even more severe without a mask mandate. There are hardly "no results to show for" masks, as you say. Indeed, the first tweet you linked to is someone replying to exactly that kind of evidence.[1] The TL;DR is "The governor of Kansas issued an executive order requiring wearing masks in public spaces, effective July 3, 2020, which was subject to county authority to opt out. After July 3, COVID-19 incidence decreased in 24 counties with mask mandates but continued to increase in 81 counties without mask mandates." "Masks don't work at all" is a pretty bold statement considering the sources you posted are a collection of Twitter accounts belonging to people of unknown expertise. But don't listen to me, I'm not an expert either. Listen to the people who do this kind of thing for a living and who know what they're talking about. They know more than we do about their chosen field. There is a general consensus among serious experts that masks do work.[2][3][4][5][6] Or if appeals to authority aren't your cup of tea, here[7] is an explanation of how masks work, specifically how they help filter and trap particles which carry COVID. If you still believe masks don't work, I'd love to see your rebuttal to the specific points that this NY Times article makes. I'm open to being proved wrong. 1. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8 3. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm 4. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/i... 5. https://www.umms.org/coronavirus/what-to-know/masks/wearing-mask https://www.umms.org/coronavirus/what-to-know/masks/wearing-... 6. https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-abou... 7. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/30/science/wear-mask-covid-particles-ul.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/30/science/wear-...