4 ms·

I think it's likely higher than that. With seroprevalence data suggesting a ratio of actual cases to deaths in the vicinity of 0.25%, and the ratio of confirme

I think it's likely higher than that. With seroprevalence data suggesting a ratio of actual cases to deaths in the vicinity of 0.25%, and the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths at more like 2%, that suggests that for every confirmed case, there is something like 5-10 actual cases (some of which are asymptomatic or mild, of course). It does cause one to wonder if we should try to concentrate the vaccine doses on the people who haven't already had it, so as to save the most lives with the limited supply available. Sure, it may be possible to catch it twice in a few cases, but the rate of that is far, far less than the rate of catching it if you _haven't_ already had it.

brohee 6y ago
0.25% IFR is for very young countries (why Africa is mostly spared). The situation is a lot direr with older populations... "In contrast, in a typical high income country, with a greater concentration of elderly individuals, we estimate the overall IFR to be 1.15%" from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-IFR/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...
- rossdavidh 6y ago
  The result which I saw, from John Ionaddis here https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf "Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%)" ...but I grant you that there is some uncertainty.