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I'd caution making this conclusion. Trump was a huge driver of turnout. I don't think the republican party is quite as strong without him on the ticket.

icelancer 6y ago
>> Trump was a huge driver of turnout. I don't think the republican party is quite as strong without him on the ticket. Neither are the Democrats without a clear enemy. Many left-leaning people voted Biden as an anti-Trump vote.
- DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
  For anecdata, I'm right-leaning and I too voted for Biden because he isn't trump.
SllX 6y ago
Considering this was an almost surgical removal of an unpopular President without a total rejection of the President's party, I feel pretty confident in my statement, but who knows, anything can happen between now and 2022 and 2024. It certainly wasn't the blue wave anybody thought it would be this year, nor in 2018. One thing I'm not holding my breath for in 2022 is seeing the Democrats in the House leverage their decreased majority into a larger majority, or even retaining the House considering mid-terms are always a bad time to be a member of the President's party. That, and after this past election there is a net increase in the number Republican trifecta States, an increase in the number of States under Republican Governors, and redistricting season will soon begin.
- ntsplnkv2 6y ago
  > unpopular President Who set a record for votes. He wasn't unpopular, he was the 2nd most popular candidate ever. People like to undersell how well the democrats did in 2018 and in 2020. Georgia going blue, Arizona going blue, and the blue wall getting rebuilt...it's pretty impressive. They kept the house, and may yet still win the senate. The districts are already stacked against democrats as is. Republicans won't gain much from redistricting.
  - SllX 6y ago
    > Who set a record for votes. He wasn't unpopular, he was the 2nd most popular candidate ever. You have a point, but let me ask you: if a bag of rice had been the Republican Presidential incumbent in place of Donald J. Trump, do you think Biden would have received a record-setting number of votes? Maybe I'm wrong about this, but it seems to me Trump's unpopularity was as much a factor in Biden winning as anything else that, and maybe that's because I live in a blue bubble, but even conservative outlets I followed were expecting the Republicans to be absolutely crushed this election and to go down in flames with the President, and they weren't. Not even close. Republicans didn't regain the House, but they saw net gains, and they retained a full 50% of the Senate. Harris's vote is only relevant if the Democrats can win in the Georgia runoff on January 6th, not just one, but both seats, otherwise she's just another President of the Senate without a vote. Considering that election is still an open question, it is a bit early to be calling Georgia a blue state. Elections are more than just the President after all, and Red and Blue States are only really Red and Blue after they've demonstrated a continuous unbroken Red or Blue streak for a few cycles. So again, if the Republican Presidential incumbent was a bag of rice, would we have 1. seen record-breaking turnout in favor of both candidates and 2. a loss by the incumbent? I ask, and maybe this is just because I live in a blue bubble inside a blue bubble, because it seems to me much of the public turned out to register a vote of no confidence in the President more than they turned out to vote specifically for Biden. I wouldn't say most of Biden's votes were this, but enough to swing the election in a few key States? I think that's plausible.
    - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
      I think, by and large, you look at polls, and set your expectations. You say "I expected the republicans to be crushed, they weren't, so it must be true that the democrats didn't perform well." I think a lot of democrats did the same - but it wasn't truly realistic. I'd say the republicans were beaten pretty badly. I think they are at their worst point in decades. They managed to get their largest turnout ever, and didn't even flip the house. States that were red for decades flipped blue. And if the two runoffs are losses, that is a devastating blow, losing all levels of the federal government. 50% is not 50% without the white house. I don't think the memory of Trump will go away that quickly. This election mobilized a lot of young voters, and now that they've seen their vote got rid of him, they will be more motivated to vote again for more progressive agendas, or against more radical right wing ones. I don't think the rural republicans (Which is really where trump got most of his boost, anyway), will come out the same for a Mitt Romney. They want the guy who isn't afraid to tell it "like it is", be anti-BLM, etc. That is a major rift in the republican party that will further impact who they put up as candidates - and more rejection from the suburbs and cities will come.

icelancer 6y ago

>> Trump was a huge driver of turnout. I don't think the republican party is quite as strong without him on the ticket. Neither are the Democrats without a clear enemy. Many left-leaning people voted Biden as an anti-Trump vote.

DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
For anecdata, I'm right-leaning and I too voted for Biden because he isn't trump.

SllX 6y ago

Considering this was an almost surgical removal of an unpopular President without a total rejection of the President's party, I feel pretty confident in my statement, but who knows, anything can happen between now and 2022 and 2024. It certainly wasn't the blue wave anybody thought it would be this year, nor in 2018. One thing I'm not holding my breath for in 2022 is seeing the Democrats in the House leverage their decreased majority into a larger majority, or even retaining the House considering mid-terms are always a bad time to be a member of the President's party. That, and after this past election there is a net increase in the number Republican trifecta States, an increase in the number of States under Republican Governors, and redistricting season will soon begin.

ntsplnkv2 6y ago
> unpopular President Who set a record for votes. He wasn't unpopular, he was the 2nd most popular candidate ever. People like to undersell how well the democrats did in 2018 and in 2020. Georgia going blue, Arizona going blue, and the blue wall getting rebuilt...it's pretty impressive. They kept the house, and may yet still win the senate. The districts are already stacked against democrats as is. Republicans won't gain much from redistricting.
- SllX 6y ago
  > Who set a record for votes. He wasn't unpopular, he was the 2nd most popular candidate ever. You have a point, but let me ask you: if a bag of rice had been the Republican Presidential incumbent in place of Donald J. Trump, do you think Biden would have received a record-setting number of votes? Maybe I'm wrong about this, but it seems to me Trump's unpopularity was as much a factor in Biden winning as anything else that, and maybe that's because I live in a blue bubble, but even conservative outlets I followed were expecting the Republicans to be absolutely crushed this election and to go down in flames with the President, and they weren't. Not even close. Republicans didn't regain the House, but they saw net gains, and they retained a full 50% of the Senate. Harris's vote is only relevant if the Democrats can win in the Georgia runoff on January 6th, not just one, but both seats, otherwise she's just another President of the Senate without a vote. Considering that election is still an open question, it is a bit early to be calling Georgia a blue state. Elections are more than just the President after all, and Red and Blue States are only really Red and Blue after they've demonstrated a continuous unbroken Red or Blue streak for a few cycles. So again, if the Republican Presidential incumbent was a bag of rice, would we have 1. seen record-breaking turnout in favor of both candidates and 2. a loss by the incumbent? I ask, and maybe this is just because I live in a blue bubble inside a blue bubble, because it seems to me much of the public turned out to register a vote of no confidence in the President more than they turned out to vote specifically for Biden. I wouldn't say most of Biden's votes were this, but enough to swing the election in a few key States? I think that's plausible.
  - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
    I think, by and large, you look at polls, and set your expectations. You say "I expected the republicans to be crushed, they weren't, so it must be true that the democrats didn't perform well." I think a lot of democrats did the same - but it wasn't truly realistic. I'd say the republicans were beaten pretty badly. I think they are at their worst point in decades. They managed to get their largest turnout ever, and didn't even flip the house. States that were red for decades flipped blue. And if the two runoffs are losses, that is a devastating blow, losing all levels of the federal government. 50% is not 50% without the white house. I don't think the memory of Trump will go away that quickly. This election mobilized a lot of young voters, and now that they've seen their vote got rid of him, they will be more motivated to vote again for more progressive agendas, or against more radical right wing ones. I don't think the rural republicans (Which is really where trump got most of his boost, anyway), will come out the same for a Mitt Romney. They want the guy who isn't afraid to tell it "like it is", be anti-BLM, etc. That is a major rift in the republican party that will further impact who they put up as candidates - and more rejection from the suburbs and cities will come.