5 ms·

>It isn't the most impressive of plagues. It really is though. If it were more deadly like Ebola, people would be taking it far more seriously and it would bur

>It isn't the most impressive of plagues. It really is though. If it were more deadly like Ebola, people would be taking it far more seriously and it would burn itself out quicker. If it were less deadly, akin to the flu, we wouldn't have too many deaths regardless. It seems to sit right in the sweet spot of just deadly enough to cause mass casualties while being benign enough that a large portion of people don't take it seriously, and thus contribute to it's uncontrollable spread. This will easily end up killing more Americans than the 1918 flu by the end of next year.

swayvil 6y ago
I seriously doubt that.
- ska 6y ago
  At current rates that would happen 4 months from now; it's hard to see how that's not at least plausible.
  - pashamur 6y ago
    > At current rates that would happen 4 months from now; it's hard to see how that's not at least plausible. * Normalized by population though, you would be looking at today's equivalent of ~2.15 million deaths in the US from the 1918 flu.
    - ska 6y ago
      Sure, but that wasn’t the claim.
rolph 6y ago
this virus replicates and transmits on average BEFORE symptoms occur. it doesnt matter how lethal or not such a virus is, it will not burn itself out simply because mortality and morbidity occur after incubation and transmission. in such a case the lethality of the virus does not result in a negative selection, as there is no selective pressure on transmissibilty when it occurs before you even feel sick. host immunity is what will make this virus burn out.
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  I think there is still quite a lot of debate among epidemiologists about asymptomatic transmission. It might not be as common as is being portrayed.
  - rolph 6y ago
    i doesnt matter how uncommon it is , morbidity after transmission occurs is an escape from selection. also: "Previous studies reported that viral shedding can begin before the appearance of COVID-19 symptoms (8,9), and evidence of transmission from presymptomatic and asymptomatic persons has been reported in epidemiologic studies of SARS-CoV-2 (5,10,11). Because KCDC performed strong infection control procedures during boarding; the medical staff and crew members were trained in infection control; all passengers, medical staff, and crew members were tested twice for SARS-CoV-2; and a precise epidemiologic investigation was conducted, the most plausible explanation for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to a passenger on the aircraft is that she became infected by an asymptomatic but infected passenger while using an onboard toilet. Other, less likely, explanations for the transmission are previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure, longer incubation period, and other unevaluated situations. " https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-3353_article#r1 https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-3353_article#r1 asymptomatic transmission is not FUD it is very real. what has not been expounded clearly enough is that the virus is inducing second order effects that are latent to incubation and transmission. the reproductive process of the virus is minimally damaging, with respect to the immuno sequelae when it comes to the chase this is not about asymptomatic transmission, this is about presymptomatic transmission.
    - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
      i doesnt matter how uncommon it is Actually it really does matter. Just like the anecdotes of people becoming re-infected. These things often get presented in the media as if they are common but turn out to be rare. I don't know if that's the case regarding asymptomatic transmission or not but there is an ongoing debate about it.
      - 6y ago

swayvil 6y ago

I seriously doubt that.

ska 6y ago
At current rates that would happen 4 months from now; it's hard to see how that's not at least plausible.
- pashamur 6y ago
  > At current rates that would happen 4 months from now; it's hard to see how that's not at least plausible. * Normalized by population though, you would be looking at today's equivalent of ~2.15 million deaths in the US from the 1918 flu.
  - ska 6y ago
    Sure, but that wasn’t the claim.

rolph 6y ago

this virus replicates and transmits on average BEFORE symptoms occur. it doesnt matter how lethal or not such a virus is, it will not burn itself out simply because mortality and morbidity occur after incubation and transmission. in such a case the lethality of the virus does not result in a negative selection, as there is no selective pressure on transmissibilty when it occurs before you even feel sick. host immunity is what will make this virus burn out.

tonyedgecombe 6y ago
I think there is still quite a lot of debate among epidemiologists about asymptomatic transmission. It might not be as common as is being portrayed.
- rolph 6y ago
  i doesnt matter how uncommon it is , morbidity after transmission occurs is an escape from selection. also: "Previous studies reported that viral shedding can begin before the appearance of COVID-19 symptoms (8,9), and evidence of transmission from presymptomatic and asymptomatic persons has been reported in epidemiologic studies of SARS-CoV-2 (5,10,11). Because KCDC performed strong infection control procedures during boarding; the medical staff and crew members were trained in infection control; all passengers, medical staff, and crew members were tested twice for SARS-CoV-2; and a precise epidemiologic investigation was conducted, the most plausible explanation for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to a passenger on the aircraft is that she became infected by an asymptomatic but infected passenger while using an onboard toilet. Other, less likely, explanations for the transmission are previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure, longer incubation period, and other unevaluated situations. " https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-3353_article#r1 https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-3353_article#r1 asymptomatic transmission is not FUD it is very real. what has not been expounded clearly enough is that the virus is inducing second order effects that are latent to incubation and transmission. the reproductive process of the virus is minimally damaging, with respect to the immuno sequelae when it comes to the chase this is not about asymptomatic transmission, this is about presymptomatic transmission.
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    i doesnt matter how uncommon it is Actually it really does matter. Just like the anecdotes of people becoming re-infected. These things often get presented in the media as if they are common but turn out to be rare. I don't know if that's the case regarding asymptomatic transmission or not but there is an ongoing debate about it.
    - 6y ago