6 ms·

This is both shocking and promising. Looks like the rate is normalizing relative to previous years. That means the steps we're taking, treatments, etc. are wo

This is both shocking and promising. Looks like the rate is normalizing relative to previous years. That means the steps we're taking, treatments, etc. are working.

lutorm 6y ago
Another interpretation is that the most vulnerable have already been culled, so now the virus has to work harder.
- jessaustin 6y ago
  Another is that respiratory pandemics cause "waves" of mortality... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoratio...
dave5104 6y ago
In a more morbid observation, the 2020 data in that chart ends on Nov 1, 2020. I would be surprised if the 2020 line doesn't jump right back up again once the rest of November and post-Thanksgiving numbers are added in given that we're seeing large numbers of reported deaths again in recent weeks.
PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
I think you're being misled here. The steps we're taking to prevent covid19 are also having a dramatic impact on the spread of other respiratory infections. It's not so much that covid19 is under control - it's that our attempts to control it are suppressing deaths from flu etc.
- timeeater 6y ago
  Or they are all counted as Covid. If you go to the physician with a respiratory disease, they will test for Covid first. Will they still test for the flu? What about people who get to the hospital because of the flu and get infected with Covid there? How will they be counted? How come number of Covid infection rates is rising, while flu seems to be eradicated? If the measures help against the flu, why not against Covid?
  - PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
    Completely irrelevant. The graph under discussion is excess mortality, without cause.
    - timeeater 6y ago
      It's relevant to your claim that deaths from other diseases have been reduced because of the anti-covid measures.
      - PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
        No, it's not. The graph shows mortality rates without cause. Excess mortality rates are not that high at present, meaning that the total number of deaths is not that much above the expected death rate based on historical numbers. But imagine the "extreme" case where excess mortality is zero - that is, even with covid19, about the same number of people die every day. That would mean, presumably, that since covid19 causes some deaths that would not have happened historically (it doesn't matter what you think that number is) it would have to be balanced by some decrease in "more normal" deaths. Obviously, one could propose all kinds of mechanisms that might lead to this. One could suggest that because people are either disgusted by or rallying around Trump, death rates are different. One could suggest that the impending conjuction of Saturn & Jupiter on Dec 21st has reduced death rates from non-covid19 causes. And to be sure, at present, there doesn't seem to be a particularly good way to establish this. But it also seems rather reasonable to say that since the biggest change in human behavior at this point has been driven by attempts to contain covid19, that it is likely these changes that have caused the "balancing" decrease in non-covid19 deaths. One obvious rebuttal is that the graph does NOT show no excess mortality. This is certainly true. But the magnitude of the it is smaller than would be expected from even the most, ahem, conservative estimates of covid19 deaths. Ergo, there is some reduction in non-covid19 deaths, and occam's razor would put changes due to anti-covid measures near the top of the list of likely causes for that.
        newsgourmet 6y ago
hansjorg 6y ago
Looking at graphs of daily deaths which extend beyond that one, that is just the through before the next big wave.
gwittel 6y ago
Note the US data for 2020 ends in early November; before the large November surge. I would not take that much comfort given the surge in case counts. I don't doubt we are better handling cases now vs April, at the same time hospitals will soon hit the triage stage. Positive tests tend to trail exposure by 1-2 weeks, while hospitalizations trail another week or two behind positive tests. Deaths can lag even further (not sure on the numbers here). So we're only just getting into the beginning of the post-Thanksgiving spike impacting hospitals. While most serious cases hit those with compounding factors (age, health, etc.) if you look at the percent of excess deaths, it spans all age groups (again data ends early Nov): https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-by-age?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=USA-0~USA-1~USA-2~USA-3&region=World https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores... The other good resource is John Hopkins has a chart overlaying date of policy changes vs cases (or deaths): https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/california https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirme...

This is both shocking and promising. Looks like the rate is normalizing relative to previous years. That means the steps we're taking, treatments, etc. are working.

lutorm 6y ago

Another interpretation is that the most vulnerable have already been culled, so now the virus has to work harder.

jessaustin 6y ago
Another is that respiratory pandemics cause "waves" of mortality... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoratio...

dave5104 6y ago

In a more morbid observation, the 2020 data in that chart ends on Nov 1, 2020. I would be surprised if the 2020 line doesn't jump right back up again once the rest of November and post-Thanksgiving numbers are added in given that we're seeing large numbers of reported deaths again in recent weeks.

PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago

I think you're being misled here. The steps we're taking to prevent covid19 are also having a dramatic impact on the spread of other respiratory infections. It's not so much that covid19 is under control - it's that our attempts to control it are suppressing deaths from flu etc.

timeeater 6y ago
Or they are all counted as Covid. If you go to the physician with a respiratory disease, they will test for Covid first. Will they still test for the flu? What about people who get to the hospital because of the flu and get infected with Covid there? How will they be counted? How come number of Covid infection rates is rising, while flu seems to be eradicated? If the measures help against the flu, why not against Covid?
- PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
  Completely irrelevant. The graph under discussion is excess mortality, without cause.
  - timeeater 6y ago
    It's relevant to your claim that deaths from other diseases have been reduced because of the anti-covid measures.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
      No, it's not. The graph shows mortality rates without cause. Excess mortality rates are not that high at present, meaning that the total number of deaths is not that much above the expected death rate based on historical numbers. But imagine the "extreme" case where excess mortality is zero - that is, even with covid19, about the same number of people die every day. That would mean, presumably, that since covid19 causes some deaths that would not have happened historically (it doesn't matter what you think that number is) it would have to be balanced by some decrease in "more normal" deaths. Obviously, one could propose all kinds of mechanisms that might lead to this. One could suggest that because people are either disgusted by or rallying around Trump, death rates are different. One could suggest that the impending conjuction of Saturn & Jupiter on Dec 21st has reduced death rates from non-covid19 causes. And to be sure, at present, there doesn't seem to be a particularly good way to establish this. But it also seems rather reasonable to say that since the biggest change in human behavior at this point has been driven by attempts to contain covid19, that it is likely these changes that have caused the "balancing" decrease in non-covid19 deaths. One obvious rebuttal is that the graph does NOT show no excess mortality. This is certainly true. But the magnitude of the it is smaller than would be expected from even the most, ahem, conservative estimates of covid19 deaths. Ergo, there is some reduction in non-covid19 deaths, and occam's razor would put changes due to anti-covid measures near the top of the list of likely causes for that.
      - newsgourmet 6y ago

hansjorg 6y ago

Looking at graphs of daily deaths which extend beyond that one, that is just the through before the next big wave.

gwittel 6y ago

Note the US data for 2020 ends in early November; before the large November surge. I would not take that much comfort given the surge in case counts. I don't doubt we are better handling cases now vs April, at the same time hospitals will soon hit the triage stage. Positive tests tend to trail exposure by 1-2 weeks, while hospitalizations trail another week or two behind positive tests. Deaths can lag even further (not sure on the numbers here). So we're only just getting into the beginning of the post-Thanksgiving spike impacting hospitals. While most serious cases hit those with compounding factors (age, health, etc.) if you look at the percent of excess deaths, it spans all age groups (again data ends early Nov): https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-by-age?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=USA-0~USA-1~USA-2~USA-3&region=World https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores... The other good resource is John Hopkins has a chart overlaying date of policy changes vs cases (or deaths): https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/california https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirme...