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Polish person here. Likely nothing until the current deposits are depleted, which is poised happen in the next 20 years: https://wysokienapiecie.pl/wp-content

by Tade0 6y ago

Polish person here. Likely nothing until the current deposits are depleted, which is poised happen in the next 20 years: https://wysokienapiecie.pl/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/wegiel_brunatny_polsce_2015.png https://wysokienapiecie.pl/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/wegiel... Brown coal is only commercially viable if it's not transported too far, so it's been in steady decline for years now(yellow line - brown coal production in Poland over the years): https://wysokienapiecie.pl/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/wydobycie_wegla_kamiennego_w_polsce_prognoza.png https://wysokienapiecie.pl/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/wydoby... To my knowledge no large new mines were opened in the past decade. All this brown coal will likely be replaced with imported hard coal, gas and electricity - currently 8% of the electricity consumed in Poland is imported - mostly from Germany and Sweden - at an average total rate of 1.2GW.

DrBazza 6y ago
Interesting, thanks.
oblio 6y ago
I guess if green energy provided by your neighbors becomes super cheap, you might just import it and shut down the coal plants. Should be feasible for 2025 - 2030.
- ed_balls 6y ago
  That will never happen for national security reasons. Even in 2050 I'd imagine 10% of the energy will come from carbon sources. You want to keep one gas plant open and one coal ready to start quickly. There could be war, natural disaster like volcano eruption that blocks the sun etc.
- Tade0 6y ago
  Imported energy is already cheaper than the one generated by coal plants - the only limiting factor is the capacity of connections. Meanwhile there's currently over 2.5GW of solar capacity in this country - most of which was built during the last two years when a subsidy program for residential installations was introduced. It so happens that coal plants cannot operate at full capacity during the summer due to cooling issues, so having more solar is actually pretty beneficial.

by Tade0 6y ago

DrBazza 6y ago

Interesting, thanks.

oblio 6y ago

I guess if green energy provided by your neighbors becomes super cheap, you might just import it and shut down the coal plants. Should be feasible for 2025 - 2030.

ed_balls 6y ago
That will never happen for national security reasons. Even in 2050 I'd imagine 10% of the energy will come from carbon sources. You want to keep one gas plant open and one coal ready to start quickly. There could be war, natural disaster like volcano eruption that blocks the sun etc.
Tade0 6y ago
Imported energy is already cheaper than the one generated by coal plants - the only limiting factor is the capacity of connections. Meanwhile there's currently over 2.5GW of solar capacity in this country - most of which was built during the last two years when a subsidy program for residential installations was introduced. It so happens that coal plants cannot operate at full capacity during the summer due to cooling issues, so having more solar is actually pretty beneficial.