That's the incubator/VC model - spread enough little bets around that you land on a few winners that result in almost all of the fund's returns. And it's certa

That's the incubator/VC model - spread enough little bets around that you land on a few winners that result in almost all of the fund's returns. And it's certainly possible that an experienced builder and investor like PG learns some heuristics and tricks along the way to increase the odds of landing on those few winners. That's basically what this article is about, recounting some of those of heuristics that led to YC investing in a startup whose idea they originally didn't even like. It's not about spotting that one survivor, it's about spreading enough bets with effective enough heuristics to ensure a high positive overall EV of the aggregate of all your bets.